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Greentree Hospitality Group
(NYSE:GHG)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$0.95
â–¼(-14.50% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/03/26
The score is held back primarily by the sharp TTM profitability step-down and negative free cash flow, along with a clearly bearish technical trend (below major moving averages and negative MACD). These risks are partially offset by an improved-but-still-meaningful balance sheet position, steady operating cash flow, and a supportive valuation profile (moderate P/E and high dividend yield).
Positive Factors
Asset-light franchising model
The asset-light model allows GHG to expand its branded hotel network without owning every property, while recurring franchise and management services can support scalable revenue. Network services, distribution and operating support also deepen relationships with hotel owners over time.
Negative Factors
Revenue and hotel metrics declining
Lower occupancy, room rates and RevPAR directly pressure franchise-linked activity and hotel operating economics across the network. If these declines persist, they can reduce fee generation, weaken owner returns and make continued property expansion harder to translate into revenue.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Asset-light franchising model
The asset-light model allows GHG to expand its branded hotel network without owning every property, while recurring franchise and management services can support scalable revenue. Network services, distribution and operating support also deepen relationships with hotel owners over time.
Read all positive factors
Greentree Hospitality Group (GHG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$103.92M
Dividend Yield6.38%
Average Volume (3M)9.56K
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.6
Beta (1Y)0.90
Revenue Growth-17.78%
EPS Growth-77.82%
CountryUS
Employees2,287
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryTravel Lodging
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.42
Shares Outstanding66,780,610
10 Day Avg. Volume11,545
30 Day Avg. Volume9,556
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.14
Price to Book (P/B)0.76
Price to Sales (P/S)1.09
P/FCF Ratio59.54
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)4.29
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.71B
Greentree Hospitality Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. is a prominent hotel operator in the People's Republic of China, engaging in the development and management of accommodations under its GreenTree brand. The company's portfolio comprises both directly owned and lea...
How the Company Makes Money
GHG primarily makes money through an asset-light hotel franchising and management model. Its key revenue streams typically include: (1) Franchise and related fees paid by franchised hotels for the right to use GHG’s brands and to access its centra...
Greentree Hospitality Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 24, 2025
(Q4-2024)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a mixed sentiment. While there are significant strategic expansions and improvements in cash flow and membership growth, these are overshadowed by declines in revenue and profitability in both the Hotel and Restaurant segments. The strategic shift in the Restaurant business and focus on mid to upscale hotels are positive, but the revenue and RevPAR declines present challenges.Positive Updates
Expansion Plans for 2025
GreenTree plans to open 480 new hotels in 2025, marking a 20% increase from 2024. This expansion is part of their strategic focus on the mid to upscale segments and rejuvenating their existing portfolio.
Negative Updates
Decline in RevPAR and Revenue
Hotel RevPAR decreased by 9.6% and total revenue fell by 18.2% to RMB 304 million due to the closure of 12 hotels and lower performance metrics.
Read all updates
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive
Negative
Expansion Plans for 2025
GreenTree plans to open 480 new hotels in 2025, marking a 20% increase from 2024. This expansion is part of their strategic focus on the mid to upscale segments and rejuvenating their existing portfolio.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the GreenTree Hospitality Group Limited Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2024 Financial Results Conference Call, the company provided guidance for the upcoming fiscal year 2025. They plan to open approximately 480 new hotels, reflecting a 20% increase from 405 in 2024, while closing about 200 hotels, resulting in a net addition of 280 hotels. For the Restaurant business, GreenTree aims to open 60 new restaurants, focusing on Franchised and Managed Street stores. The company expects total revenues of their Organic Hotel business for 2025 to be flat compared to 2024, with RevPAR anticipated to remain stable after a 5% decline in the first quarter. Additionally, the company highlighted strategic efforts to rejuvenate and upgrade their hotel portfolio by summer 2026 and continue the phased closure of leased and managed hotels in lower-tier cities.Greentree Hospitality Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2023 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 980.45M | 1.10B | 1.34B | 1.63B | 945.14M | 1.97B |
| Gross Profit | 339.87M | 382.96M | 520.85M | 679.82M | 351.12M | 554.77M |
| EBITDA | 113.73M | 301.65M | 319.26M | 511.30M | -350.84M | 330.12M |
| Net Income | 7.57M | 166.79M | 110.00M | 269.32M | -425.15M | 88.71M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.80B | 4.79B | 4.95B | 5.07B | 5.68B | 4.67B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.98B | 1.66B | 1.49B | 1.21B | 926.64M | 1.01B |
| Total Debt | 1.51B | 1.47B | 1.71B | 1.83B | 2.25B | 708.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 3.14B | 3.18B | 3.45B | 3.59B | 4.03B | 2.62B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.63B | 1.58B | 1.46B | 1.44B | 1.61B | 1.86B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -22.16M | 20.07M | 293.76M | 366.55M | 212.59M | -200.29M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 258.31M | 274.11M | 373.38M | 455.05M | 281.71M | 360.98M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -216.27M | -61.07M | 345.39M | -93.71M | 438.96M | -928.39M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 5.00M | -42.24M | 10.53M | -303.73M | -341.90M | 240.33M |
Greentree Hospitality Group Technical Analysis
Negative
1.11
Price Trends
1.08
Negative
1.12
Negative
1.27
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.02
Positive
29.45
Positive
25.48
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GHG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.11 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.03, above the 50-day MA of 1.08, and below the 200-day MA of 1.27, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.45 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.48 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GHG.
Greentree Hospitality Group Risk Analysis
Greentree Hospitality Group disclosed 76 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Greentree Hospitality Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Greentree Hospitality Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $4.44B | 15.13 | 54.74% | 2.79% | 45.01% | 48.02% | |
77 Outperform | $12.97B | 17.31 | 40.36% | 5.19% | 13.03% | 37.67% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $4.60B | 14.38 | 214.91% | 1.12% | 2.65% | 8.53% | |
55 Neutral | $5.31B | 26.01 | 42.06% | 2.37% | -2.21% | -35.98% | |
52 Neutral | $103.92M | 15.63 | 0.47% | 6.38% | -17.78% | -77.82% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
GHG
Greentree Hospitality Group
0.94
-1.22
-56.48%
HTHT
H World Group
41.78
5.13
13.99%
CHH
Choice Hotels
102.50
-0.29
-0.28%
WH
Wyndham Hotels & Resorts
71.79
-7.44
-9.39%
ATAT
Atour Lifestyle Holdings
32.26
-3.10
-8.77%
Greentree Hospitality Group Corporate Events
GreenTree Hospitality Group Q2 2026 Profit Slumps as Revenue and Key Operating Metrics Decline
Aug 25, 2026
On August 24, 2026, GreenTree Hospitality Group reported unaudited results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026, showing a sharp revenue contraction amid weaker hotel and restaurant metrics. Total revenues fell 18.7% year over year to RMB235...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.