Fold Holdings AI Stock Analysis
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Fold Holdings (FLD) AI Stock Analysis
Fold Holdings
(NASDAQ:FLD)
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (large losses and ongoing cash burn) and a bearish technical setup (price below key moving averages with negative MACD). These are only partly offset by a better tone on operational execution from the latest earnings call (product adoption, cost reductions, and improving EBITDA trend) and a valuation profile that is difficult to judge due to negative earnings and no stated dividend yield.
Fold Holdings (FLD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $22.07M
- Dividend Yield
- ―
- Average Volume (3M)
- 289.60K
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- -0.3
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.78
- Revenue Growth
- 10.20%
- EPS Growth
- 6.81%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 43
- Sector
- Financial
- Sector Strength
- 68
- Industry
- Financial - Capital Markets
Fold Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Fold Holdings, Inc., a bitcoin financial services company, provides access to bitcoin through a suite of consumer financial products in the United States. Its financial services platform allows consumers to accumulate, save, and use bitcoin to accomp...
How the Company Makes Money
Fold generates revenue primarily through economics tied to payment card usage and associated reward programs. When customers use Fold-branded card products for purchases, the company can earn a share of transaction-related fees (interchange and/or pr...
Fold Holdings Earnings Call Summary
The call was strongly focused on execution and the early adoption of new deposit, balance, gift card, and credit card products. Management highlighted 270% growth in custody and trading revenue, thousands of new account activations, lower operating expenses, improving adjusted EBITDA during 2026, and expanded capital flexibility. These positives were offset by a 44% year-over-year revenue decline, lower transaction volumes, a $2.6 million GAAP net loss, continued negative adjusted EBITDA, soft retail Bitcoin engagement, and the fact that credit card financing had not yet been secured. Overall, the number and significance of the stated strategic and operational positives outweighed the challenges.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
For Q4 of 26, Fold expects increased revenue contributions from both the Fold credit card and Fold Reserve; its Q4 plan is to “Grow balances, increase utilization of the products we have, scale distribution into the holidays, and keep improving efficiency,” while continuing to add channels “through year end and into the holidays.” Fold hopes to secure a credit facility “shortly,” which would allow it to issue many more cards to eligible customers, extend higher limits to qualified customers, and put real marketing behind the card, and it expects the preapproval flow to “significantly increase throughput and con-- conversion at the top of the funnel.” The company expects new digital partnerships to be announced “in the coming quarters,” expects additional revenue diversification and margin expansion, and plans to “move forward towards positive cash flows”; its new equity facility allows it to raise “up to $25 million” in equity.
Fold Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials remain the biggest weakness: TTM revenue declined (~6.9%), profitability is very weak (TTM net loss ~$73.0M) with heavily negative EBIT/EBITDA margins, and cash generation is poor (TTM operating cash flow about -$23.2M; free cash flow about -$24.2M). The balance sheet is improved (positive equity ~$31.3M and moderate leverage), but negative returns and historical volatility elevate risk.
Income Statement
18Very NegativeBalance Sheet
46NeutralCash Flow
22Negative| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 28.21M | 31.79M | 0 | 21.53M | 28.88M | 0 |
| Gross Profit | 27.46M | 14.10M | 0 | -3.35M | -6.86M | 0 |
| EBITDA | -66.39M | -63.32M | -2.63M | -3.50M | -10.15M | 0 |
| Net Income | -72.96M | -69.59M | -1.87M | 4.44M | -11.97M | -120.00K |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 52.49M | 153.47M | 125.66M | 165.96M | 12.42M | 225.17M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 28.39M | 7.65M | 18.33M | 29.84K | 8.36M | 1.23M |
| Total Debt | 12.45M | 78.68M | 5.74M | 2.02M | 0 | 0 |
| Total Liabilities | 21.24M | 90.48M | 60.54M | 170.27M | 13.68M | 8.95M |
| Stockholders Equity | 31.25M | 62.99M | -8.32M | -4.31M | -1.27M | 216.22M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -24.47M | -16.12M | -3.43M | -5.08M | -1.82M | -712.14K |
| Operating Cash Flow | -23.21M | -16.12M | -3.43M | -5.08M | -1.49M | -712.14K |
| Investing Cash Flow | 50.47M | -8.97M | 117.32M | 99.81M | -4.48M | -266.64M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -5.48M | 14.41M | -113.01M | -94.77M | 6.98M | 268.82M |
Fold Holdings Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FLD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.40 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.50, below the 50-day MA of 0.53, and below the 200-day MA of 0.90, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 28.64 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.96 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FLD.
Fold Holdings Risk Analysis
Fold Holdings disclosed 100 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Fold Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Latest Risks Added
1 New RiskFold Holdings Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
CYPH55Neutral
BTCS48Neutral- FLD45Neutral
SUIG44Neutral
ARBK25Underperform
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sector * | 68Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
| CYPH | 55Neutral | $229.54M | 3.39 | -0.57% | ― | ― | ― |
| BTCS | 48Neutral | $49.75M | -0.38 | -104.28% | ― | 120.96% | -120.89% |
| FLD | 45Neutral | $24.12M | -0.26 | -35.62% | ― | 10.20% | 6.81% |
| SUIG | 44Neutral | $69.07M | -0.27 | -216.48% | ― | -3240.30% | -514.07% |
| ARBK | 25Underperform | $19.61M | 0.09 | -40.41% | ― | ― | ― |
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLD | Fold Holdings, Inc. | 0.40 | -2.74 | -87.20% | |
| BTCS | Btcs Inc | 0.94 | -1.75 | -65.06% | |
| CYPH | Cypherpunk Technologies Inc. | 2.00 | 0.24 | 13.64% | |
| SUIG | Sui Group Holdings Limited | 0.91 | -1.25 | -57.78% | |
| ARBK | Argo Blockchain Plc Adr | 1.34 | -58.08 | -97.74% | |
| USDE | Stablecoinx Inc. Class A | 6.57 | -5.23 | -44.32% |
Fold Holdings Corporate Events
Fold Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Results and Improved Operating Performance
NeutralFold reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $4.2 million, operating expenses of $10.5 million, a $2.6 million net loss and a $4.5 million adjusted EBITDA loss for the quarter ended September 30; operating expenses fell 21% year over year and the adju...
Fold Holdings Shareholders Approve Reverse Stock Split Flexibility
NeutralOn October 22, 2026, Fold Holdings, Inc. held a Special Meeting of Stockholders to vote on key changes to its capital structure. Stockholders were asked to approve a reverse stock split of the company’s common stock within a range of 1-for-2 to 1-for...
Fold Holdings Establishes Flexible $25 Million Equity Program
PositiveOn September 4, 2026, Fold Holdings, Inc. signed a Common Stock Purchase Agreement and a related Registration Rights Agreement with Roth Principal Investments, LLC, giving Fold the optional right to sell up to $25 million of newly issued common share...
Fold Holdings Ends Equity Purchase Facility Agreement
NeutralOn August 27, 2026, Fold Holdings, Inc. notified its investor of the termination of a June 16, 2025 equity purchase facility that had allowed the company to sell up to $250 million in newly issued common shares at its discretion. The termination, eff...
Fold Holdings Strengthens Balance Sheet Amid Q2 Losses
PositiveFold Holdings reported second-quarter 2026 results on August 11, 2026, posting $6.1 million in revenue and a net loss of $9.7 million, with adjusted EBITDA loss of $5.5 million and bitcoin investment treasury holdings of 194 BTC as of June 30. The co...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Nov 11, 2026