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Gaia
(NASDAQ:GAIA)
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Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
$1.50
▼(-3.85% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/11/26
GAIA scores 44 primarily due to weak financial performance driven by ongoing losses and deteriorated TTM operating/free cash flow, despite a comparatively stable low-debt balance sheet. Technicals also weigh on the score as the stock trades below key moving averages with weak momentum. The earnings call adds only modest support—cost savings and strong unit economics are positives, but guidance was softened (no Q4 breakeven) and near-term revenue/cash constraints remain.
Positive Factors
Strong Direct-Member Unit Economics
The wide gap between lifetime value and acquisition cost indicates that direct members can generate attractive economic returns over time. This supports Gaia’s shift toward higher-quality owned relationships, provides room to invest in acquisition, and may strengthen recurring subscription economics.
Negative Factors
Revenue Contraction
Revenue contraction weakens the scale benefits of Gaia’s subscription platform and makes its largely fixed content costs harder to absorb. Management expects Q3 to remain at the trough, so the business must reverse declining sales while executing its strategic shift.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Direct-Member Unit Economics
The wide gap between lifetime value and acquisition cost indicates that direct members can generate attractive economic returns over time. This supports Gaia’s shift toward higher-quality owned relationships, provides room to invest in acquisition, and may strengthen recurring subscription economics.
Read all positive factors
Gaia Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue by country or region to show where Gaia earns most of its money and where growth is coming from. High concentration in one market increases exposure to local economic swings, currency moves, and competitive pressure, while geographic diversification can reveal untapped growth opportunities. For Gaia, regional splits also reflect how well its content and marketing translate across cultures and whether expansion is driving sustainable subscriber gains.
Breaks down revenue by country or region to show where Gaia earns most of its money and where growth is coming from. High concentration in one market increases exposure to local economic swings, currency moves, and competitive pressure, while geographic diversification can reveal untapped growth opportunities. For Gaia, regional splits also reflect how well its content and marketing translate across cultures and whether expansion is driving sustainable subscriber gains.
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The Fly
The FlyGaia (GAIA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$40.68M
Dividend Yield3.9%
Average Volume (3M)133.13K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.13
Revenue Growth3.22%
EPS Growth-19.05%
CountryUS
Employees112
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryEntertainment
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.24
Shares Outstanding20,025,793
10 Day Avg. Volume86,062
30 Day Avg. Volume133,131
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.11
Price to Book (P/B)1.03
Price to Sales (P/S)0.92
P/FCF Ratio-240.66
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$3.00Price Target Upside92.31% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.32
Revenue Forecast (FY)$102.03M
Gaia Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Gaia, Inc. operates a digital streaming subscription platform and an online community tailored for a niche global audience, including members in the United States, Canada, and Australia. Its extensive digital content library features approximately...
How the Company Makes Money
Gaia primarily makes money through recurring subscription revenue from its direct-to-consumer streaming service, where customers pay ongoing fees to access its content library and any available live or premium programming offered within the platfo...
Gaia Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 10, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a balanced view: management is executing a deliberate strategic shift toward higher-quality direct members and advancing content, AI and product initiatives while delivering measurable cost discipline (>$3M annualized savings, G&A cut ~48%). However, these strategic changes and a temporary spike in acquisition costs led to a 5% revenue decline, margin pressure (gross margin down 1.4 ppt), a wider net loss ($3.0M), and a constrained cash balance ($5.3M). Management has revised near-term profitability expectations (no breakeven in Q4) and is now prioritizing free cash flow, while emphasizing that product and community investments should support improved retention and longer-term financial health.Positive Updates
Strategic Move to Higher-Quality Direct Members
Management deliberately shifted toward direct, higher-quality members and away from lower-value regions and third-party channels; targeting a 20% improvement in both churn reduction and member growth by Q4 and reporting they are on track with this framework.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline
Second-quarter revenue was $23.3M, down 5% year-over-year, with the decline primarily driven by the intentional pullback in international and lower-value revenue sources.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strategic Move to Higher-Quality Direct Members
Management deliberately shifted toward direct, higher-quality members and away from lower-value regions and third-party channels; targeting a 20% improvement in both churn reduction and member growth by Q4 and reporting they are on track with this framework.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Gaia said Q3 should be similar to Q2 (the revenue trough) with sequential revenue growth into Q4, but it is no longer targeting breakeven net income in Q4 and is instead focused on returning to positive free cash flow in Q4; Q2 revenue was $23.3M (down 5% YoY), gross profit $19.9M with an 85.3% gross margin (vs. 86.7% prior year), operating expenses $21.6M (vs. $20.6M), G&A $1.5M (vs. $2.9M), and a net loss of $3.0M or ($0.12) per share (vs. $1.8M or ($0.07)); cash was $5.3M at June 30 with a fully available $10M credit line, seasonality reduced cash inflows by $2.4M versus Q1, the company has identified/realized over $3M of annualized savings and expects cost benefits by year-end, annualized gross profit per employee rose to $819K, and management reiterated unit economics of direct members with LTV > $500 vs. CAC $85 (~6:1), a targeted 20% improvement in both churn and growth by Q4, and that a temporary CPA spike in April–May tied to an advertising algorithm change has been corrected.Gaia Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
38
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 98.13M | 98.95M | 90.36M | 80.42M | 82.03M | 79.57M |
| Gross Profit | 82.84M | 86.16M | 77.81M | 68.79M | 71.12M | 69.05M |
| EBITDA | 6.45M | 13.38M | 13.19M | 11.97M | 13.16M | 15.13M |
| Net Income | -5.96M | -4.49M | -5.23M | -5.80M | -3.89M | 3.73M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 147.69M | 154.65M | 141.22M | 130.27M | 135.18M | 133.68M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.27M | 13.54M | 5.86M | 7.77M | 11.56M | 10.27M |
| Total Debt | 14.38M | 14.79M | 11.51M | 12.44M | 22.34M | 14.92M |
| Total Liabilities | 49.64M | 52.52M | 47.20M | 43.49M | 49.32M | 43.46M |
| Stockholders Equity | 84.27M | 87.95M | 80.67M | 85.50M | 84.79M | 90.22M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -5.41M | -377.00K | 1.94M | 596.00K | -6.74M | 3.53M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -1.79M | 5.67M | 6.92M | 5.87M | 11.52M | 20.87M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -11.75M | -10.05M | -15.00M | -5.28M | -19.10M | -23.86M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 4.89M | 12.05M | 6.17M | -4.38M | 8.88M | 655.00K |
Gaia Technical Analysis
Negative
1.56
Price Trends
1.80
Negative
2.20
Negative
2.79
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.05
Negative
47.10
Neutral
64.03
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GAIA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.56 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.51, below the 50-day MA of 1.80, and below the 200-day MA of 2.79, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GAIA.
Gaia Risk Analysis
Gaia disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Gaia reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Gaia Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% | |
52 Neutral | $74.82M | -4.25 | 63.61% | ― | -2.17% | 25.32% | |
50 Neutral | $2.37B | -2.49 | 31.43% | 12.27% | 6.41% | -19.34% | |
45 Neutral | $54.91M | -3.94 | -27.24% | ― | 6.28% | -410.92% | |
45 Neutral | $460.47M | -1.06 | -82.08% | ― | ― | ― | |
44 Neutral | $40.68M | -6.64 | -6.90% | 3.90% | 3.22% | -19.05% | |
43 Neutral | $47.85M | -1.97 | 114.87% | ― | -23.12% | 13.43% |
* General Sector Average
GAIA
Gaia
1.60
-3.97
-71.27%
CNVS
Cineverse
2.31
-1.22
-34.56%
AMC
AMC Entertainment
2.65
-0.18
-6.36%
RDI
Reading International
2.34
0.80
51.95%
LVO
LiveOne
3.49
-1.03
-22.84%
STRZ
Starz Entertainment Corp
26.89
14.06
109.59%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.