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Capita plc
(LSE:CPI)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
253.00 p
▼(-12.31% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/14/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (loss-making year, compressed margins, thin equity/high leverage, and poor recent free cash flow). Earnings-call guidance adds near-term pressure via expected FY26 cash outflows and higher net debt tied to CSPS remediation, partially offset by improving order book momentum and cost-savings execution. Technicals are mixed, showing a rebound versus shorter moving averages but not a clear longer-term trend reversal.
Positive Factors
Order book momentum
A large and growing order book provides meaningful forward revenue visibility for Capita’s contracted-services model. Strong new wins and TCV growth indicate continued customer demand, support capacity planning, and improve the potential for more stable revenue over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Revenue and margin deterioration
The multiyear revenue decline and sharp 2025 loss show that Capita has not yet established durable growth or stable profitability. Negative EBIT and EBITDA, alongside compressed gross margins, reduce the resources available for investment and make earnings recovery dependent on successful execution.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Order book momentum
A large and growing order book provides meaningful forward revenue visibility for Capita’s contracted-services model. Strong new wins and TCV growth indicate continued customer demand, support capacity planning, and improve the potential for more stable revenue over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Capita plc (CPI) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£307.23M
Dividend Yield5.94%
Average Volume (3M)1.07M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.75
Revenue Growth-16.13%
EPS Growth-1315.87%
CountryUK
Employees29,500
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustrySpecialty Business Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.67
Shares Outstanding120,830,666
10 Day Avg. Volume798,535
30 Day Avg. Volume1,074,791
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)9.74
Price to Sales (P/S)0.21
P/FCF Ratio-96.18
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£396.00Price Target Upside37.26% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)0.12
Revenue Forecast (FY)£1.83B
Capita plc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Capita plc operates as an outsourcer that supports clients across the public and private sectors in the United Kingdom, India, South Africa, and the rest of Europe. It operates through two divisions: Capita Public Service and Capita Experience. Th...
How the Company Makes Money
Capita makes money primarily by delivering contracted services to clients, earning revenue for operating and improving specific business processes on their behalf. Its core revenue model is based on service contracts (often multi-year) under which...
Capita plc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 10, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a mixed picture: operational and strategic progress (order book growth, TCV momentum, cost savings, AI/hyperscaler partnerships, improved retention and KPI delivery across most divisions) is offset by a material profitability and cash‑flow hit driven by the CSPS remediation, increased net debt and a guided free cash outflow for the year. Management emphasizes remediation priorities, simplification and long‑term AI‑led strategy, but near‑term financial and operational headwinds (CSPS) remain significant.Positive Updates
Revenue and Top-Line Resilience
Group revenue of GBP 906 million in H1, up 1.6% year‑on‑year; Capita Public Service revenue GBP 729 million, up 2.4% driven by local/regional partnerships, transactional business and TfL.
Negative Updates
Significant Profitability Decline
Adjusted operating profit was GBP 32 million, down 32% year‑on‑year; profit before tax of GBP 12.5 million (down from GBP 29 million prior year), reflecting remediation costs on the CSPS contract and non-repeat prior year benefits.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Top-Line Resilience
Group revenue of GBP 906 million in H1, up 1.6% year‑on‑year; Capita Public Service revenue GBP 729 million, up 2.4% driven by local/regional partnerships, transactional business and TfL.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guidance: the group expects FY26 revenue to be broadly flat, margins to stay in line with prior guidance but reduced by the Civil Service Pension Scheme remediation costs and residual transition overheads, and free cash flow before business exits to be an outflow of GBP 35–50m; net financial debt (pre‑IFRS16) is expected to increase (was GBP 200m at 30 June, 1.6x EBITDA), reflecting that outflow and disposal-related payments, with total H1 liquidity at GBP 351m (GBP 278m committed facilities after extension of the RCF to GBP 325m, plus GBP 73m net cash). Management reiterated its cost‑savings momentum (GBP 250m already removed, a further GBP 40m targeted in 2026–27), a c.200 basis‑point performance improvement aim by 2027, and noted H1 operating metrics of revenue GBP 906m (+1.6%), operating profit GBP 32m (‑32%), PBT GBP 12.5m, H1 cash conversion 96% (free cash flow GBP 3.5m) and an order book of c. GBP 4bn (TCV growth c.15%).Capita plc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
32
Negative
Balance Sheet
24
Negative
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.95B | 2.20B | 2.42B | 2.81B | 3.01B | 3.18B |
| Gross Profit | 232.20M | 438.70M | 516.50M | 592.10M | 581.40M | 508.60M |
| EBITDA | -31.90M | -22.50M | 269.50M | 54.90M | 238.00M | 508.70M |
| Net Income | -201.10M | -164.10M | 76.70M | -178.10M | 74.80M | 224.70M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.76B | 1.74B | 1.84B | 2.00B | 2.55B | 3.14B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 266.40M | 264.10M | 254.00M | 155.40M | 396.80M | 317.60M |
| Total Debt | 750.70M | 723.70M | 680.30M | 721.00M | 903.30M | 1.24B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.75B | 1.70B | 1.64B | 1.88B | 2.20B | 2.85B |
| Stockholders Equity | 12.00M | 47.40M | 199.90M | 113.00M | 330.20M | 274.50M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -26.40M | -4.80M | -75.30M | -101.90M | 24.00M | -237.20M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -16.10M | 4.70M | -25.20M | -40.30M | 71.90M | -179.10M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -48.90M | -43.70M | 201.20M | 9.70M | 344.10M | 422.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.70M | -28.50M | -51.50M | -76.30M | -340.70M | -259.70M |
Capita plc Technical Analysis
Negative
288.50
Price Trends
255.40
Positive
265.24
Negative
296.92
Negative
Market Momentum
10.38
Positive
45.71
Neutral
17.79
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:CPI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 288.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 267.88, above the 50-day MA of 255.40, and below the 200-day MA of 296.92, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 10.38 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.79 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:CPI.
Capita plc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | £2.75B | 18.75 | 17.55% | 1.61% | 1.20% | 221.80% | |
67 Neutral | £2.65B | 32.35 | 15.86% | 2.15% | 10.55% | -19.05% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | £8.80B | 24.81 | 5.82% | 2.68% | -0.18% | 39.04% | |
60 Neutral | £405.76M | 146.21 | 1.30% | 2.37% | 8.11% | -69.68% | |
47 Neutral | £307.23M | -1.54 | -677.10% | 5.94% | -16.13% | -1315.87% | |
44 Neutral | £1.78B | 279.80 | -2.52% | 0.55% | 0.18% | -55.56% |
* Industrials Sector Average
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Capita plc Corporate Events
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Capita CFO’s Administrative Share Trade Leaves Holding Unchanged
Positive
Oct 21, 2026
Capita plc has disclosed a minor share transaction involving its Chief Financial Officer, Pablo Andres, after his share dealing platform automatically sold 48 ordinary shares to cover account administration costs. Andres immediately repurchased th...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Capita Executive Adds Shares Under Monthly Ownership Plan
Positive
Oct 7, 2026
Capita plc has disclosed that Chief Strategy and Transformation Officer Xenia Walters acquired ordinary shares through a scheduled monthly purchase under the Capita Share Ownership Plan. The transaction, reported as an initial notification, unders...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Capita responds to NAO review of Civil Service Pension Scheme administration
Negative
Oct 2, 2026
Capita plc, an AI-enabled business services provider, supports a wide range of public and private sector clients, including central and local government bodies and regulated industries. Its core offering is combining technology, data and AI with s...
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Capita Updates Total Voting Rights and Share Capital
Neutral
Oct 1, 2026
Capita plc has confirmed that, as at 30 September 2026, its issued share capital comprises 120,830,667 ordinary shares of 31 pence each, with each share carrying one voting right and no shares held in Treasury. This figure, which includes 246,871 ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Capita secures new £30m financing to refinance debt and support operations
Positive
Sep 25, 2026
Capita plc has secured new financing facilities totalling £30m from Shawbrook Bank Limited, split between a £15m revolving credit facility and a £15m term loan. Both facilities carry a three-year maturity to September 2029, with the...
Business Operations and Strategy
Capita strengthens investor support with new joint corporate brokers
Positive
Sep 23, 2026
Capita plc has expanded its capital markets advisory line-up by appointing Canaccord Genuity Limited and Singer Capital Markets as joint corporate brokers alongside its existing broker, RBC Capital Markets. The move strengthens Capita’s rela...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Capita Executive Adds Shares Through Monthly Ownership Plan
Neutral
Sep 8, 2026
Capita plc has disclosed that its Chief Strategy and Transformation Officer, Xenia Walters, has made a monthly purchase of ordinary shares under the Capita Share Ownership Plan. The transaction, involving 31p ordinary shares identified by code GB0...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Capita Updates Market on Total Voting Rights and Share Capital Structure
Neutral
Sep 1, 2026
Capita plc has reported that, as of 31 August 2026, its issued share capital comprises 120,830,667 ordinary shares of 31 pence each, with each share carrying one voting right and no shares held in treasury. The company noted that this figure inclu...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Capita strengthens board with AI specialist Radhika Chadwick
Positive
Aug 17, 2026
Capita plc has appointed Radhika Chadwick as an independent non-executive director, effective 1 September 2026, strengthening its board as it advances its strategy as an AI-enabled business services partner. Chadwick, a former McKinsey and EY part...
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Capita CEO Adds to Stake as Final Buy-Out Share Award Tranche Vests
Neutral
Aug 10, 2026
Capita plc has disclosed a director share dealing related to Chief Executive Officer Adolfo Hernandez, in line with UK Market Abuse Regulation reporting obligations. The transaction arises from the vesting of the fifth and final tranche of a buy-o...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Capita discloses routine share purchase by Chief People Officer
Neutral
Aug 6, 2026
Capita plc has disclosed a routine share transaction by its Chief People Officer, Scott Hill, under the company’s Share Ownership Plan. The filing reports his monthly purchase of ordinary shares, part of ongoing governance requirements for s...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Capita boosts contract pipeline but profits hit by pension scheme costs
Neutral
Aug 4, 2026
Capita reported continued strategic progress in the first half of 2026 as it advances its transformation into an AI-enabled business services partner, simplifying the group through the disposal of its private sector contact centre business and foc...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Capita board member Neelam Dhawan steps down to focus on growing business commitments
Neutral
Aug 3, 2026
Capita plc has announced that independent non-executive director Neelam Dhawan has stepped down from the board with immediate effect to concentrate on her growing business commitments, particularly in India. Dhawan, who joined the board in March 2...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Capita Confirms Updated Total Voting Rights
Neutral
Aug 3, 2026
Capita plc is a U.K.-listed outsourcing and professional services company that provides a range of business process and customer management services to corporate and public-sector clients. Its operations rely on a large shareholder base, with gove...
Business Operations and Strategy
Capita Wins £424.6m Extension to TfL Road User Charging Contracts
Positive
Aug 3, 2026
Capita plc has secured a five-year extension to its two Road User Charging contracts with Transport for London, covering Business Operations and Enforcement Operations for schemes such as the Congestion Charge, Ultra Low Emission Zone, Low Emissio...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Capita completes sale of private sector contact centre arm to Inspirit Capital
Positive
Aug 3, 2026
Capita plc has completed the sale of its private sector contact centre business to private equity firm Inspirit Capital, finalising a deal first announced in March 2026 and removing a £206m revenue line that had been modestly loss-making on a...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.