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ON24 (ONTF) AI Stock Analysis

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ONTF

ON24

(NYSE:ONTF)

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Neutral 56 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$6.00
▲(4.17% Upside)
ON24's overall stock score is influenced by significant financial challenges, including declining revenues and persistent losses. However, positive earnings call sentiment and technical indicators showing short-term bullish momentum provide some optimism. Valuation remains a concern due to negative earnings and lack of dividends.
Positive Factors
AI Innovation
The adoption of AI-powered ACE solutions by a mid-teens percentage of customers indicates ON24's commitment to innovation and positions it well for future growth in digital engagement technologies.
Enterprise Customer Growth
The growth in high-value enterprise customers demonstrates ON24's ability to attract and retain large clients, strengthening its market position and revenue potential.
Cash Flow Management
Achieving positive adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow for six consecutive quarters highlights ON24's operational discipline and ability to generate cash, supporting long-term financial stability.
Negative Factors
Declining Revenue
Declining revenues pose a challenge to ON24's profitability and growth prospects, necessitating strategic adjustments to reverse this trend and sustain long-term business health.
Profitability Issues
Negative profit margins indicate significant profitability issues, which can hinder ON24's ability to reinvest in growth and innovation, impacting its competitive position.
ARR Performance
Marginally negative ARR performance reflects challenges in maintaining consistent revenue streams, which could affect ON24's long-term financial stability and growth trajectory.

ON24 (ONTF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

ON24 Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionON24, Inc. provides a cloud-based digital experience platform that enables businesses to convert customer engagement into revenue through interactive webinar, virtual event, and multimedia content experiences worldwide. The company provides ON24 Experience products, such as ON24 Elite, a live and interactive webinar experience; ON24 Breakouts, a live breakout room experience that facilitates networking, collaboration and interactivity between users; ON24 Go Live, a live, interactive video event experience that enables presenters and attendees to engage face-to-face in real-time; ON24 Virtual Confrence, a live and large scale virtual event experience; ON24 Engagement Hub, a rich multimedia content experience; and ON24 Target, a personalized and curated rich multimedia content experience, as well as solutions; ON24 Intelligence, an analytics backbone that captures first-person data to power the insights, benchmarking, reporting, and artificial intelligence and machine learning engine; and ON24 Connect, an ecosystem of third-party application integrations. It also offers professional services, such as experience management, monitoring, premium support, and implementation and other services. The company sells its products through direct sales. It serves technology, financial services, healthcare, industrial and manufacturing, professional services, and business-to-business information service industries. The company was formerly known as NewsDirect, Inc. and changed its name to ON24, Inc. in December 1998. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyON24 generates revenue through a subscription-based model, where clients pay for access to its platform and services. The company offers various pricing tiers based on the level of service, number of users, and features required by the customer. Additionally, ON24 earns money through professional services, which include training, event management, and support to help customers maximize their use of the platform. Strategic partnerships with other technology providers enhance ON24's offerings and expand its customer reach by integrating with marketing automation, CRM, and other business software tools. This interconnected ecosystem facilitates customer acquisition and retention, contributing to ON24's revenue growth.

ON24 Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a positive trajectory for ON24 with notable achievements in revenue, customer base expansion, and AI adoption. Despite challenges in ARR performance and specific market segments, the company demonstrates strong financial discipline and strategic alignment, positioning it well for future growth.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Exceeded Q2 Expectations
ON24 exceeded its Q2 expectations with total revenue of $35.3 million and core platform ARR of $125.1 million, supported by high gross retention and increased enterprise customer commitments.
Growth in $100,000-plus ARR Customer Base
The $100,000-plus ARR customer base grew, showing traction in enterprise segments with high-value accounts leveraging ON24's solutions for business results.
AI-Powered ACE Adoption
A mid-teens percentage of customers are paying for ON24's AI-powered ACE solutions, indicating growing customer commitment and adoption of AI innovations.
Positive Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow
ON24 achieved positive adjusted EBITDA and positive free cash flow for the sixth consecutive quarter, emphasizing operational discipline.
Enterprise Go-to-Market Strategy Success
ON24 made meaningful advances in aligning sales, customer success, and marketing around a unified approach, resulting in improved pipeline and customer engagement.
Customer Win-Backs and New Entrants
Continued win-back momentum from boomerang customers and new enterprise customers, including a leading financial services company and a global payments platform.
Capital Return Program
ON24 utilized $6.8 million for share repurchases under a $50 million capital return program, highlighting strong balance sheet management.
Negative Updates
ARR Performance
ARR performance was marginally negative for the first half of 2025, though there was improvement compared to the same period last year.
Seasonal Weakness in Q3
Q3 is expected to be a seasonally softer quarter, with core ARR expected to be relatively consistent with Q2, showing a potential decline of $0.5 million to $1.5 million.
Challenges in Specific Market Segments
Some market segments, such as manufacturing, continue to face challenges, impacting customer appetite and market environment.
Company Guidance
During the ON24 Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided guidance for the third quarter and full fiscal year 2025. ON24 expects Q3 total revenue to range between $33.6 million and $34.2 million, with core platform revenue, including services, between $33.0 million and $33.6 million. The anticipated gross margin for Q3 is approximately 76%, and ON24 expects a non-GAAP operating loss between $1.3 million and $0.7 million, with non-GAAP net income per share ranging from $0.00 to $0.02. For the full year 2025, ON24 projects total revenue between $137.7 million and $138.7 million, with core platform revenue between $135.2 million and $136.2 million. The gross margin for the year is estimated to be between 76% and 77%, and the company aims for a non-GAAP operating loss between $5.2 million and $3.8 million, alongside non-GAAP net income per share of $0.02 to $0.05. ON24 also highlighted its strategic focus on AI innovation and enterprise customer engagement, expecting to achieve positive ARR growth in Q4 2025, driven by improved retention and new business performance.

ON24 Financial Statement Overview

Summary
ON24 faces significant financial challenges, with declining revenues and persistent losses impacting profitability. While the company maintains a strong equity position and low leverage, its ability to generate returns on equity is hampered by ongoing losses. Cash flow shows some improvement, but operational inefficiencies need to be addressed to enhance financial stability and growth prospects.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
ON24's income statement reveals a challenging environment with declining revenues and negative profit margins. The TTM data shows a revenue decline of 1.39% and a net profit margin of -25.34%, indicating significant profitability issues. The gross profit margin remains relatively strong at 74.42%, but the negative EBIT and EBITDA margins highlight operational inefficiencies. The company needs to address these challenges to improve financial health.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet shows a strong equity position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0136, indicating minimal leverage. However, the return on equity is negative at -23.09%, reflecting the company's inability to generate profits from its equity base. The equity ratio is not explicitly provided, but the overall stability is supported by a solid equity base despite profitability challenges.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Cash flow analysis indicates some positive trends, with a free cash flow growth rate of 34.58% in the TTM period. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.088, suggesting limited cash generation relative to net losses. The free cash flow to net income ratio is more favorable at 0.631, showing some ability to convert earnings into cash, but overall cash flow performance remains constrained by operational losses.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue143.07M148.08M163.71M190.87M203.61M156.94M
Gross Profit106.47M110.07M119.48M138.09M156.25M123.61M
EBITDA-37.80M-36.66M-45.34M-49.69M-19.48M24.89M
Net Income-36.26M-42.16M-51.79M-58.21M-24.26M20.75M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets235.12M250.95M280.30M425.47M480.49M156.72M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments179.56M182.74M198.71M328.12M382.56M61.24M
Total Debt2.04M3.39M5.39M9.24M3.99M28.09M
Total Liabilities85.10M91.54M100.08M117.51M125.40M146.52M
Stockholders Equity150.02M159.41M180.22M307.96M355.09M10.20M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow4.58M2.56M-14.38M-24.16M1.63M36.51M
Operating Cash Flow7.26M4.81M-12.20M-20.46M5.19M37.54M
Investing Cash Flow37.22M-19.45M162.31M-88.98M-219.19M970.00K
Financing Cash Flow-22.26M-23.27M-124.18M-28.62M320.51M804.00K

ON24 Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price5.76
Price Trends
50DMA
5.29
Positive
100DMA
5.30
Positive
200DMA
5.66
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.11
Negative
RSI
60.39
Neutral
STOCH
76.52
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ONTF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.76 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.58, above the 50-day MA of 5.29, and above the 200-day MA of 5.66, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ONTF.

ON24 Risk Analysis

ON24 disclosed 54 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ON24 reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

ON24 Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
65
Neutral
293.36M-13.84-9.15%-11.54%-54.32%
63
Neutral
239.41M2.8328.27%5.14%3828.94%129.01%
56
Neutral
$243.68M-22.60%-6.88%15.83%
52
Neutral
289.10M-13.01-16.57%-0.73%67.98%
49
Neutral
394.53M-6.82-41.02%4.05%-100.64%
61
Neutral
$37.18B12.37-10.20%1.83%8.50%-7.62%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ONTF
ON24
5.76
-0.27
-4.48%
EGHT
8X8
2.12
0.19
9.84%
IMMR
Immersion
7.39
-0.88
-10.64%
EB
Eventbrite
3.04
0.21
7.42%
NUKK
Nukkleus
6.23
4.22
209.95%
LAW
CS Disco
6.39
0.70
12.30%

ON24 Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
ON24 Elects New Directors at Annual Meeting
Neutral
Jun 20, 2025

On June 20, 2025, ON24, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, during which Ronald Mitchell and Anthony Zingale were elected as Class I directors to serve until the 2026 annual meeting. Additionally, the appointment of KPMG LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, was ratified.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 29, 2025