Firstgroup AI Stock Analysis
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Firstgroup (FGP) AI Stock Analysis
Firstgroup
(LSE:FGP)
The score is driven primarily by improving financial stability supported by strong cash generation, alongside attractive valuation (low P/E and a solid dividend yield). Technicals are supportive due to a clear uptrend, but very overbought momentum indicators (high RSI and Stochastics) temper the overall rating due to increased near-term downside risk.
Firstgroup (FGP) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
- Market Cap
- GBP 1.21B
- Dividend Yield
- 3.05%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 1.56M
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 10.8
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.72
- Revenue Growth
- -6.21%
- EPS Growth
- 0.75%
- Country
- UK
- Employees
- 30,513
- Sector
- Industrials
- Sector Strength
- 63
- Industry
- Railroads
Firstgroup Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
FirstGroup plc provides public transport services in the United Kingdom. It operates through First Bus and First Rail segments. The First Bus segment offers local bus services with a fleet of approximately 5,800 buses and coaches in the United Kingdo...
How the Company Makes Money
FirstGroup makes money primarily by operating passenger transport services and earning revenue from fares paid by riders on its bus networks. A key revenue stream is passenger ticketing (including single fares and multi-journey or season products, wh...
Firstgroup Earnings Call Summary
The earnings call highlights significant revenue growth, strategic acquisitions, operational efficiencies, and sustainability initiatives. However, these are balanced by challenges in bus volume decline due to economic factors, inflationary pressures, and the costs associated with open access rail expansion. Despite these challenges, the company has managed to maintain a strong financial position and propose a higher dividend.
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
During FirstGroup's 2026 Half Year Results Presentation, they reported substantial growth despite economic challenges, with group adjusted revenue increasing by 30% to GBP 834 million, largely due to the acquisition of First Bus London. Adjusted earnings per share rose by 16% to 9.9p, supported by the repurchase of approximately 22 million shares. The Board proposed an interim dividend of 2.2p per share, a 29% increase from the previous year. First Bus achieved a 24% reduction in lost mileage to 1.3% and improved its Net Promoter Score to plus 15. FirstGroup's adjusted operating profit reached GBP 103.6 million, up 2.8%, and adjusted earnings grew by 7.1% to GBP 55.5 million. The company maintained a strong balance sheet, with an adjusted net debt of GBP 207.6 million and a debt cover ratio of 0.95x. Looking ahead, the group expects modest growth in adjusted EPS for the full year 2026 and aims to maintain this level in 2027, with a focus on U.K. growth and diversification strategies.
Firstgroup Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials are stable-to-improving, led by strong and generally positive free cash flow and solid operating cash flow. Offsetting this, revenue has been flat to slightly down (with a TTM decline), profitability has been thin and volatile, and leverage remains a constraint despite improvement since 2023.
Income Statement
58NeutralBalance Sheet
52NeutralCash Flow
73Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.75B | 4.75B | 4.65B | 4.72B | 4.75B | 4.59B |
| Gross Profit | 135.70M | 135.70M | 1.81B | 2.02B | 2.24B | 2.12B |
| EBITDA | 753.30M | 700.80M | 849.80M | 656.30M | 896.70M | 863.60M |
| Net Income | 118.30M | 118.30M | 127.50M | -15.90M | 87.10M | 636.40M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.10B | 3.10B | 3.66B | 3.81B | 4.41B | 3.83B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 432.00M | 432.00M | 171.40M | 496.50M | 791.40M | 787.70M |
| Total Debt | 1.16B | 1.16B | 1.35B | 1.60B | 2.99B | 1.41B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.38B | 2.38B | 2.95B | 3.17B | 3.66B | 2.95B |
| Stockholders Equity | 710.00M | 710.00M | 696.70M | 633.30M | 740.20M | 876.60M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 378.70M | 378.70M | 597.80M | 324.00M | 402.30M | -184.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 620.50M | 620.50M | 754.20M | 543.30M | 580.20M | 66.80M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -191.10M | -191.10M | -150.90M | -10.20M | 73.00M | 2.08B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -453.50M | -453.50M | -641.50M | -776.30M | -640.90M | -2.89B |
Firstgroup Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:FGP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 237.20 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 220.62, above the 50-day MA of 195.46, and above the 200-day MA of 179.64, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 11.66 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 82.27 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.08 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:FGP.
Firstgroup Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
GB:EZJ74Outperform
GB:SRP68Neutral- GB:FGP68Neutral
GB:WIZZ57Neutral
GB:AVAP55Neutral
GB:MCG49Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB:EZJ | 74Outperform | GBP 5.22B | 12.30 | 11.57% | 1.92% | 9.93% | 1.93% |
| GB:SRP | 68Neutral | GBP 2.76B | 18.59 | 17.55% | 1.63% | 1.20% | 221.80% |
| GB:FGP | 68Neutral | GBP 1.20B | 10.77 | 17.75% | 3.05% | -6.21% | 0.75% |
| Sector * | 63Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% |
| GB:WIZZ | 57Neutral | GBP 1.19B | -457.54 | -0.31% | ― | 10.71% | -101.29% |
| GB:AVAP | 55Neutral | GBP 83.06M | 14.84 | 3.29% | 0.79% | -3.60% | ― |
| GB:MCG | 49Neutral | GBP 269.65M | -0.85 | 160.47% | ― | ― | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB:FGP | Firstgroup plc | 237.20 | 41.92 | 21.47% | |
| GB:EZJ | EasyJet Plc | 689.80 | 233.18 | 51.07% | |
| GB:AVAP | Avation plc | 140.00 | 0.13 | 0.09% | |
| GB:MCG | Mobico Group Plc | 44.32 | 18.98 | 74.90% | |
| GB:SRP | Serco Group plc | 287.40 | 44.42 | 18.28% | |
| GB:WIZZ | Wizz Air Holdings | 1131.00 | 53.00 | 4.92% |
Firstgroup Corporate Events
FirstGroup updates investors on progress of share buyback and current voting rights
PositiveFirstGroup plc has continued executing its previously announced share buyback programme, purchasing around 1.26 million ordinary shares between 12 and 16 October 2026 through RBC Europe Limited at weighted average prices rising from about 192p to jus...
FirstGroup CFO Acquires Shares Under Incentive Plan
PositiveFirstGroup plc disclosed that its Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer, Ryan Mangold, has acquired 76 ordinary shares under the company’s Share Incentive Plan. The partnership shares were purchased on 14 October 2026 at £1.9750 per share on...
FirstGroup Unlocks £500m in Reserves with Capital Reduction
PositiveFirstGroup PLC has confirmed that a court-approved reduction of its share premium account became effective on 30 September 2026, following shareholder approval at the July Annual General Meeting. The capital reduction has been formally registered at...
FirstGroup Advances £100m Share Buyback With Third Tranche Launch
PositiveFirstGroup plc has confirmed the completion of the second tranche of its £100m on-market share buyback, with Panmure Liberum purchasing 27,522,679 ordinary shares for a total consideration of £49.8m. These shares are being held in treasury, reducing...
FirstGroup Expands Share Buyback, Lifts Treasury Holdings
PositiveFirstGroup has continued its previously announced share buyback programme, repurchasing over 1.2 million ordinary shares between 5 and 9 October 2026 via Panmure Liberum. The purchases were made at weighted average prices ranging from about 185p to 1...
FirstGroup Extends Buyback, Increases Treasury Share Holdings
PositiveFirstGroup has continued to execute its share buyback programme by repurchasing a total of more than 1.25 million ordinary shares between 28 September and 2 October 2026 at prices around 180 pence. The company initially intends to hold these shares i...
FirstGroup Updates Share Capital and Voting Rights Disclosure
NeutralFirstGroup plc has disclosed updated information on its share capital and voting rights as at 30 September 2026, in line with U.K. regulatory requirements. The company’s capital comprises 570,695,015 ordinary shares, of which 33,323,914 are held in t...
FirstGroup unlocks £17.5m as it completes £90m pension buy-in
PositiveFirstGroup has completed a buy-in of approximately £90 million of liabilities in its Group Section pension scheme, using around £22 million held in escrow to fund the transaction. Of this, £17.5 million has been returned to the company, £2.1 million...
FirstGroup Expands Treasury Stock with Latest Share Buyback
PositiveFirstGroup has continued to execute its previously announced share buyback programme, repurchasing just over 1.7 million ordinary shares between 21 and 25 September 2026 at prices ranging from about 170p to 176p. The company initially intends to hold...
FirstGroup Unlocks £500m in Reserves After Capital Reduction
PositiveFirstGroup plc has completed a court-approved reduction of its share premium account, following shareholder approval at the July 2026 annual general meeting. The move became effective upon delivery of the court order to the Registrar of Companies in...
FirstGroup Adds to Treasury Stock Under Ongoing Share Buyback Programme
NeutralFirstGroup has continued executing its previously announced share buyback programme, repurchasing a series of ordinary shares over 14–18 September 2026 through Panmure Liberum. The purchases, at prices around 170 pence per share, reflect the company’...
FirstGroup Wins Court Approval for £500m Capital Reduction
PositiveFirstGroup has secured court approval for a reduction of its share premium account, creating £500 million of additional distributable reserves. The move leaves the number and nominal value of ordinary shares unchanged and does not alter the Group’s c...
FirstGroup CFO Adds Shares Under Incentive Plan
PositiveFirstGroup plc has disclosed that its Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer, Ryan Mangold, acquired 88 ordinary shares under the company’s Share Incentive Plan. The shares, priced at £1.7015 each, were purchased on 10 September 2026 and the...
FirstGroup Tightens Capital Structure with Ongoing Share Buyback
PositiveFirstGroup plc has continued to execute its previously announced share buyback programme, purchasing more than 1.7 million ordinary shares between 7 and 11 September 2026 through Panmure Liberum Limited. The trades were conducted at weighted average...
FirstGroup Updates Market on September Share Buyback Activity
PositiveFirstGroup plc has continued to execute its share buyback programme announced in June 2026, repurchasing more than 1.5 million ordinary shares between 1 and 4 September through Panmure Liberum at weighted average prices around 175–178 pence. The comp...
FirstGroup Executives Exercise Options Under 2023 SAYE Share Plan
PositiveFirstGroup has disclosed that Chief Executive Officer Graham Sutherland and Chief Financial Officer Ryan Mangold have each exercised options over 13,621 ordinary shares under the company’s 2023 Save As You Earn share plan. The options matured after a...
FirstGroup boosts capital return with latest share buyback tranche
PositiveFirstGroup has continued its share buyback programme, repurchasing more than 1.6 million ordinary shares between 24 and 28 August 2026 at prices around 178–180 pence, via broker Panmure Liberum. The company initially plans to hold these shares in tre...
FirstGroup adds 1.65 million shares to treasury under ongoing buyback
PositiveFirstGroup has continued executing its previously announced share buyback programme, repurchasing just over 1.65 million ordinary shares between 17 and 21 August 2026 at prices around 180 pence per share. The shares were acquired via Panmure Liberum...
FirstGroup discloses dividend-funded share acquisition by CFO under incentive plan
NeutralFirstGroup has disclosed a routine director share transaction under the UK Market Abuse Regulation involving its Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer, Ryan Mangold. Through the company’s Share Incentive Plan, 281 ordinary shares were acquir...
FirstGroup expands share buyback and clarifies voting rights
PositiveFirstGroup has continued its share buyback programme, repurchasing a total of around 772,000 ordinary shares between 10 and 13 August 2026 at prices in the low 180 pence range, via broker Panmure Liberum. The company plans initially to hold these sha...
FirstGroup CFO acquires shares through company incentive plan
PositiveFirstGroup plc disclosed that its Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer, Ryan Mangold, acquired 81 ordinary shares in the company through its Share Incentive Plan. The purchase, executed on 10 August 2026 at £1.8471 per share on the London S...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Oct 17, 2026