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National Atomic Company Kazatomprom JSC GDR RegS
(LSE:KAP)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$75.00
▼(-1.96% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/06/26
The score is driven primarily by strong underlying fundamentals (high profitability and very low leverage), partially offset by weaker cash-flow conversion and earnings/cost headwinds highlighted on the latest call. Technicals are supportive with an uptrend and positive momentum, while valuation is fair with a supportive dividend yield but not a clear bargain.
Positive Factors
Production and revenue growth
Higher production and revenue show continued operating momentum in the core uranium business. Combined with confirmed 2026 volume guidance, this supports durable scale, strengthens delivery capacity for customers, and provides a foundation for sustained earnings over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Material cost inflation
Sharp increases in C1 and sustaining costs can compress margins even when uranium prices and production remain supportive. Higher sulfuric-acid prices, taxes, and currency effects raise the cost base, making future profitability more sensitive to realized prices and reducing the benefit of production growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Production and revenue growth
Higher production and revenue show continued operating momentum in the core uranium business. Combined with confirmed 2026 volume guidance, this supports durable scale, strengthens delivery capacity for customers, and provides a foundation for sustained earnings over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
National Atomic Company Kazatomprom JSC GDR RegS (KAP) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
$17.07B
Dividend Yield4.15%
Average Volume (3M)71.89K
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.8
Beta (1Y)0.60
Revenue Growth2.91%
EPS Growth-13.65%
CountryUK
Employees22,000
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryUranium
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2023.61
Shares Outstanding259,356,600
10 Day Avg. Volume68,903
30 Day Avg. Volume71,893
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.36
Price to Book (P/B)3.15
Price to Sales (P/S)4.18
P/FCF Ratio10.56
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.12
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.02
Enterprise Value/Ebitda0.02
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$91.00Price Target Upside18.95% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)2,165.48
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.15T
National Atomic Company Kazatomprom JSC GDR RegS Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
JSC National Atomic Company Kazatomprom, established in 1997 and headquartered in Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan, operates globally as a comprehensive player in the uranium industry. Its primary business encompasses the full uranium lifecycle, from explor...
How the Company Makes Money
Kazatomprom makes money primarily by producing and selling uranium (typically marketed as U3O8 or equivalent uranium products) to customers in the nuclear power industry. Its main revenue stream comes from long-term contracts and spot/market-linke...
National Atomic Company Kazatomprom JSC GDR RegS Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 21, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call highlighted solid operational execution (production growth, higher realized prices, revenue growth, stable operating profit and a strategic inventory build) and reinforced Kazatomprom's strong market positioning amid improving uranium market fundamentals. However, the company faces substantial cost pressures (C1 +37%, AISC +25%), a net profit decline due to FX losses and higher finance costs, a drop in attributable EBITDA, timing-related cash flow weakness, and some project-specific delays and regulatory impacts. Management confirmed production guidance but revised financial guidance and increased CapEx to secure growth. Overall, positives in volumes, pricing and market position are offset by material cost and FX headwinds, resulting in a balanced view.Positive Updates
Production Growth
Group production increased 9% year-on-year and company-level production increased 10% year-on-year in H1 2026, keeping the company on track with subsoil use requirements for 2026.
Negative Updates
Significant Cost Inflation
C1 cash costs rose 37% YoY and all-in sustaining costs increased 25% YoY in US dollar terms. Primary drivers included a higher mineral extraction tax rate, a rise in sulfuric acid prices (sulfuric acid cost +39% on average) and appreciation of the Kazakh tenge versus the USD.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Production Growth
Group production increased 9% year-on-year and company-level production increased 10% year-on-year in H1 2026, keeping the company on track with subsoil use requirements for 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management confirmed its 2026 production/sales-volume guidance but revised its full‑year financial outlook—adjusting revenue, C1 cash cost, all‑in sustaining cost (AISC) and CapEx ranges—citing Kazakh tenge appreciation and higher sulfuric‑acid prices as drivers. First‑half metrics supporting the update: group sales >7,500 tonnes, production +9% (group) / +10% (company), average realized price $67.88/ lb (+16% YoY), consolidated inventory >8,200 t (+23% YoY; company 6,200 t, +15%), consolidated revenue ~KZT 718bn (+9% YoY), operating profit ~KZT 253bn, adjusted EBITDA KZT 371bn (+2%), attributable EBITDA ~KZT 265bn (−12%) and net profit KZT 240bn (vs KZT 263bn). Cost pressures are material — C1 cash costs ↑37% and AISC ↑25% YoY in USD terms, sulfuric acid costs ↑39% (acid ≈15.3% of production costs) — and management said the C1 increase reflects roughly equal effects from FX and higher CapEx, with CapEx guidance raised proactively; a 6–12 month construction delay is not expected to have a material impact on mining operations.National Atomic Company Kazatomprom JSC GDR RegS Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
90
Very Positive
Cash Flow
64
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.85T | 1.75T | 1.81T | 1.43T | 1.00T | 691.01B |
| Gross Profit | 924.69B | 831.09B | 881.73B | 762.77B | 526.07B | 288.04B |
| EBITDA | 912.01B | 907.33B | 1.51T | 835.63B | 592.63B | 365.91B |
| Net Income | 524.18B | 554.80B | 872.26B | 419.18B | 472.96B | 220.03B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.43T | 4.02T | 3.82T | 2.60T | 2.22T | 1.95T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 544.66B | 475.34B | 314.81B | 258.63B | 170.80B | 209.40B |
| Total Debt | 203.58B | 207.79B | 149.71B | 177.40B | 139.01B | 102.63B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.35T | 785.05B | 824.33B | 591.02B | 526.03B | 414.40B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.15T | 2.33T | 2.09T | 1.53T | 1.31T | 1.19T |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 372.18B | 694.88B | 342.72B | 323.18B | 400.83B | 71.43B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 587.58B | 912.82B | 516.49B | 432.23B | 475.30B | 118.73B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -297.26B | -376.66B | -42.41B | -61.20B | -10.89B | -71.24B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -526.12B | -474.75B | -415.26B | -319.43B | -268.88B | -1.84B |
National Atomic Company Kazatomprom JSC GDR RegS Technical Analysis
Neutral
76.50
Price Trends
67.59
Negative
67.49
Negative
71.79
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.33
Negative
54.28
Neutral
57.38
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:KAP, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 76.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 63.07, above the 50-day MA of 67.59, and above the 200-day MA of 71.79, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.33 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.38 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GB:KAP.
National Atomic Company Kazatomprom JSC GDR RegS Peers Comparison
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National Atomic Company Kazatomprom JSC GDR RegS Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Kazatomprom Shareholders Approve Major Uranium Contract and Refresh Board
Neutral
Oct 8, 2026
Kazatomprom’s shareholders have endorsed a major spot-term contract for the sale and purchase of natural uranium concentrates with China’s State Nuclear Uranium Resource Development Company Limited, following an extraordinary general m...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Kazatomprom Secures New Uranium Exploration Rights and Plays Down Impact of Russian Acid Export Rules
Positive
Sep 21, 2026
Kazatomprom has secured a six-year subsoil use license to explore the Kyzyltu uranium block in Kazakhstan’s Kyzylorda region, where preliminary estimates suggest around 10,000 tonnes of uranium resources. The move aligns with the companyR...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Moody’s Upgrades Kazatomprom’s Credit Profile, Affirms Baa1 Rating
Positive
Sep 9, 2026
Moody’s Investors Service has affirmed Kazatomprom’s long-term issuer rating at Baa1 and raised its Baseline Credit Assessment from baa3 to baa2, while maintaining a stable outlook. The upgrade reflects the company’s strong opera...
Business Operations and Strategy
Fitch Affirms Kazatomprom’s BBB Rating, Outlook Stable
Positive
Aug 26, 2026
Fitch Ratings has affirmed National Atomic Company Kazatomprom’s long-term credit rating at BBB with a Stable outlook, maintaining its standalone assessment despite limited links to its majority owner, the Republic of Kazakhstan. The agency ...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Kazatomprom Delivers Solid First-Half Results Amid Regulatory Shifts and Project Delay
Positive
Aug 21, 2026
Kazatomprom reported resilient first-half 2026 results, with consolidated revenue rising 9% year on year to almost KZT 718 billion, supported by strong uranium prices and stable long-term market indicators. Despite industry-wide cost pressures and...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Kazatomprom Calls EGM to Approve Major Uranium Supply Deals and Board Change
Positive
Aug 21, 2026
Kazatomprom has called an absentee extraordinary general meeting for early October to approve two major uranium supply transactions and changes to its board of directors. Shareholders will vote on a large spot-term contract to sell natural uranium...
Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
Kazatomprom Shareholders Back Uranium Supply Deal Amendment with China’s CNUC
Positive
Aug 12, 2026
Kazatomprom has secured overwhelming shareholder backing at an Extraordinary General Meeting for a letter of agreement amending a long-term contract to sell natural uranium concentrates to China National Uranium Corporation Limited. The absentee v...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Kazatomprom Update Highlights Accelerating Nuclear Build-Out and Firm Uranium Market
Positive
Aug 3, 2026
Kazatomprom reported its second-quarter and half-year 2026 operational and trading update against a backdrop of accelerating nuclear investment and policy support worldwide. Major developments included a U.S. Department of Energy plan to finance t...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.