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Fold Holdings
(NASDAQ:FLD)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$0.57
▲(0.18% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/19/26
FLD scores below average primarily due to weak financial performance—large losses, declining revenue, and sustained negative operating/free cash flow—despite a somewhat improved balance sheet. Technicals add modest support with improving short-term momentum, but the longer-term trend remains negative. The earnings call shows credible strategic progress and clearer monetization plans, yet near-term profitability deterioration and scaling/financing constraints limit the score, while valuation remains difficult to justify given losses and no dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
De-risked balance sheet
Removing secured debt lowers fixed financing costs and reduces balance-sheet risk, while the additional unrestricted capital provides more flexibility to fund product development and operations. This creates a stronger base for scaling than the prior debt structure.
Negative Factors
Persistent losses
The company has not yet converted its very high gross margin into operating profitability, making the current business model dependent on future scale and execution. Persistent losses reduce financial resilience and can constrain investment in growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
De-risked balance sheet
Removing secured debt lowers fixed financing costs and reduces balance-sheet risk, while the additional unrestricted capital provides more flexibility to fund product development and operations. This creates a stronger base for scaling than the prior debt structure.
Read all positive factors
Fold Holdings (FLD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$31.95M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)517.70K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.64
Revenue Growth84.83%
EPS Growth12.54%
CountryUS
Employees43
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Capital Markets
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.80
Shares Outstanding54,868,427
10 Day Avg. Volume177,883
30 Day Avg. Volume517,703
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.75
Price to Sales (P/S)3.47
P/FCF Ratio-6.84
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$1.60Price Target Upside180.70% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-1
Revenue Forecast (FY)$34.41M
Fold Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Fold Holdings, Inc., a bitcoin financial services company, provides access to bitcoin through a suite of consumer financial products in the United States. Its financial services platform allows consumers to accumulate, save, and use bitcoin to acc...
How the Company Makes Money
Fold generates revenue primarily through economics tied to payment card usage and associated reward programs. When customers use Fold-branded card products for purchases, the company can earn a share of transaction-related fees (interchange and/or...
Fold Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 11, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed picture: near-term financial results were weak (Q2 revenue down 26%, a $9.7M net loss, and deeper negative adjusted EBITDA), reflecting industry-wide bitcoin-price headwinds and higher payroll/contractor costs. Offsetting those negatives were multiple strategic advances—banking partnership with Lead Bank, a proprietary core ledger, elimination of secured debt and improved liquidity, promising early credit card metrics (2k+ early users, ~80k waitlist, 4x transactions per user), and strong distribution traction via channels like TikTok Shop. Management framed the company as transitioning from a transaction-dependent model to a broader, assets-and-deposits-enabled financial platform with recurring revenue potential. Given the significant operational and strategic progress but meaningful current financial weakness, the overall tone is balanced between progress and near-term challenges.Positive Updates
Revenue and Q2 Topline
Generated Q2 revenue of $6.1 million; management framed this as part of a transition toward more recurring, asset-yield driven revenue rather than a pure transaction business.
Negative Updates
Significant Year-over-Year Revenue Decline
Q2 revenue declined 26% year-over-year, which management attributed primarily to lower bitcoin prices and industry-wide depressed retail engagement.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Q2 Topline
Generated Q2 revenue of $6.1 million; management framed this as part of a transition toward more recurring, asset-yield driven revenue rather than a pure transaction business.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided that over the next few months it will scale its credit-card and banking launches (summer/Q3), move from a transaction‑dependent model to one that earns yield on customer assets to drive “higher and more recurring revenues, better margins, and less dependence on transactional volume,” and continue cost cuts (eliminating vendors/contractors and lowering operational expenses). Key metrics cited: Q2 revenue $6.1M (‑26% YoY), GAAP operating expenses $13.9M (‑4% YoY), net loss $9.7M vs. prior‑year net income $13.4M, adjusted EBITDA ‑$5.5M vs. ‑$4.7M; credit card early access >2,000 customers with transactions per user up 4x and profitable per‑swipe economics, a waitlist >80,000 and “tens of thousands” of MTUs, and the company is currently self‑financing receivables but plans to add strategic financing partners alongside the wider rollout. They also de‑risked the balance sheet by eliminating all secured debt and by repaying $20M of bitcoin‑backed debt (reducing monthly interest expense by ~$145k and preserving ~$25M of unrestricted capital).Fold Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
46
Neutral
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 28.21M | 31.79M | 0.00 | 21.53M | 28.88M | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | 27.46M | 14.10M | 0.00 | -3.35M | -6.86M | 0.00 |
| EBITDA | -66.19M | -63.32M | -2.89M | -3.70M | -10.08M | 636.00 |
| Net Income | -72.96M | -69.59M | -1.87M | 4.44M | -11.97M | -120.00K |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 52.49M | 153.47M | 52.22M | 165.96M | 12.42M | 225.17M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 28.39M | 7.65M | 18.33M | 29.84K | 8.36M | 1.23M |
| Total Debt | 12.45M | 78.68M | 5.74M | 2.02M | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 21.24M | 90.48M | 60.54M | 170.27M | 13.68M | 8.95M |
| Stockholders Equity | 31.25M | 62.99M | -8.32M | -4.31M | -1.27M | 216.22M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -24.47M | -16.12M | -3.43M | -5.08M | -1.82M | -712.14K |
| Operating Cash Flow | -23.21M | -16.12M | -3.43M | -5.08M | -1.49M | -712.14K |
| Investing Cash Flow | 50.47M | -8.97M | 117.32M | 99.81M | -4.48M | -266.64M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -5.48M | 14.41M | -113.01M | -94.77M | 6.98M | 268.82M |
Fold Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
0.57
Price Trends
0.49
Positive
0.66
Negative
1.25
Negative
Market Momentum
0.02
Negative
51.96
Neutral
38.46
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FLD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.57 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.53, above the 50-day MA of 0.49, and below the 200-day MA of 1.25, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.46 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FLD.
Fold Holdings Risk Analysis
Fold Holdings disclosed 100 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Fold Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Our common stock may be delisted from The Nasdaq Capital Market if we are unable to regain compliance with Nasdaq's minimum bid price requirement. Q2, 2026
Fold Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
57 Neutral | $401.96M | 6.12 | -0.57% | ― | ― | ― | |
51 Neutral | $118.28M | -0.31 | -187.47% | 5.68% | -2684.22% | -2055.69% | |
50 Neutral | $86.58M | -0.63 | -104.28% | 3.19% | 120.96% | -120.89% | |
49 Neutral | $31.95M | -0.38 | -129.54% | ― | 84.83% | 12.54% | |
41 Neutral | $38.05M | -0.94 | 21.74% | ― | ― | ― |
* Financial Sector Average
FLD
Fold Holdings
0.54
-3.14
-85.43%
BTCS
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-66.30%
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ARBK
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2.34
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USDE
StablecoinX Inc Class A
17.25
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32.69%
Fold Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Fold Holdings Establishes Flexible $25 Million Equity Program
Positive
Sep 8, 2026
On September 4, 2026, Fold Holdings, Inc. signed a Common Stock Purchase Agreement and a related Registration Rights Agreement with Roth Principal Investments, LLC, giving Fold the optional right to sell up to $25 million of newly issued common sh...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Fold Holdings Ends Equity Purchase Facility Agreement
Neutral
Sep 2, 2026
On August 27, 2026, Fold Holdings, Inc. notified its investor of the termination of a June 16, 2025 equity purchase facility that had allowed the company to sell up to $250 million in newly issued common shares at its discretion. The termination, ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Fold Holdings Strengthens Balance Sheet Amid Q2 Losses
Positive
Aug 11, 2026
Fold Holdings reported second-quarter 2026 results on August 11, 2026, posting $6.1 million in revenue and a net loss of $9.7 million, with adjusted EBITDA loss of $5.5 million and bitcoin investment treasury holdings of 194 BTC as of June 30. The...
Business Operations and Strategy
Fold Holdings Partners with Lead Bank to Expand Services
Positive
Aug 6, 2026
On August 6, 2026, Fold Holdings, Inc. announced that it had entered into a partnership with Lead Bank, formalizing a collaboration intended to align Fold’s financial technology capabilities with a licensed banking institution. This move und...
Delistings and Listing ChangesRegulatory Filings and ComplianceStock Split
Fold Holdings Faces Nasdaq Minimum Bid Price Deficiency
Negative
Jul 18, 2026
On July 14, 2026, Fold Holdings, Inc. received notice from Nasdaq that its common stock had closed below the $1.00 minimum bid price requirement for 30 consecutive business days, triggering a deficiency under Nasdaq Listing Rule 5550(a)(2) but not...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.