Banco Bilbao (0A2B) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

BBVA maintained its positive outlook and said group-level ROTE guidance was improved to above 20%, described as about 21; it expects ROTE to further improve in 2027 and 2028 against a 22 average midterm commitment. Spain’s cost of risk guidance remains low 30s, with 33 basis points within full year guidance, and Spanish NII guidance remains low to mid-single-digit growth; Mexico’s lending-growth guidance remains around 10%, with a positive bias and the expectation that it will most likely beat guidance, while customer spread is expected to have reached the bottom; Turkey’s cost of risk could come slightly above 220 basis points, while net profit guidance remains around EUR 1 billion with a downward bias; South America’s cost of risk could come slightly above guidance of below 250 basis points. BBVA still targets an 11.5% to 12% CET1 ratio range, expects 30 to 40 basis points from SRTs this year and around 12 to 14 basis points in the fourth quarter, and reiterated EUR 36 billion of distributions to shareholders or excess capital above EUR 12 billion from EUR 49 billion of capital generation in 2025 to 2028, with EUR 13 billion dedicated to growth.