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La Francaise des Jeux SA (FR:FDJU)
:FDJU
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La Francaise des Jeux SA (FDJU) AI Stock Analysis

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FR:FDJU

La Francaise des Jeux SA

(FDJU)

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Neutral 50 (OpenAI - Gpt-5.6Sol)
Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
€22.50
▲(0.58% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/29/26
The score is held back primarily by weakened recent profitability (sharp 2025 net income drop), higher leverage since 2024, and declining free cash flow in 2024–2025. Technical indicators are broadly neutral and do not provide strong support. Valuation is a major risk due to the very high P/E, only partly mitigated by a high dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Consistent Revenue Growth
Sustained revenue growth indicates continued demand for FDJ’s lottery and betting products. Although growth moderated in 2025, the multi-year trend supports the durability of its established brands, distribution network and digital channels.
Negative Factors
Sharp 2025 Net Income Decline
The divergence between stronger operating profit and sharply lower net income points to heavier interest, tax or other below-the-line costs. If persistent, this weakens earnings quality and reduces the cash available for reinvestment or distributions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Consistent Revenue Growth
Sustained revenue growth indicates continued demand for FDJ’s lottery and betting products. Although growth moderated in 2025, the multi-year trend supports the durability of its established brands, distribution network and digital channels.
Read all positive factors

La Francaise des Jeux SA (FDJU) vs. iShares MSCI France ETF (EWQ)

La Francaise des Jeux SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
FDJ United is a company primarily focused on the management and distribution of various gaming and gambling services, operating both within France and internationally. Its business activities are organized into three main segments: Lottery, Sports...
How the Company Makes Money
FDJ makes money by operating gambling games and retaining a portion of the amounts wagered or staked by players, after paying out winnings and accounting for taxes and regulatory levies. Its main revenue streams are (1) lottery games: players purc...

La Francaise des Jeux SA Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 18, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a mixed but resilient picture. Highlights include record free cash flow, strong LSF performance, completion of the Kindred integration, accelerated operational efficiencies (performance plan upgraded to €150m), and a proposed dividend increase — all signals of financial strength and execution. Offsetting these positives are material tax and regulatory headwinds (notably in the Netherlands and new UK taxation), an underperforming OBG BU with a sharp margin decline, sizeable nonrecurring impairments and higher short-term IT costs tied to platform migrations. Management’s actions (performance plan, tech roadmap, brand consolidation and responsible-gaming investments) and strong cash generation mitigate many risks, but the near-term outlook remains challenged by taxes and regulatory uncertainty.
Positive Updates
Strong overall financial and cash generation
Group GGR c.€8.7bn, revenue c.€3.7bn and recurring EBITDA €902m (margin 24.5%). Record free cash flow €782m, +16% YoY, with recurring EBITDA-to-cash conversion at 87% (above the >80% guidance). Net financial debt €1.7bn (down ~€100m) and leverage ~1.9x.
Negative Updates
Significant tax and regulatory headwinds
Cumulative gaming tax increases (France, Netherlands, Romania, Sweden, others) reduced net gaming revenue by ~3% in 2025 and had >€50m negative impact on revenue and EBITDA in FY25. Management cites a 2026 incremental calendar effect: ~€140m impact on NGR vs 2024 and >€150m impact on EBITDA when including advertising tax. UK tax alone ~€30m in 2026 (rising to >€40m in 2027). Average tax on GGR ~59.9% (vs 58.5% in 2024).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Negative
Strong overall financial and cash generation
Group GGR c.€8.7bn, revenue c.€3.7bn and recurring EBITDA €902m (margin 24.5%). Record free cash flow €782m, +16% YoY, with recurring EBITDA-to-cash conversion at 87% (above the >80% guidance). Net financial debt €1.7bn (down ~€100m) and leverage ~1.9x.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
FDJ United’s 2026 guidance targets GGR growth (stronger in H2) with OBG expected to drive higher GGR growth than LSF though revenue growth should be broadly comparable given new taxes, and management is targeting stability in recurring EBITDA margin versus 2025 (group 24.5%; LSF 36%; OBG 20%) while continuing the performance plan (€50m delivered in 2025, ~€50m incremental in 2026 for a ~€100m cumulative effect in 2026 and a raised target of €150m of recurrent efficiencies by end‑2028). Model assumptions include cumulative 2026 tax/calendar effects of ~€140m on NGR (>€150m EBITDA impact including ad tax), a UK tax hit of ~€30m in 2026 (rising to >€40m in 2027), Romanian annualization of ~€8m, PPA amortization ~€200m gross (~€170m net), CapEx ~€160m (c.4–5% of revenue), adjusted net income c.€487m, free cash‑flow conversion >80% (2025 was 87% with FCF €782m), net debt reduction of ~€100m (net debt/recurring EBITDA ~1.9x), and a proposed dividend of €2.10 per share with a commitment to annual increases and a payout policy above ~75% of adjusted net income.

La Francaise des Jeux SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Financial statements are mixed: revenue has grown steadily (moderating to ~5% in 2025) and operating cash flow improved in 2025, but net income fell sharply in 2025 despite higher EBIT/EBITDA (suggesting heavier below-the-line costs). Balance-sheet risk increased as debt rose to roughly ~2.0x equity since 2024 while equity declined into 2025, reducing flexibility. Free cash flow has trended down in 2024–2025, including an estimated ~24% drop in 2025.
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.59B3.68B3.07B2.62B2.46B2.26B
Gross Profit1.17B1.21B1.70B1.23B1.04B934.80M
EBITDA864.90M885.30M802.50M703.70M590.20M547.50M
Net Income24.00M175.90M398.80M425.10M307.90M294.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets5.40B5.84B6.56B3.76B3.34B3.21B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments419.20M794.10M843.20M749.70M720.40M688.40M
Total Debt2.21B2.26B2.33B428.80M468.20M518.90M
Total Liabilities4.82B4.86B5.37B2.69B2.41B2.38B
Stockholders Equity578.50M974.80M1.19B1.07B925.40M829.10M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow173.30M496.10M427.10M504.20M299.70M522.00M
Operating Cash Flow345.90M765.40M577.00M628.90M403.80M597.50M
Investing Cash Flow41.70M-278.50M-1.76B-21.70M-181.70M-301.50M
Financing Cash Flow-452.20M-523.80M1.33B-580.50M-315.20M-366.80M

La Francaise des Jeux SA Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price22.37
Price Trends
50DMA
22.43
Negative
100DMA
22.64
Negative
200DMA
22.33
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.03
Negative
RSI
48.98
Neutral
STOCH
45.45
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FR:FDJU, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 22.37 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.25, below the 50-day MA of 22.43, and above the 200-day MA of 22.33, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FR:FDJU.

La Francaise des Jeux SA Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
66
Neutral
€4.12B29.286.65%1.45%12.18%2.47%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
59
Neutral
€170.17M3.7611.74%7.02%4.53%426.70%
50
Neutral
€4.12B168.239.42%2.55%-92.52%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
FR:FDJU
La Francaise des Jeux SA
22.29
-3.66
-14.12%
FR:BAIN
Monte-Carlo Societe des Bains de Mer
135.00
30.21
28.83%
FR:PARP
Groupe Partouche SA
17.70
0.11
0.65%
FR:FCMC
Societe Fermiere du Casino Municipal de Cannes SA
2,800.00
1,230.00
78.34%

La Francaise des Jeux SA Corporate Events

FDJ UNITED Navigates Tax Hit and Lottery Weakness but Confirms 2026 Profit Targets
Jul 29, 2026
FDJ UNITED reported first-half 2026 gross gaming revenue of €4.314 billion, down 1.3%, and revenue of €1.782 billion, down 4.5%, largely due to higher gaming taxes across several markets and weaker lottery jackpots. The French lottery ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 29, 2026