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Five Point Holdings (FPH) AI Stock Analysis
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Five Point Holdings
(NYSE:FPH)
The score is primarily constrained by sharply weaker cash generation and volatile earnings, despite a strong balance sheet. Negative technical momentum and reduced near-term guidance add risk, while the low P/E ratio, strong liquidity, recurring management revenue, and extended Great Park agreement provide meaningful support.
Five Point Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Revenue by GeographyRevenue split across regions, indicating where sales of homes, lots, commercial space, and related services are generated. Knowing the geographic source of revenue helps investors judge growth potential and vulnerability to local housing demand, price sensitivity, and policy or economic changes that can quickly affect cash flow for a land‑heavy developer like Five Point.
Revenue is extremely lumpy and concentrated in Great Park and sporadically Valencia, with gigantic quarter spikes tied to community lot/home closings; Commercial revenue disappears after 2024‑Q4 (zero thereafter), suggesting a divestiture or reclassification that removes a predictable revenue slice. 'Other' posts large negative swings—likely eliminations or reserve adjustments—adding noise and masking operational trends. New small Hearthstone revenue from late‑2025 shows nascent community deliveries. For investors, focus on closing schedules and backlog rather than quarter-to-quarter headline revenue.
The FlyFive Point Holdings (FPH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $300.05M
- Dividend Yield
- ―
- Average Volume (3M)
- 201.19K
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 10.2
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.72
- Revenue Growth
- -39.15%
- EPS Growth
- -69.83%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 90
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Sector Strength
- 65
- Industry
- Real Estate - Development
Five Point Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Five Point Holdings, LLC, primarily operating through its subsidiary, Five Point Operating Company, LP, specializes in the ownership and development of large-scale, multi-purpose communities across Orange, Los Angeles, and San Francisco Counties in C...
How the Company Makes Money
Five Point primarily makes money by monetizing land within its master-planned communities after it has invested in planning, entitlements, and infrastructure. The company’s key revenue streams are: (1) Land sales: The core source of revenue is the sa...
Five Point Holdings Earnings Call Summary
The call was broadly optimistic despite near-term housing market pressure. Management emphasized strong liquidity, low net leverage, recurring fee-based revenue, progress on Great Park, Valencia, Candlestick, and Hearthstone, and continued investment in long-term opportunities. Near-term results were weakened by a $4.4 million net loss, no significant third-quarter land sales, slowing Great Park absorption, deferred transactions, and a reduced full-year outlook.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
Management now expects “a small amount of consolidated net income in the fourth quarter” and “approximately $20 million of consolidated net income” for the year, with “no more sales” at Great Park and “a sale of approximately 5 acres at Valencia,” and expects to finish the year with “over $300 million of cash and cash equivalents”; land sales are likely to be pushed to 2027, San Francisco’s first sales are expected in 2028, “probably towards the latter part of 2028,” and development spending is being managed so as “not to spend more than we have spent this year in total,” which was “about 125 for the total for the year this year,” with an effort to “keep it around that next year as well.”
Five Point Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
The balance sheet is strong, with materially reduced leverage and substantial equity, while revenue and margins remain profitable. However, weak recent operating and free cash flow, low return on equity, negative EBIT, and volatile earnings materially reduce the score.
Income Statement
68PositiveBalance Sheet
78PositiveCash Flow
38Negative| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 118.00M | 110.02M | 237.93M | 211.73M | 42.69M | 224.39M |
| Gross Profit | 48.91M | 44.47M | 118.83M | 77.74M | -58.83M | 80.10M |
| EBITDA | 100.51M | 221.21M | 224.46M | 129.23M | -19.30M | 38.97M |
| Net Income | 29.34M | 70.97M | 68.30M | 55.39M | -15.40M | 6.57M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.23B | 3.24B | 3.08B | 2.97B | 2.89B | 2.94B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 358.72M | 426.54M | 430.88M | 354.79M | 131.77M | 265.46M |
| Total Debt | 452.30M | 518.07M | 598.77M | 692.54M | 699.35M | 708.69M |
| Total Liabilities | 825.01M | 860.41M | 896.32M | 962.18M | 992.74M | 1.02B |
| Stockholders Equity | 849.66M | 843.25M | 749.44M | 678.05M | 618.13M | 634.42M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 6.01M | 105.01M | 115.18M | 154.12M | -188.38M | -81.57M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.35M | 105.23M | 115.99M | 154.12M | -188.30M | -81.42M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 72.98M | -6.55M | 70.06M | 77.11M | 63.99M | 75.31M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -71.74M | -104.01M | -108.98M | -9.20M | -9.72M | -26.58M |
Five Point Holdings Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FPH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.18 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.34, below the 50-day MA of 4.71, and below the 200-day MA of 5.05, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.16 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FPH.
Five Point Holdings Risk Analysis
Five Point Holdings disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Five Point Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Latest Risks Added
0 New RisksFive Point Holdings Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
JOE70Outperform
FOR68Neutral
HHH64Neutral
AXR62Neutral- FPH58Neutral
MLP39Underperform
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JOE | 70Outperform | $3.96B | 33.03 | 15.84% | 0.91% | 11.10% | 17.69% |
| FOR | 68Neutral | $1.22B | 8.58 | 7.73% | ― | -1.64% | -15.37% |
| Sector * | 65Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% |
| HHH | 64Neutral | $4.55B | 15.40 | 7.18% | ― | 31.83% | 7.70% |
| AXR | 62Neutral | $111.13M | 18.94 | 4.21% | ― | -15.29% | -56.15% |
| FPH | 58Neutral | $459.02M | 10.22 | 3.47% | ― | -39.15% | -69.83% |
| MLP | 39Underperform | $285.97M | -62.74 | -14.25% | ― | -4.11% | 66.64% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPH | Five Point Holdings | 4.18 | -1.70 | -28.91% | |
| AXR | AMREP Corporation | 20.87 | -0.74 | -3.42% | |
| FOR | Forestar | 23.94 | -1.69 | -6.59% | |
| HHH | Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. | 76.23 | -2.17 | -2.77% | |
| MLP | Maui Land & Pineapple | 14.40 | -1.10 | -7.10% | |
| JOE | St. Joe Co | 70.02 | 11.86 | 20.40% |
Five Point Holdings Corporate Events
Five Point Holdings Extends Great Park Management Agreement
PositiveOn September 29, 2026, Five Point Holdings extended its Development Management Agreement with Heritage Fields El Toro, owner of the Great Park Neighborhoods community, through December 31, 2028. Under this agreement, Five Point, via its subsidiaries,...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Oct 24, 2026