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Greentree Hospitality Group Ltd (GHG)
NYSE:GHG
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Greentree Hospitality Group (GHG) AI Stock Analysis

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GHG

Greentree Hospitality Group

(NYSE:GHG)

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Neutral 59 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$1.00
â–¼(-39.76% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/04/26
The score is driven primarily by stable but weakening fundamentals (declining revenue, lower net margin, and slightly negative free cash flow) and a soft longer-term technical trend (below the 100/200-day averages). These risks are partially offset by attractive valuation, supported by a low P/E and a high dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Healthy operating margins
Sustained double-digit EBITDA and wide gross margins provide an ongoing profitability buffer versus cyclical RevPAR swings. High operating margins enable the company to cover fixed costs, invest in brand/support systems, and preserve cash generation even if top-line growth is weak.
Negative Factors
Sustained revenue declines
A multi-period top-line contraction indicates structural demand or pricing pressure in the core budget/mid-scale segment. Persisting RevPAR and revenue weakness reduces franchise fees and company-operated room revenue, undermining growth prospects and scale benefits over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Healthy operating margins
Sustained double-digit EBITDA and wide gross margins provide an ongoing profitability buffer versus cyclical RevPAR swings. High operating margins enable the company to cover fixed costs, invest in brand/support systems, and preserve cash generation even if top-line growth is weak.
Read all positive factors

Greentree Hospitality Group (GHG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Greentree Hospitality Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. is a prominent hotel operator in the People's Republic of China, engaging in the development and management of accommodations under its GreenTree brand. The company's portfolio comprises both directly owned and lea...
How the Company Makes Money
GHG makes money primarily by expanding and monetizing a hotel network through a mix of owned/leased-and-operated hotels and franchised/managed hotels. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) room and ancillary revenue from hotels that GHG direc...

Greentree Hospitality Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 24, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 17, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a mixed sentiment. While there are significant strategic expansions and improvements in cash flow and membership growth, these are overshadowed by declines in revenue and profitability in both the Hotel and Restaurant segments. The strategic shift in the Restaurant business and focus on mid to upscale hotels are positive, but the revenue and RevPAR declines present challenges.
Positive Updates
Expansion Plans for 2025
GreenTree plans to open 480 new hotels in 2025, marking a 20% increase from 2024. This expansion is part of their strategic focus on the mid to upscale segments and rejuvenating their existing portfolio.
Negative Updates
Decline in RevPAR and Revenue
Hotel RevPAR decreased by 9.6% and total revenue fell by 18.2% to RMB 304 million due to the closure of 12 hotels and lower performance metrics.
Read all updates
Q4-2024 Updates
Negative
Expansion Plans for 2025
GreenTree plans to open 480 new hotels in 2025, marking a 20% increase from 2024. This expansion is part of their strategic focus on the mid to upscale segments and rejuvenating their existing portfolio.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the GreenTree Hospitality Group Limited Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2024 Financial Results Conference Call, the company provided guidance for the upcoming fiscal year 2025. They plan to open approximately 480 new hotels, reflecting a 20% increase from 405 in 2024, while closing about 200 hotels, resulting in a net addition of 280 hotels. For the Restaurant business, GreenTree aims to open 60 new restaurants, focusing on Franchised and Managed Street stores. The company expects total revenues of their Organic Hotel business for 2025 to be flat compared to 2024, with RevPAR anticipated to remain stable after a 5% decline in the first quarter. Additionally, the company highlighted strategic efforts to rejuvenate and upgrade their hotel portfolio by summer 2026 and continue the phased closure of leased and managed hotels in lower-tier cities.

Greentree Hospitality Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Profitability is positive following the 2022 loss year, with healthy EBITDA margin (~24.7% TTM) and decent gross margins. However, fundamentals have softened: revenue declined across the last three periods (TTM -5.9%), net margin fell from ~16.6% (2023) to ~8.4% (TTM), and free cash flow turned slightly negative (~-2.5M TTM) despite positive operating cash flow (~287M TTM). Debt remains meaningful (~1.5B) with debt-to-equity ~0.95 TTM, which matters more if revenue weakness persists.
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
BreakdownMar 2026Mar 2025Dec 2023Mar 2023Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.10B1.34B1.63B945.14M1.97B
Gross Profit382.96M520.85M679.82M351.12M554.77M
EBITDA301.65M319.26M511.30M-350.84M330.12M
Net Income166.79M110.00M269.32M-425.15M88.71M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets4.79B4.95B5.07B5.68B4.67B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.66B1.49B1.21B926.64M1.01B
Total Debt1.47B1.71B1.83B2.25B708.00M
Total Liabilities3.18B3.45B3.59B4.03B2.62B
Stockholders Equity1.58B1.46B1.44B1.61B1.86B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow20.07M293.76M366.55M212.59M-200.29M
Operating Cash Flow274.11M373.38M455.05M281.71M360.98M
Investing Cash Flow-61.07M345.39M-93.71M438.96M-928.39M
Financing Cash Flow-42.24M10.53M-303.73M-341.90M240.33M

Greentree Hospitality Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price1.66
Price Trends
50DMA
1.18
Negative
100DMA
1.25
Negative
200DMA
1.55
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.01
Negative
RSI
48.66
Neutral
STOCH
66.67
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GHG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.14, above the 50-day MA of 1.18, and above the 200-day MA of 1.55, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GHG.

Greentree Hospitality Group Risk Analysis

Greentree Hospitality Group disclosed 76 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Greentree Hospitality Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Greentree Hospitality Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
72
Outperform
$4.43B16.4351.62%1.76%41.59%48.34%
66
Neutral
$12.93B4.8241.76%3.60%9.63%59.04%
65
Neutral
$5.11B15.04312.73%1.32%1.18%12.87%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
59
Neutral
$116.03M6.4910.48%2.85%-12.78%231.29%
59
Neutral
$6.17B32.7037.33%2.13%1.41%-40.51%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GHG
Greentree Hospitality Group
1.15
-1.03
-47.25%
HTHT
H World Group
42.14
9.73
30.01%
CHH
Choice Hotels
112.37
-17.70
-13.61%
WH
Wyndham Hotels & Resorts
82.41
-0.04
-0.04%
ATAT
Atour Lifestyle Holdings
32.22
-2.52
-7.25%

Greentree Hospitality Group Corporate Events

GreenTree Hospitality Posts Lower Q1 2026 Revenue but Stronger Profitability
Jun 30, 2026
GreenTree Hospitality Group reported unaudited financial results for the first quarter of 2026 on June 30, 2026, showing total revenues of RMB227.7 million, down 14.0% year over year, driven by lower hotel RevPAR, declines in restaurant average ch...
GreenTree Hospitality Posts Lower Q4 2025 Revenue but Expands Hotel Network
May 6, 2026
GreenTree Hospitality Group reported unaudited results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025 on April 28, 2026, showing a sharp slowdown in both its hotel and restaurant businesses. Fourth-quarter total revenue fell 24.9% year on year to RMB 2...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 04, 2026