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NatWest Group (NWG) AI Stock Analysis
NatWest Group
(LSE:NWG)
The score is driven primarily by attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield) and a strong, confidence-leaning earnings call with maintained guidance, solid growth, and robust capital generation. These positives are tempered by financial-statement risk from volatile and recently negative cash flow and by weak technical momentum with the stock trading below key moving averages.
NatWest Group (NWG) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
- Market Cap
- GBP 45.84B
- Dividend Yield
- 6.04%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 19.82M
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 7.8
- Beta (1Y)
- 1.62
- Revenue Growth
- 3.44%
- EPS Growth
- 13.41%
- Country
- UK
- Employees
- 59,000
- Sector
- Financial
- Sector Strength
- 68
- Industry
- Banks - Regional
NatWest Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NatWest Group plc, a venerable financial institution established in Edinburgh, UK, in 1727, delivers a comprehensive array of banking and financial services. Serving a broad spectrum of clients, including individual consumers, small and medium-sized...
How the Company Makes Money
NatWest Group makes money mainly through banking spread and fee-based income across its customer segments. The largest driver is net interest income: the group earns interest on interest-bearing assets such as residential mortgages, personal and busi...
NatWest Group Earnings Call Summary
The call was strongly positive overall. NatWest reported broad-based balance-sheet growth, improving operating leverage, strong earnings and returns, resilient credit performance, high capital generation, and a robust capital and liquidity position. The main challenges were broadly stable margins, higher quarterly impairments, deposit growth lagging lending growth, mortgage-margin pressure, and a planned Q4 cost step-up, but management maintained its guidance and expressed confidence in continued growth and returns.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
2026 guidance remains unchanged, with one enhancement: full-year income, excluding notable items, of around GBP 17.9 billion; other operating expenses of around GBP 8.5 billion, including around GBP 300 million of costs from the Evelyn Partners acquisition; impairment below 25 basis points, with 20-30 basis points through the cycle; capital generation before distributions and the impact of Evelyn Partners of more than 240 basis points in 2026; a CET1 ratio of around 13%; and risk-weighted assets of around GBP 210 billion as at January 1, 2027. The group expects customer balance growth in line with greater than 4% CAL growth, NIM to be flatter in H2 and broadly stable through 2027, Bank of England bank rates to remain at 4% throughout 2027, the five-year swap rate to moderate to a 4% average for 2027, structural hedge income to be more than GBP 1 billion higher in 2027 versus 2026 and contribute over GBP 7 billion into the income line, and the mortgage book margin to settle around 60 basis points for the year.
NatWest Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong post-2020 profitability recovery and improved leverage trends support the score, but it is materially offset by highly volatile and most-recently negative operating/free cash flow, which raises questions about earnings durability despite solid reported profits.
Income Statement
78PositiveBalance Sheet
64PositiveCash Flow
38Negative| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 29.58B | 29.48B | 28.57B | 24.76B | 16.15B | 12.04B |
| Gross Profit | 16.97B | 16.61B | 14.65B | 14.78B | 13.35B | 10.34B |
| EBITDA | 9.10B | 8.86B | 7.25B | 7.11B | 5.96B | 4.77B |
| Net Income | 5.99B | 5.83B | 4.80B | 4.64B | 3.59B | 3.27B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 749.64B | 714.55B | 707.99B | 692.67B | 720.05B | 781.99B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 135.78B | 98.23B | 182.46B | 104.52B | 145.06B | 177.76B |
| Total Debt | 6.64B | 71.83B | 65.92B | 127.26B | 116.55B | 125.60B |
| Total Liabilities | 705.97B | 671.94B | 668.61B | 655.49B | 683.56B | 740.19B |
| Stockholders Equity | 39.08B | 38.03B | 39.35B | 37.16B | 36.49B | 41.80B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0 | -17.35B | 694.00M | -14.92B | -44.24B | 52.79B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0 | -16.68B | 1.77B | -13.37B | -43.60B | 53.69B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0 | -15.91B | -12.70B | -14.69B | 19.06B | 3.06B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0 | 22.41B | -1.89B | -23.52B | -10.65B | -2.60B |
NatWest Group Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:NWG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 593.60 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 642.99, below the 50-day MA of 670.31, and below the 200-day MA of 622.47, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -17.61 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.34 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:NWG.
NatWest Group Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
GB:LLOY71Outperform
GB:STAN70Outperform- GB:NWG70Outperform
GB:BARC68Neutral
GB:HSBA67Neutral
GB:VANQ51Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB:LLOY | 71Outperform | GBP 53.46B | 9.56 | 13.09% | 4.29% | -1.77% | 70.96% |
| GB:STAN | 70Outperform | GBP 44.52B | 11.47 | 11.30% | 2.50% | -9.55% | 21.01% |
| GB:NWG | 70Outperform | GBP 45.80B | 7.83 | 15.79% | 6.04% | 3.44% | 13.41% |
| GB:BARC | 68Neutral | GBP 55.20B | 8.20 | 10.79% | 2.77% | 6.60% | 23.56% |
| Sector * | 68Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
| GB:HSBA | 67Neutral | GBP 218.81B | 11.04 | 14.16% | 4.36% | -3.54% | 58.76% |
| GB:VANQ | 51Neutral | GBP 109.32M | 10.05 | 2.20% | ― | 6.21% | ― |
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB:NWG | Natwest Group Plc (Lse) | 592.20 | 38.70 | 6.99% | |
| GB:STAN | Standard Chartered | 2055.00 | 507.53 | 32.80% | |
| GB:BARC | Barclays plc | 424.10 | 26.97 | 6.79% | |
| GB:HSBA | Hsbc Holdings Plc (UK) | 1283.40 | 254.96 | 24.79% | |
| GB:LLOY | Lloyds Banking | 95.22 | 9.61 | 11.22% | |
| GB:VANQ | Vanquis Banking Group plc | 45.00 | -68.20 | -60.25% |
NatWest Group Corporate Events
NatWest Group Raises USD 1 Billion in Senior Notes to Fund Banking Operations
PositiveNatWest Group has priced a USD 1 billion issuance of 5.908% senior callable fixed-to-fixed reset rate notes due 2032, tapping U.S. dollar debt markets to bolster its funding profile. The proceeds will be used to support the group’s general bank...
NatWest advances buyback programme, cancels newly repurchased shares
PositiveNatWest Group has continued to execute its share buyback programme, purchasing several million ordinary shares over 7–9 October 2026 across venues including the London Stock Exchange, CHIX and BATE at volume‑weighted average prices around...
NatWest directors boost shareholdings in line with board policy
PositiveNatWest Group has disclosed that its chair and a number of independent non-executive directors have purchased ordinary shares in the bank on 1 October 2026, in line with the company’s Chairman and Non-executive Director shareholding policy. The...
NatWest Tightens Capital Structure With Ongoing Share Buyback
PositiveNatWest Group plc has continued to actively manage its equity base with a series of on-market repurchases of ordinary shares over the week to 2 October 2026, executed via UBS across the London Stock Exchange and alternative trading venues. The purcha...
NatWest Reports PDMR Share Purchase Under Employee Plan
PositiveNatWest Group disclosed a routine transaction under U.K. market abuse rules, involving its Buy As You Earn share plan for senior staff. The bank continues to emphasize governance and transparency around executive-related share dealings, underscoring...
NatWest Group Updates Investors on Share Capital and Voting Rights
NeutralNatWest Group plc is a leading U.K. banking and financial services provider, offering retail, commercial and corporate banking products to a wide range of customers. Its listed equity structure and adherence to Financial Conduct Authority disclosure...
NatWest Group Names New Chair for Performance and Remuneration Committee
PositiveNatWest Group plc has announced a change in board leadership, with Roisin Donnelly set to succeed Lena Wilson as Chair of the Group Performance and Remuneration Committee from 1 October 2026. Chair Rick Haythornthwaite praised Wilson’s leadersh...
NatWest Expands Share Buyback, Updates Voting Rights Count
PositiveNatWest Group has continued executing its share buyback programme, purchasing more than 3 million ordinary shares over the week of 22 to 25 September 2026 across the London Stock Exchange, CHIX and BATE venues. The shares were acquired from UBS under...
NatWest Directors Reinvest Dividend in Additional Shares
PositiveNatWest Group has disclosed share transactions by several persons discharging managerial responsibilities, including Chair Rick Haythornthwaite and multiple independent non-executive directors. These individuals acquired ordinary shares on 18 Septemb...
NatWest steps up buyback with nearly 2 million shares repurchased and slated for cancellation
PositiveNatWest Group has continued its ongoing share buyback programme, repurchasing more than 1.98 million ordinary shares over the week of 14–15 September 2026 across venues including the London Stock Exchange, CHIX and BATE, at volume-weighted aver...
NatWest Continues Share Buyback, Updates Voting Rights Total
PositiveNatWest Group plc has continued to execute its share buyback programme, purchasing nearly 2.7 million ordinary shares over 8–10 September 2026 across the London Stock Exchange, CHIX and BATE venues. The trades, conducted via UBS AG London Branc...
NatWest discloses routine share plan purchases by senior executive
PositiveNatWest Group has reported transactions under its Buy As You Earn Share Plan involving Chief Customer & Operations Officer James Holian, reflecting routine share purchases made on his behalf. The disclosure, required under U.K. Market Abuse Regul...
NatWest expands buyback with latest round of share repurchases
PositiveNatWest Group has disclosed a series of share repurchases carried out between 24 and 28 August 2026 under its existing buyback programme with UBS as executing broker. The bank bought back several million ordinary shares across venues including the Lo...
NatWest Group Reports Updated Share Capital and Voting Rights
NeutralNatWest Group has reported its total issued share capital and voting rights as of 28 August 2026, confirming 7.95 billion ordinary shares in issue excluding treasury shares and an overall total of 31.81 billion voting rights. The disclosure, which al...
NatWest Continues Share Buyback, Cancels Newly Repurchased Shares
PositiveNatWest Group has continued its ongoing share buyback programme, repurchasing several million ordinary shares over the week of 17–21 August 2026 through UBS across the London Stock Exchange and other trading venues. The buyback, executed within...
NatWest Advances Share Buyback and Updates Voting Rights
PositiveNatWest Group has continued executing its existing share buyback programme, purchasing a series of ordinary shares from UBS AG’s London branch across several venues, including the LSE, CHIX and BATE, over 13 and 14 August 2026. The bank intends...
NatWest grants deferred share awards to senior executives under 2024 plan
PositiveNatWest Group has delivered ordinary shares to several senior executives under its 2024 Employee Share Plan as part of a fixed share allowance for the quarter ending 30 September 2026. The awards, which were calculated using a reference share price a...
NatWest Group Publishes H1 2026 Pillar 3 Disclosures for Major Subsidiaries
PositiveNatWest Group plc has published its H1 2026 Pillar 3 regulatory disclosures for several large subsidiaries, including NatWest Holdings Limited, NatWest Markets Plc, National Westminster Bank Plc, The Royal Bank of Scotland plc and Coutts & Compan...
NatWest Executives Adopt Structured Share Trading Plans as Senior Manager Sells Stake
NeutralNatWest Group has implemented structured trading plans for several senior executives, allowing up to 25% of their vested ordinary shares, free of regulatory retention requirements, to be sold under pre-set, irrevocable instructions. The plans, entere...
NatWest to Redeem £1bn Tier 2 Notes Ahead of Maturity
PositiveNatWest Group plc is a major U.K.-based banking and financial services group, providing retail and commercial banking, treasury, and capital markets services. The group focuses on lending, deposit-taking, and debt capital markets activities for a wid...
NatWest Updates £40bn Euro Medium Term Note Programme with New Supplementary Prospectus
PositiveNatWest Group has published a fourth supplementary prospectus to its £40 billion Euro Medium Term Note Programme, originally established in December 2025 and approved by the Financial Conduct Authority. The updated document has been filed with t...
NatWest Updates £40bn Euro Medium-Term Note Programme
PositiveNatWest Group has published a third supplementary prospectus for its £40 billion Euro Medium Term Note Programme, originally established in December 2025 and now updated as of 31 July 2026. The document, approved by the Financial Conduct Authori...
NatWest Advances Share Buyback, Adjusts Voting Rights Base
PositiveNatWest Group has continued executing its previously announced share buyback programme, repurchasing more than three million ordinary shares over the past week across venues including the London Stock Exchange, CHIX and BATE at volume‑weighted...
NatWest Group Updates Share Capital and Voting Rights
NeutralNatWest Group plc is a leading U.K. banking group offering a broad range of retail, commercial and institutional financial services to individuals, businesses and large corporate clients. It operates under U.K. and international regulatory regimes, w...
NatWest Group Delivers Strong H1 2026 Results and Accelerates Growth Strategy
PositiveNatWest Group reported strong interim results for the first half of 2026, highlighting attributable profit of £3.0 billion and a Return on Tangible Equity of 19.7%, alongside capital generation of 137 basis points before distributions. The bank&...
NatWest profit and earnings surge on higher income in first half of 2026
PositiveNatWest Group reported a strong first-half 2026 performance, with net interest income rising to £6.89 billion from £6.12 billion and total income increasing to £8.86 billion. Loans to customers expanded to £435.9 billion and custo...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Oct 30, 2026