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Forge Global Holdings (FRGE)
NYSE:FRGE
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Forge Global Holdings
(NYSE:FRGE)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$17.00
▼(-3.52% Downside)
Forge Global Holdings has a mixed outlook. The most significant strength is the positive sentiment from the earnings call, highlighting revenue growth and strategic initiatives. However, financial performance is hindered by persistent losses and negative cash flows, and the stock's valuation is unattractive due to a negative P/E ratio. Technical indicators suggest neutral momentum, adding to the cautious outlook.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates strong marketplace performance and expanding market reach, which are crucial for long-term business sustainability.
Strategic Acquisitions
Strategic acquisitions like Accuidity enhance Forge's service offerings, potentially increasing market share and competitive positioning in the fintech industry.
Improved EBITDA
Improved EBITDA indicates better operational efficiency and cost management, which are critical for achieving long-term profitability.
Negative Factors
Profitability Challenges
Ongoing profitability challenges can hinder long-term growth and investment potential, requiring strategic efforts to improve margins.
Cash Flow Issues
Negative free cash flow reflects operational inefficiencies and reliance on external financing, impacting financial stability and growth potential.
Revenue Forecasting Challenges
Difficulty in forecasting transaction-based revenue can lead to unpredictable financial performance, affecting strategic planning and investor confidence.
Forge Global Holdings (FRGE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$225.10M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)76.04K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.60
Revenue Growth14.78%
EPS Growth21.87%
CountryUS
Employees300
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.34
Shares Outstanding13,601,362
10 Day Avg. Volume58,755
30 Day Avg. Volume76,036
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)0.76
Price to Sales (P/S)2.15
P/FCF Ratio-4.12
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.77
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.91
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-7.96
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-2.85
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$35.25Price Target Upside100.06% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
Forge Global Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionForge Global Holdings, Inc. provides marketplace infrastructure, data services, and technology solutions for private market participants. It enables private company shareholders to trade private company shares with accredited investors. The company was founded in 2014 and is based in San Francisco, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyForge Global Holdings makes money primarily through transaction fees charged on the trades executed on its platform. These fees are levied on both the buy-side and sell-side participants in private equity transactions. Additionally, the company generates revenue through ancillary services such as data analytics and advisory services that provide insights into the private markets. Forge may also engage in strategic partnerships with financial institutions and other entities that facilitate access to a broader range of private market opportunities, thereby enhancing its revenue streams.
Forge Global Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 01, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant achievements, including record-breaking revenue and improved adjusted EBITDA, alongside strategic acquisitions and positive trends in the private AI sector. However, challenges in forecasting transaction-based income and expected seasonal revenue declines were noted. Overall, the sentiment was positive with the company's growth and strategic initiatives outweighing the anticipated challenges.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Revenue and Growth
Q2 2025 was the second consecutive record-breaking quarter for revenue, reaching $27.6 million, a 10% increase from the prior quarter, driven by strong marketplace performance.
Improved Adjusted EBITDA
The adjusted EBITDA loss was the lowest since going public, improving by 39% quarter-over-quarter, with operating cash burn also decreasing significantly.
Successful Launch of Next-Generation Marketplace
Forge launched its next-generation marketplace, which is designed to reduce friction and enable investors to transact with confidence and autonomy.
Strategic Acquisitions and Partnerships
Closed the acquisition of Accuidity, enhancing asset management and wealth capabilities. Also signed data agreements with ICE and Fortune.
Positive Market Trends in Private AI Sector
The private AI sector led with a return of 63.1% year-to-date, outperforming public benchmarks.
Negative Updates
Challenges in Predicting Transaction-Based Income
Despite growth, a large proportion of revenue remains transaction-based, making forecasting difficult, especially in an unpredictable macroenvironment.
Seasonal Revenue Decline Anticipated
Revenues in Q3 are expected to be lower than Q2 and Q4 due to seasonality, particularly in July and early August.
Company Guidance
During the Forge Second Quarter Fiscal 2025 Financial Results Conference Call, several key metrics and guidance were highlighted. The company reported a record revenue of $27.6 million, marking a 10% increase from the previous quarter, and a trading volume increase of 9% to $756 million. The adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $5.4 million, a significant improvement from the $8.9 million loss in the prior quarter. Forge's strategic initiatives have led to a more evenly distributed volume mix, with an improvement in net take rates from 2.3% to 2.4%. Custodial administration fees remained stable at $9.1 million, while the company's net cash used in operating activities decreased significantly. The call also underscored the company's expectation to reach adjusted EBITDA breakeven in 2026, supported by ongoing operational scalability, enhanced technology platforms, and the integration of their recent acquisition of Accuidity.Forge Global Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Forge Global Holdings shows potential with revenue growth and a strong equity position, but faces significant challenges in achieving profitability and generating positive cash flow. Persistent losses and negative cash flows are critical areas that require strategic focus.Income Statement
Forge Global Holdings has experienced a decline in revenue from its peak in 2021, with the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue showing modest growth over 2024. Despite this growth, the company continues to struggle with profitability, as indicated by negative gross and net profit margins. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, reflecting ongoing operational challenges. The revenue growth trajectory is positive but overshadowed by persistent losses.42
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reveals a strong equity base with an improving debt position, as evidenced by low and declining levels of total debt. The equity ratio remains healthy, indicating strong shareholder backing. However, there is a significant decline in total assets, and while the debt-to-equity ratio is favorable, the company must leverage its equity to improve profitability and asset utilization.55
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis shows ongoing negative free cash flow, although the free cash flow deficit has slightly decreased from previous periods. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is concerning, reflecting inefficiencies in converting income into cash. The company must improve operational efficiencies to stabilize cash flows and reduce reliance on external financing.38
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 90.84M | 79.33M | 69.82M | 68.90M | 128.06M | 47.76M |
| Gross Profit | -21.74M | -42.07M | 69.39M | -112.94M | 125.02M | 43.87M |
| EBITDA | -60.72M | -72.95M | -80.62M | -119.90M | -713.00K | -2.02M |
| Net Income | -66.88M | -66.33M | -90.22M | -111.91M | -18.50M | -9.71M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 242.84M | 263.51M | 310.73M | 363.73M | 257.89M | 258.50M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 81.84M | 106.21M | 152.42M | 193.14M | 74.78M | 40.58M |
| Total Debt | 14.87M | 14.57M | 10.82M | 7.44M | 10.53M | 31.29M |
| Total Liabilities | 42.74M | 36.76M | 42.31M | 38.27M | 64.48M | 109.15M |
| Stockholders Equity | 196.38M | 223.58M | 263.51M | 319.39M | 193.42M | 149.35M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -34.90M | -41.33M | -41.98M | -75.46M | 7.64M | -3.69M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -34.33M | -40.53M | -41.46M | -68.81M | 10.90M | -2.53M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -26.77M | 5.47M | -8.16M | -6.65M | -3.26M | -23.37M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -5.83M | -3.89M | 57.00K | 192.86M | 26.58M | 39.38M |
Forge Global Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
17.62
Price Trends
18.36
Negative
17.67
Negative
14.75
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.30
Negative
54.08
Neutral
55.10
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FRGE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 17.62 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.63, below the 50-day MA of 18.36, and above the 200-day MA of 14.75, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.30 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.10 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FRGE.
Forge Global Holdings Risk Analysis
Forge Global Holdings disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Forge Global Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Forge Global Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
54 Neutral | $232.26M | ― | -22.60% | ― | -6.88% | 15.83% | |
50 Neutral | $225.10M | ― | -28.14% | ― | 14.78% | 21.87% | |
49 Neutral | $144.36M | ― | -16.75% | ― | 19.67% | -1183.48% | |
48 Neutral | $248.09M | ― | 180.24% | ― | 91.86% | 52.66% | |
48 Neutral | $222.96M | ― | -105.81% | ― | -10.85% | -15.09% | |
47 Neutral | $233.53M | ― | -11.81% | ― | -11.54% | -54.32% |
* Financial Sector Average
FRGE
Forge Global Holdings
17.62
-2.48
-12.34%
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210.21%
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1.13
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5.52
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1.55
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.