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Northern Bear (NTBR) AI Stock Analysis

GB:NTBR

Northern Bear

(LSE:NTBR)

Select Model
Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:GBX 110.00â–²(1.85% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:10/17/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial fundamentals (profitability recovery and low leverage) and very attractive valuation (low P/E plus dividend). These positives are tempered by weak technicals, with the share price below key moving averages and momentum indicators signaling a downtrend.

Positive Factors
Profitability RecoveryThe sustained move from losses to profitability indicates a materially stronger earnings base than in earlier years. Higher gross profit and EBIT scaling suggest improved operating performance, giving Northern Bear more capacity to reinvest, support subsidiaries, and withstand moderate demand fluctuations.
Negative Factors
Revenue DeclineThe latest revenue contraction interrupts the prior expansion trend and creates uncertainty about the pace of demand across the group’s specialist building-services businesses. If weaker revenue persists, fixed operating costs could weigh on margins and make recent earnings improvements less durable.

Northern Bear (NTBR) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%GB:NTBR+6.49%EWC+21.27%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
GBP 14.86M
Dividend Yield
2.31%
Average Volume (3M)
40.59K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
3.6
Beta (1Y)
0.47
Revenue Growth
10.23%
EPS Growth
80.01%
Country
UK
Employees
421
Sector
Industrials
Sector Strength
63
Industry
Engineering & Construction

Northern Bear Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Northern Bear PLC, established in 2006 and based in Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom, offers a diverse portfolio of building and associated services across Northern England. The company serves a wide clientele, including local government bodies, s...

How the Company Makes Money

Northern Bear makes money primarily by generating revenue through its operating subsidiaries, which earn income from contracted building services projects. The group’s key revenue streams come from (1) project-based contract work such as installation...

Northern Bear Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability has improved materially, shifting from losses (2021–2022) to solid profits (2023–2026), supported by higher gross profit and EBIT scaling (2026 EBIT: 5.1m on 86.1m revenue). The balance sheet is conservatively positioned with modest debt (2.5m) versus equity (26.0m). Offsetting this strength, revenue declined in 2026 and cash flow has been volatile, with free cash flow down in 2026 versus 2025.

Income Statement

73Positive

Balance Sheet

82Very Positive

Cash Flow

69Positive
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMMar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue86.10M86.10M78.11M68.68M69.72M61.10M
Gross Profit21.95M21.95M19.22M15.87M13.93M12.44M
EBITDA5.97M5.12M4.98M3.85M3.33M335.00K
Net Income4.15M4.15M2.31M1.62M1.59M-1.33M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets44.65M44.65M42.56M39.35M40.11M39.03M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments6.16M6.16M3.97M978.00K3.15M3.23M
Total Debt2.48M2.48M3.23M5.18M2.24M3.25M
Total Liabilities18.63M18.63M20.25M19.09M17.55M18.06M
Stockholders Equity26.02M26.02M22.31M20.26M22.57M20.98M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow4.18M4.18M5.50M-1.32M1.12M248.00K
Operating Cash Flow6.19M6.19M7.43M683.00K2.59M2.00M
Investing Cash Flow-1.12M-1.12M-1.41M-1.18M-946.00K-1.21M
Financing Cash Flow-2.88M-2.88M-3.03M-1.67M-1.72M333.00K

Northern Bear Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive
Last Price108.00

Price Trends

50DMA110.37Negative
100DMA107.93Positive
200DMA108.13Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-0.50Negative
RSI55.17Neutral
STOCH73.35Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:NTBR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 108.00 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 103.30, below the 50-day MA of 110.37, and below the 200-day MA of 108.13, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.50 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.35 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:NTBR.

Northern Bear Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

GB:NTBR against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
GB:ALUGB:ALU76OutperformGBP 87.65M11.9216.97%6.20%-5.55%-21.94%
GB:NTBRGB:NTBR71OutperformGBP 14.85M3.5616.33%2.31%10.23%80.01%
Sector *63Neutral$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
GB:TONGB:TON59NeutralGBP 9.28M-257.81-0.34%―15.82%98.85%
GB:ECELGB:ECEL57NeutralGBP 136.98M24.825.51%4.75%10.68%-25.87%
GB:HSMGB:HSM56NeutralGBP 6.46M31.881.60%5.12%0.39%-77.03%
GB:BUCGB:BUC32UnderperformGBP 5.78M-10.36-22.11%―-5.30%0.00%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-20%0%20%40%GB:NTBRGB:ALUGB:BUCGB:ECELGB:HSMGB:TONDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
GB:NTBR and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
GB:NTBRNorthern Bear108.006.586.49%
GB:ALUAlumasc Group plc245.00-10.65-4.17%
GB:BUCAukett Swanke1.45-0.40-21.62%
GB:ECELEurocell plc139.0021.3118.11%
GB:HSMHeath (Samuel) & Sons255.00-69.52-21.42%
GB:TONTiton Holdings82.50-7.50-8.33%

Northern Bear Corporate Events

Other

Northern Bear Announces Reduction in Major Shareholder’s Stake

Neutral
Oct 14, 2026

Northern Bear plc has disclosed a change in the shareholding of investor Mr. D O’Hare, who previously held 3.3 percent of the company’s issued share capital. The company reports that he now holds an interest of less than 3 percent, with b...

Stock BuybackDividendsFinancial DisclosuresShareholder Meetings

Northern Bear Wins Full Shareholder Backing at AGM for Dividends and Capital Flexibility

Positive
Sep 10, 2026

Northern Bear plc reported that shareholders at its Annual General Meeting on 10 September 2026 approved all 11 resolutions put to the vote, including the adoption of the financial statements for the year ended 31 March 2026 and the re-election of ke...

Financial DisclosuresShareholder Meetings

Northern Bear Posts 2026 Annual Report and Sets Date for In‑Person AGM

Neutral
Aug 7, 2026

Northern Bear Plc has posted its Annual Report and Financial Statements for the year ended 31 March 2026, together with the notice of its Annual General Meeting, to shareholders, completing a key step in its yearly governance and disclosure cycle. Th...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 17, 2026