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Greene County Bancorp (GCBC) AI Stock Analysis

GCBC

Greene County Bancorp

(NASDAQ:GCBC)

Select Model
Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:$39.00â–²(9.06% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:10/21/26

The overall score of 72 reflects a financially sound regional bank with strong cash generation and a conservative balance sheet. The most significant positive factors are the excellent cash flow conversion and shareholder-friendly corporate actions, including a dividend raise and debt redemption. The primary risk is the ongoing decline in profitability margins, which prevents a higher score. The stock's reasonable valuation and neutral technical trends provide a stable backdrop.

Positive Factors
Revenue and Earnings GrowthSustained expansion in revenue and net income indicates that Greene County Bancorp is growing its banking franchise and converting that growth into profits. This strengthens internal funding capacity, supports continued investment in customer channels, and provides a durable base for future earnings.
Negative Factors
Margin CompressionThe decline in net margin shows that faster revenue growth has not fully translated into proportional profit expansion. Continued pressure on spread or operating economics could reduce earnings conversion, constrain capital generation, and make future results more sensitive to changes in banking conditions.

Greene County Bancorp (GCBC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%GCBC+63.68%SPY+11.79%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
$608.83M
Dividend Yield
1.15%
Average Volume (3M)
31.63K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
13.6
Beta (1Y)
0.64
Revenue Growth
7.77%
EPS Growth
32.33%
Country
US
Employees
215
Sector
Financial
Sector Strength
68
Industry
Banks - Regional

Greene County Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Greene County Bancorp, Inc. serves as the parent organization for The Bank of Greene County, delivering a diverse range of financial solutions throughout the United States. Its array of deposit products encompasses savings accounts, interest-bearing...

How the Company Makes Money

Greene County Bancorp primarily makes money through its banking subsidiary by (1) earning net interest income and (2) generating noninterest income. Net interest income is the core revenue stream for a community bank: it is the spread between interes...

Greene County Bancorp Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial performance is solid, driven by excellent cash flow generation and a strengthened balance sheet. Operating cash flow has grown consistently, and the debt-to-equity ratio has been significantly reduced. However, persistent margin compression, with net margin declining from 37.0% to 28.1%, is a key concern that tempers the score.

Income Statement

65Positive

Balance Sheet

72Positive

Cash Flow

78Positive
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMJun 2026Jun 2025Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue145.79M145.79M132.94M117.57M96.77M75.58M
Gross Profit90.55M90.55M74.04M64.12M74.44M66.86M
EBITDA47.97M47.97M35.73M27.75M36.70M33.73M
Net Income41.02M41.02M31.14M24.77M30.79M27.99M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.18B3.18B3.04B2.83B2.70B2.57B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments386.12M386.12M504.34M543.23M482.15M481.18M
Total Debt155.15M155.15M128.06M199.14M49.49M173.01M
Total Liabilities2.91B2.91B2.80B2.62B2.52B2.41B
Stockholders Equity277.83M277.83M238.84M206.00M183.28M157.71M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow41.56M41.56M27.29M23.40M26.57M34.30M
Operating Cash Flow42.30M42.30M27.98M24.91M28.11M35.35M
Investing Cash Flow-176.93M-176.93M-210.17M-129.24M661.00K-471.18M
Financing Cash Flow96.46M96.46M174.87M98.28M98.67M355.06M

Greene County Bancorp Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive
Last Price35.76

Price Trends

50DMA34.85Positive
100DMA33.74Positive
200DMA28.58Positive

Market Momentum

MACD0.35Negative
RSI58.21Neutral
STOCH53.13Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GCBC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 35.76 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.80, above the 50-day MA of 34.85, and above the 200-day MA of 28.58, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.35 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GCBC.

Greene County Bancorp Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

GCBC against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
OBTOBT75Outperform$518.75M10.3716.74%1.86%2.57%23.36%
AROWAROW73Outperform$710.57M14.479.63%3.10%13.56%26.96%
GCBCGCBC72Outperform$608.83M13.6516.39%1.15%7.77%32.33%
RBKBRBKB71Outperform$202.17M14.696.49%―9.53%103.97%
CHMGCHMG70Outperform$417.55M10.8214.49%1.60%18.42%190.13%
Sector *68Neutral$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
PBFSPBFS62Neutral$447.90M25.765.22%―16.32%-16.91%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

0%20%40%60%80%GCBCAROWCHMGRBKBPBFSOBTDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
GCBC and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
GCBCGreene County35.7613.8563.24%
AROWArrow Financial Corporation38.369.8534.57%
CHMGChemung Financial Corp86.2736.3772.87%
RBKBRhinebeck Bancorp12.935.7880.94%
PBFSPioneer Bancorp18.034.9237.53%
OBTOrange County Bancorp, Inc.38.6914.5160.03%

Greene County Bancorp Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyDividends

Greene County Bancorp Maintains Quarterly Dividend Payout Policy

Positive
Oct 21, 2026

On October 21, 2026, Greene County Bancorp, Inc. announced that its board approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.11 per share on common stock, maintaining an annual dividend rate of $0.44 per share, unchanged from the prior quarter. The dividend re...

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing

Greene County Bancorp Redeems Subordinated Notes to Optimize Capital

Positive
Sep 15, 2026

On September 15, 2026, Greene County Bancorp, Inc. redeemed $10.0 million in principal of its 3.00% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Subordinated Notes due September 15, 2031. The redemption was executed at par plus accrued and unpaid interest, and the company...

Business Operations and StrategyDividendsRegulatory Filings and Compliance

Greene County Bancorp Raises Quarterly Cash Dividend

Positive
Jul 22, 2026

On July 22, 2026, Greene County Bancorp, Inc. reported that its board had approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.11 per share on common stock for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, lifting the annual dividend rate to $0.44 per share from $0.40, a 10%...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 21, 2026