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Antofagasta
(LSE:70GD)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
75.00 p
▲(6.38% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/17/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying operating performance and a constructive earnings-call outlook (strong H1 results, improved costs, and funded growth pipeline), partially offset by weaker recent free cash flow and rising leverage that increase sensitivity to copper-cycle downturns. Technical indicators are neutral, and valuation support is limited by a relatively high P/E and an unusable dividend-yield input.
Positive Factors
Strong operating performance
Strong EBITDA growth, high margins and improved operating cash flow indicate robust operating execution. This supports internal funding capacity and provides resilience against normal commodity-price and cost volatility.
Negative Factors
Weak recent free cash flow
Despite stronger operating cash flow, recent negative free cash flow indicates substantial reinvestment or working-capital demands. Continued weak conversion could constrain debt reduction, dividends and funding flexibility during the growth program.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong operating performance
Strong EBITDA growth, high margins and improved operating cash flow indicate robust operating execution. This supports internal funding capacity and provides resilience against normal commodity-price and cost volatility.
Read all positive factors
Antofagasta (70GD) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£38.60B
Dividend Yield709.22%
Average Volume (3M)0.00
Price to Earnings (P/E)31.5
Beta (1Y)N/A
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUK
Employees8,095
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryCopper
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.68
Shares OutstandingN/A
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume0
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.51
Price to Book (P/B)4.19
Price to Sales (P/S)4.94
P/FCF Ratio-113.21
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Antofagasta Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
As a Chilean enterprise, Antofagasta PLC fundamentally specializes in copper extraction. The company manages four distinct copper operations across Chile, with two of these sites notably yielding significant by-products in addition to their main o...
How the Company Makes Money
Antofagasta makes money mainly by producing and selling copper from its mining operations. Its primary revenue stream comes from sales of copper products to customers (generally industrial and commodity-market buyers), with realized revenue driven...
Antofagasta Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 13, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| Next Earnings Date:Feb 23, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a predominantly positive operational and financial picture: strong H1 results (EBITDA +27%, cash flow +53%), record-high margins, meaningful dividend uplift, cost improvements (net cash cost -8%), and funded growth projects with clear commissioning/ramp-up timelines. Offsetting these positives are significant near-term operational disruptions from an unprecedented storm at Pelambres (production guidance reduced to 625k–655k tonnes), input cost inflation (diesel and sulfuric acid), a $630m lease accounting increase to net debt, and some tax timing effects. Management positioned guidance conservatively, reiterated project schedules and funding, and emphasized safety and cost discipline. On balance the highlights materially outweigh the lowlights, with risks largely near-term and managed.Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
EBITDA of $2.84 billion, up 27% year-on-year; industry-leading EBITDA margin of 63%; cash flow from operations up 53% in H1 2026.
Negative Updates
Severe Weather Impact at Pelambres and Production Guidance Cut
Severe storms and snow (estimated ~5 million cubic meters of snow to remove) led to an orderly suspension and phased restart of Pelambres operations. Full-year copper production guidance was lowered to 625,000–655,000 tonnes due to the event and the risk of further adverse winter weather.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Financial Performance
EBITDA of $2.84 billion, up 27% year-on-year; industry-leading EBITDA margin of 63%; cash flow from operations up 53% in H1 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Antofagasta reiterated full‑year 2026 guidance of 625,000–655,000 tonnes of copper (revised down after the Pelambres storm and about 5 million m3 of snow), maintained net cash‑cost guidance of $1.15–$1.35/lb (after an 8% y/y reduction in net cash cost; Centinela ~ $0.70/lb), and confirmed its growth pipeline is fully funded with the Centinela second concentrator on track for commissioning in 2027 and ramp‑up in 2028 (≈30% volume uplift on completion; ~$3.3bn spent to date; $2.5bn project facility expected to be drawn). In H1 the group delivered EBITDA up 27% to $2.84bn with a 63% EBITDA margin, cash flow from operations +53%, an interim dividend of $0.301 (≈+80–81%, consistent with a ≥35% payout policy), and capex guidance of ~$3.4bn for 2026 (peak spend behind) with sustaining capex of $1.0–$1.5bn p.a. for the next couple of years and only tail CapEx in 2027 before returning to sustaining levels in 2028; Zaldivar approved a $900m water pipeline to transition off continental water by mid‑2028 (supporting potential life to 2051). The company also booked $630m of lease liabilities into net debt, reports term contracts securing sulphuric‑acid supply for 2027 (while spot has stabilised), does not hedge input costs, and expects cash/P&L tax timing to reverse in H2.Antofagasta Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 9.32B | 8.80B | 6.61B | 6.32B | 5.86B | 7.47B |
| Gross Profit | 4.97B | 4.31B | 2.50B | 2.66B | 2.43B | 4.35B |
| EBITDA | 5.65B | 5.36B | 3.81B | 3.30B | 2.76B | 4.63B |
| Net Income | 1.66B | 1.36B | 829.40M | 835.10M | 1.53B | 1.29B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 27.40B | 26.43B | 22.63B | 19.65B | 18.24B | 17.28B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.16B | 4.91B | 4.32B | 3.38B | 2.39B | 3.71B |
| Total Debt | 8.13B | 7.73B | 5.35B | 4.08B | 3.27B | 3.17B |
| Total Liabilities | 12.32B | 11.99B | 9.68B | 7.60B | 6.59B | 6.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.75B | 10.37B | 9.46B | 8.95B | 8.63B | 8.35B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -93.41M | -384.19M | -129.30M | 203.80M | -2.30M | 1.89B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.60B | 3.38B | 2.29B | 2.33B | 1.88B | 3.67B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.16B | -3.57B | -2.08B | -2.09B | -477.50M | -2.20B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -705.46M | 741.13M | 1.35B | -402.00M | -1.33B | -1.95B |
Antofagasta Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | £23.18B | 13.81 | 46.50% | 3.63% | 47.70% | 382.60% | |
82 Outperform | £1.61B | 16.74 | 16.00% | 0.91% | 20.02% | 42.42% | |
75 Outperform | £3.41B | 15.43 | 35.59% | 1.02% | 37.18% | 95.38% | |
64 Neutral | £38.60B | 31.50 | 15.70% | 709.22% | ― | ― | |
58 Neutral | £70.39B | 17.87 | 13.34% | 2.20% | 26.71% | ― | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% | |
54 Neutral | £44.96B | -23.66 | -15.45% | 0.69% | -13.95% | 40.97% |
* General Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.