Firefly Aerospace, Inc. (FLY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: N/A
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.27M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): -0.35
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 780
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Aerospace & Defense
• EPS (TTM): -5.78
• Shares Outstanding: 146,539,260
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,208,557
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,267,957
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): >-0.01
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.13
• P/FCF Ratio: -0.04
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 0.00
• 1Y Price Target: $52.29
• Price Target Upside: 170.51% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 37 Underperform
• Price Target: $18.00 ▼(-6.88% Downside)

Firefly Aerospace's overall stock score is heavily impacted by its financial performance and technical analysis. The company faces significant financial challenges, including negative profitability and solvency concerns. Technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, with the stock trading below key moving averages and showing oversold conditions. Valuation metrics are unfavorable due to the lack of positive earnings, further weighing down the score.

Positive Factors

Strong Backlog and New Contracts

A robust backlog of $1.3 billion, including significant contracts like NASA's Blue Ghost Mission 4, indicates strong future revenue potential and market demand.

Successful IPO

The successful IPO provides substantial capital, enhancing financial stability and enabling investment in growth initiatives, strengthening long-term prospects.

FAA Approval and Alpha Rocket Progress

FAA approval for the Alpha rocket's return to flight supports operational expansion and increased launch frequency, bolstering competitive positioning in the aerospace sector.

Negative Factors

Declining Profitability

Worsening net profit margins reflect operational inefficiencies and cost management issues, threatening long-term financial health and sustainability.

Negative Cash Flow

Persistent negative free cash flow indicates ongoing cash burn, which could constrain future investments and operational flexibility, impacting growth.

High Leverage and Negative Equity

High leverage and negative equity pose solvency risks, limiting financial flexibility and increasing vulnerability to economic downturns.

Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Firefly Aerospace, Inc. (FLY) is an American aerospace manufacturer and small satellite launch service provider, focused on developing and delivering reliable and cost-effective launch solutions for small payloads. Founded in 2014 and headquartered in Caddo Mills, Texas, Firefly is dedicated to supporting the growing demand for small satellite launches across various sectors, including commercial, government, and scientific applications. The company's core product, the Alpha rocket, is designed to transport small satellites into low Earth orbit (LEO), while its future projects include the Beta rocket and additional technologies aimed at expanding access to space.

How the Company Makes Money

Firefly Aerospace generates revenue primarily through the launch of small satellites for commercial and government clients. The company's revenue model consists of charging clients for launch services, which includes payload integration, transportation, and flight execution. Key revenue streams include contracts with various customers, including government contracts from agencies like NASA and the Department of Defense, as well as commercial agreements with satellite operators. Additionally, Firefly has formed strategic partnerships with other aerospace companies and organizations that enhance its capabilities and market reach. The company also aims to capitalize on the growing demand for satellite-based services by offering competitive pricing and reliable launch schedules, contributing to its overall earnings.

Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Firefly Aerospace faces substantial financial challenges. Despite revenue growth, profitability metrics are declining, and the balance sheet reflects high leverage and negative equity. Cash flow issues further exacerbate the financial instability, highlighting the need for strategic financial restructuring and cost management.

Income Statement

Firefly Aerospace's income statement reveals significant challenges. The company experienced a revenue growth of 10.06%, which is positive, but the gross profit margin turned negative, indicating cost management issues. The net profit margin worsened to -380.20%, reflecting deeper losses. EBIT and EBITDA margins also deteriorated, highlighting operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a concerning financial structure with negative stockholders' equity, indicating potential solvency issues. The debt-to-equity ratio is negative due to negative equity, and the return on equity is misleadingly positive due to the negative equity base. The equity ratio is not calculable, but the overall leverage and capital structure pose significant risks.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates declining free cash flow, with a negative growth rate of -11.52%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, suggesting cash flow issues relative to reported losses. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is above 1, indicating that cash outflows are somewhat aligned with net losses.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023
Income Statement
Total Revenue	71.40M	60.79M	55.23M
Gross Profit	6.21M	-11.37M	26.60M
EBITDA	-105.57M	-198.22M	-126.79M
Net Income	-123.87M	-231.13M	-135.46M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	466.79M	407.33M	321.21M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	205.29M	123.43M	81.94M
Total Debt	167.55M	168.40M	120.95M
Total Liabilities	1.38B	1.17B	825.69M
Stockholders Equity	-918.00M	-767.62M	-504.49M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-96.46M	-190.35M	-170.68M
Operating Cash Flow	-84.62M	-157.65M	-93.43M
Investing Cash Flow	-11.84M	-32.70M	-69.99M
Financing Cash Flow	180.44M	232.76M	240.73M

Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
SPCE	49 Neutral	$209.63M	―	-91.98%	―	-84.19%	55.27%
RKLB	46 Neutral	$27.31B	―	-40.45%	―	54.36%	-26.35%
SIDU	42 Neutral	$36.66M	-0.50	-157.68%	―	-2.60%	82.24%
MNTS	41 Neutral	$12.22M	-0.08	―	―	-70.65%	90.41%
FLY	37 Underperform	―	―	―	―	―	―
EVTL	25 Underperform	$418.74M	―	―	―	―	―

Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Corporate Events

Firefly Aerospace Acquires SciTec Innovations for Growth

On October 31, 2025, Firefly Aerospace completed its acquisition of SciTec Innovations, a leader in national security technologies, for approximately $855.6 million. This acquisition, announced on November 5, 2025, enhances Firefly’s strategic growth by integrating SciTec’s defense software, big data processing, and classified facilities, thereby strengthening its capabilities in national security programs and expanding its talent pool with over 475 employees.

The most recent analyst rating on (FLY) stock is a Hold with a $27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firefly Aerospace, Inc. stock, see the FLY Stock Forecast page.

Firefly Aerospace Acquires SciTec for $855 Million

On October 5, 2025, Firefly Aerospace announced its acquisition of SciTec, Inc., a leader in national security technologies, for $855 million. This strategic move aims to enhance Firefly’s capabilities in defense missions by integrating SciTec’s advanced software and data processing expertise, which will support Firefly’s space and defense services. The acquisition, expected to close by the end of 2025, will position Firefly to deliver more integrated solutions for national security, expanding its market reach and operational advantage.

The most recent analyst rating on (FLY) stock is a Buy with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firefly Aerospace, Inc. stock, see the FLY Stock Forecast page.

Firefly Aerospace’s Earnings Call: Triumphs and Challenges

Firefly Aerospace’s recent earnings call paints a picture of both triumph and challenge. The company celebrated significant milestones such as a historic IPO and strategic partnerships, yet these achievements were contrasted by financial hurdles, including a decline in quarterly revenue and ongoing net losses. This mixed sentiment underscores a complex performance outlook for the company.

Firefly Aerospace Reports First Earnings Post-IPO

Firefly Aerospace, Inc. is a space and defense technology company that provides launch, land, and operational services in space for both government and commercial customers. Known for its rapid response capabilities, Firefly is the only commercial entity to have successfully landed on the Moon and launched a satellite into orbit with a 24-hour notice.

Firefly Aerospace Secures $176.7M NASA Contract

Firefly Aerospace announced its second quarter 2025 financial results following a historic IPO, highlighting a backlog increase to $1.3 billion and FAA clearance for its Alpha vehicle’s return to flight. Significant developments include a $176.7 million NASA contract for Blue Ghost Mission 4, a $50 million investment from Northrop Grumman, and a new contract with the U.S. Department of Defense for a 2027 mission. The company is ramping up production to meet demand for its launch services, with several Alpha vehicles in production and plans for the debut launch of the Eclipse vehicle.

The most recent analyst rating on (FLY) stock is a Buy with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firefly Aerospace, Inc. stock, see the FLY Stock Forecast page.

Firefly Aerospace Receives FAA Clearance for Alpha Launches

On August 26, 2025, Firefly Aerospace announced that it has received FAA clearance to resume Alpha rocket launches after a mishap on April 29, 2025, during Alpha Flight 6. The investigation revealed that excessive heat from Plume Induced Flow Separation caused structural issues, leading to the mishap. Corrective actions, including increasing thermal protection and adjusting flight angles, have been implemented, and Firefly is now planning for Alpha Flight 7.