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Greentree Hospitality Group Ltd (GHG)
NYSE:GHG
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Greentree Hospitality Group
(NYSE:GHG)
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Select Model
Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$2.00
▲(5.26% Upside)
Greentree Hospitality Group's overall stock score is primarily influenced by its financial performance and valuation. The company faces challenges in revenue growth and cash flow generation, but operational efficiency and a reasonable valuation provide some support. Technical analysis suggests a cautious outlook, with the stock trading below key moving averages.
Greentree Hospitality Group (GHG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$203.05M
Dividend Yield4.07%
Average Volume (3M)59.12K
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.3
Beta (1Y)0.69
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees2,339
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryTravel Lodging
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)N/A
Shares Outstanding66,780,610
10 Day Avg. Volume47,139
30 Day Avg. Volume59,117
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.29
Price to Book (P/B)1.30
Price to Sales (P/S)1.41
P/FCF Ratio6.46
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.10
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.18
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.49
Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.00
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$2.00Price Target Upside5.26% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
Greentree Hospitality Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd., through its subsidiaries, develops leased-and-operated, and franchised-and-managed hotels under the GreenTree brand in the People's Republic of China. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 66 leased-and-operated hotels with 7,064 rooms; and had franchised-and-managed hotels network consisting of 4,593 hotels with 330,089 rooms covering 367 cities in China, and an additional 1,225 hotels with 91,887 rooms that were contracted for or under development. The company was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China. GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. is a subsidiary of GreenTree Inns Hotel Management Group, Inc.
How the Company Makes MoneyGreentree Hospitality Group generates revenue primarily through hotel room bookings and management fees from its franchisees. The company operates on a franchise model, allowing independent hotel owners to use its brand and benefit from its marketing and operational support in exchange for a percentage of their revenue. Additionally, GHG earns income from ancillary services, such as food and beverage sales, event hosting, and partnerships with travel agencies and corporate clients for bulk bookings. The company also invests in expanding its property portfolio, increasing its revenue potential through new openings and strategic partnerships within the hospitality industry.
Greentree Hospitality Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Sep 30, 2025
(Q4-2024)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 19, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a mixed sentiment. While there are significant strategic expansions and improvements in cash flow and membership growth, these are overshadowed by declines in revenue and profitability in both the Hotel and Restaurant segments. The strategic shift in the Restaurant business and focus on mid to upscale hotels are positive, but the revenue and RevPAR declines present challenges.Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Expansion Plans for 2025
GreenTree plans to open 480 new hotels in 2025, marking a 20% increase from 2024. This expansion is part of their strategic focus on the mid to upscale segments and rejuvenating their existing portfolio.
Increase in Membership Programs
Individual memberships grew to 102 million from 91 million, and corporate memberships increased to 2.17 million from 2.05 million over the year.
Positive Cash Flow from Operations
Despite revenue declines, cash from operations increased year-over-year from negative RMB 13.5 million to RMB 74.2 million.
Profitability Improvement in Restaurant Business
Net income excluding impairments increased by 44.3% to RMB 18.9 million in the fourth quarter, indicating improved profitability due to strategic execution.
Strategic Shift in Restaurant Business
Franchised and Managed stores now account for almost 90% of all stores, up from 78% a year ago, with a focus on Street stores which now account for 50% of all stores, up from 40% last year.
Negative Updates
Decline in RevPAR and Revenue
Hotel RevPAR decreased by 9.6% and total revenue fell by 18.2% to RMB 304 million due to the closure of 12 hotels and lower performance metrics.
Decreased Hotel Segment Revenue
Hotel revenues decreased by 17.1% to RMB 240.2 million, impacted by the closure of 12 L&O hotels and a decrease in RevPAR.
Restaurant Revenue Decline
Restaurant revenues were RMB 65.1 million, a 25.8% year-over-year decrease, primarily due to the closure of L&O stores and a 16.8% decrease in ADS.
Increased Operating Costs in Restaurant Business
Total costs and expenses in the Restaurant business increased by 98.7% year-over-year due to the impairment of goodwill and trademarks.
Company Guidance
During the GreenTree Hospitality Group Limited Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2024 Financial Results Conference Call, the company provided guidance for the upcoming fiscal year 2025. They plan to open approximately 480 new hotels, reflecting a 20% increase from 405 in 2024, while closing about 200 hotels, resulting in a net addition of 280 hotels. For the Restaurant business, GreenTree aims to open 60 new restaurants, focusing on Franchised and Managed Street stores. The company expects total revenues of their Organic Hotel business for 2025 to be flat compared to 2024, with RevPAR anticipated to remain stable after a 5% decline in the first quarter. Additionally, the company highlighted strategic efforts to rejuvenate and upgrade their hotel portfolio by summer 2026 and continue the phased closure of leased and managed hotels in lower-tier cities.Greentree Hospitality Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Greentree Hospitality Group's financial performance shows a mix of strengths and weaknesses. The company has a decent gross profit margin and a balanced capital structure. However, challenges are evident in revenue growth and maintaining free cash flow, with a significant decline in revenue and free cash flow. The balance sheet remains stable, but declining equity and revenue suggest potential operational hurdles.Income Statement
Greentree Hospitality Group's income statement shows mixed results. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) Gross Profit Margin is approximately 38.76%, indicating decent profitability. However, the Net Profit Margin for the same period is around 8.19%, which is relatively low, suggesting challenges in maintaining strong bottom-line profitability. Revenue has decreased significantly in the TTM, showing a negative growth rate of approximately -17.46% from the previous year. This decline in revenue and profitability margins indicates potential operational challenges and market pressures.65
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet of Greentree Hospitality Group is relatively strong with a Debt-to-Equity ratio of approximately 1.18, indicating a balanced capital structure. The Return on Equity (ROE) for the TTM is around 7.54%, reflecting moderate efficiency in utilizing equity to generate profits. The Equity Ratio is approximately 29.48%, which shows a stable proportion of equity financing. However, the decrease in stockholders' equity over recent periods highlights potential risks in maintaining financial health.60
Neutral
Cash Flow
The cash flow statement exhibits a stable position with an Operating Cash Flow to Net Income ratio of 3.39 for the TTM, indicating strong cash flow generation relative to net income. The Free Cash Flow has decreased by approximately -19.85% compared to the previous period, reflecting challenges in maintaining free cash flow levels. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is 2.67, suggesting effective conversion of net income into free cash flow, despite the recent decrease.55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.25B | 1.34B | 1.63B | 945.14M | 1.97B | 930.01M |
| Gross Profit | 460.10M | 520.85M | 679.82M | 351.12M | 554.77M | 537.49M |
| EBITDA | 224.97M | 319.26M | 511.30M | -350.84M | 330.12M | 385.12M |
| Net Income | 190.88M | 110.00M | 269.32M | -425.15M | 88.71M | 261.34M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.19B | 4.95B | 5.07B | 5.10B | 4.73B | 4.09B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.67B | 1.49B | 1.21B | 873.49M | 1.01B | 1.16B |
| Total Debt | 1.77B | 1.71B | 1.83B | 2.25B | 708.00M | 150.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 3.50B | 3.45B | 3.59B | 3.61B | 2.60B | 1.85B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.66B | 1.46B | 1.44B | 1.61B | 1.95B | 2.10B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 214.48M | 293.76M | 366.55M | 212.59M | -200.29M | 184.49M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 318.30M | 373.38M | 455.05M | 281.71M | 360.98M | 297.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 51.71M | 345.39M | -93.71M | 438.96M | -928.39M | -115.60M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -71.91M | 10.53M | -303.73M | -341.90M | 240.33M | 117.53M |
Greentree Hospitality Group Technical Analysis
Negative
1.90
Price Trends
2.14
Negative
2.16
Negative
2.31
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.03
Positive
32.14
Neutral
11.03
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GHG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.9 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.15, below the 50-day MA of 2.14, and below the 200-day MA of 2.31, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.03 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GHG.
Greentree Hospitality Group Risk Analysis
Greentree Hospitality Group disclosed 76 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Greentree Hospitality Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks
1.
It may be difficult for overseas regulators to conduct investigation or collect evidence within China. Q4, 2022
2.
If the PCAOB determines that it is unable to inspect or investigate completely our auditor at any point in the future, our ADSs may be prohibited from trading in the United States under the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act, as amended, or the HFCA Act, and any such trading prohibition on our ADSs or threat thereof may materially and adversely affect the price of our ADSs and value of your investment. Q4, 2022
Greentree Hospitality Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $11.46B | 23.30 | 30.38% | 4.79% | 4.43% | 1.61% | |
72 Outperform | $5.91B | 18.15 | 56.16% | 2.12% | 3.65% | 38.50% | |
68 Neutral | $4.94B | 26.05 | 46.30% | 2.43% | 37.98% | 32.17% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $203.05M | 13.29 | 7.89% | 4.07% | ― | ― | |
59 Neutral | $4.62B | 15.31 | -661.94% | 1.16% | 1.67% | 35.34% | |
54 Neutral | $1.73B | ― | 49.70% | ― | 7.89% | 67.07% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
GHG
Greentree Hospitality Group
1.90
-1.21
-38.91%
HTHT
H World Group
37.18
-0.05
-0.13%
CHH
Choice Hotels
98.78
-34.30
-25.77%
WH
Wyndham Hotels & Resorts
75.83
-4.04
-5.06%
ATAT
Atour Lifestyle Holdings
34.87
7.27
26.34%
SHCO
Soho House & Co
8.85
3.54
66.67%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.