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Comfort Systems
(NYSE:FIX)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$1,426.00
▼(-8.70% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/23/26
The score is anchored by very strong financial performance and an upbeat earnings outlook with record backlog, strong margins, and substantial cash generation. These positives are tempered by sharply bearish technical signals (deeply oversold and below key moving averages) and a relatively expensive valuation (high P/E with a low dividend yield).
Positive Factors
Record backlog and demand visibility
The record backlog provides substantial forward revenue visibility and supports continued activity across upcoming quarters. Its broad year-over-year expansion indicates strong demand for the company’s mechanical, electrical, and modular capabilities, helping sustain growth and utilization.
Negative Factors
Data-center and technology concentration
The sharper concentration in technology and data-center-related activity increases sensitivity to customer programs, local approvals, and regulatory or political intervention. A change in this project pipeline could affect growth, backlog conversion, and capacity utilization.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Record backlog and demand visibility
The record backlog provides substantial forward revenue visibility and supports continued activity across upcoming quarters. Its broad year-over-year expansion indicates strong demand for the company’s mechanical, electrical, and modular capabilities, helping sustain growth and utilization.
Read all positive factors
Comfort Systems Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Highlights how much each business unit contributes to total sales, pointing to where the company’s growth and customer concentration live. Shifts in segment revenue can reveal strategic wins or vulnerabilities tied to specific markets, geographies, or types of commercial customers.
Highlights how much each business unit contributes to total sales, pointing to where the company’s growth and customer concentration live. Shifts in segment revenue can reveal strategic wins or vulnerabilities tied to specific markets, geographies, or types of commercial customers.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyComfort Systems (FIX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$49.17B
Dividend Yield0.21%
Average Volume (3M)352.45K
Price to Earnings (P/E)34.4
Beta (1Y)1.78
Revenue Growth46.11%
EPS Growth108.71%
CountryUS
Employees22,700
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryEngineering & Construction
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)46.37
Shares Outstanding35,194,330
10 Day Avg. Volume426,180
30 Day Avg. Volume352,453
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.33
Price to Book (P/B)13.47
Price to Sales (P/S)3.62
P/FCF Ratio31.98
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.14
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.49
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit17.54
Enterprise Value/Ebitda24.83
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$2,162.14Price Target Upside38.42% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)49.06
Revenue Forecast (FY)$12.99B
Comfort Systems Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Comfort Systems USA, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides mechanical and electrical installation, renovation, maintenance, repair, and replacement services for the mechanical and electrical services industry in the United States. The com...
How the Company Makes Money
Comfort Systems primarily makes money by delivering mechanical contracting projects and ongoing service work for commercial and industrial customers. Its key revenue streams generally include: (1) Installation and construction/project work: revenu...
Comfort Systems Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 25, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive: record revenue, materially higher EPS, large margin expansion, robust backlog growth, and exceptional cash generation drove the message. Management highlighted major wins in modular and electrical businesses, closed an accretive acquisition, raised the dividend, and plans significant modular capacity expansion with attractive reported returns. Noted risks include higher absolute SG&A investment, a portion of Q2 cash driven by advanced customer payments, concentration in data center/technology exposure (with potential local moratorium/regulatory risks), and sizable ongoing capital commitments. On balance, the positive operational and financial developments substantially outweigh the identified risks.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue and Strong EPS
Revenue of $3.3 billion in Q2 2026 (first quarter above $3.0B), up $1.1 billion YoY (approximately +50%); net income $442 million and EPS $12.53, up 92% YoY.
Negative Updates
Higher Absolute SG&A Spend
SG&A increased to $287 million from $210 million YoY (up $77 million, ~36.7% increase) as the company invests in people and innovation, even though SG&A as a percentage of revenue declined to 8.8% from 9.7%.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue and Strong EPS
Revenue of $3.3 billion in Q2 2026 (first quarter above $3.0B), up $1.1 billion YoY (approximately +50%); net income $442 million and EPS $12.53, up 92% YoY.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance and outlook emphasized continued strong performance: they expect full‑year 2026 same‑store revenue growth in the mid‑ to high‑30% range, a full‑year effective tax rate of about 23%, and capital expenditures of roughly 5% of revenue; they also said gross profit margins should remain in the strong ranges seen recently (Q2 gross profit $844M, 25.9%). Key metrics and expectations entering Q3 included record backlog of $14.1B (up 73% YoY, same‑store backlog +69% vs. last year), Q2 revenue of $3.3B (+44% same‑store), EPS $12.53 (+92% YoY), Q2 EBITDA $600M (trailing 12‑month EBITDA ≈ $2B), free cash flow $999M and net cash >$1.8B. They highlighted operational details and allocation priorities: modular bookings ≈ $510M in Q2, modular capacity >3.5M sq ft (target >4M by year‑end and ~5M by late‑summer 2027), Electrical revenue +81% and Mechanical +40% with segment margins of 26.4% and 25.6% respectively, SG&A 8.8% of revenue, operating income $558M (17.1% margin), service = 10% of revenue (+7%), Hunt Electric adding ~ $250M annualized revenue, and a quarterly dividend up $0.10 to $0.90 while continuing to pursue CapEx, acquisitions and opportunistic buybacks.Comfort Systems Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
88
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
84
Very Positive
Cash Flow
90
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 12.54B | 9.10B | 7.03B | 5.21B | 4.14B | 3.07B |
| Gross Profit | 3.21B | 2.20B | 1.48B | 990.51M | 741.61M | 563.21M |
| EBITDA | 2.27B | 1.44B | 817.10M | 478.63M | 329.30M | 264.20M |
| Net Income | 1.63B | 1.02B | 522.43M | 323.40M | 245.95M | 143.35M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 9.81B | 6.44B | 4.71B | 3.31B | 2.60B | 2.21B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.16B | 981.90M | 549.94M | 205.15M | 57.21M | 58.78M |
| Total Debt | 374.43M | 785.95M | 308.60M | 256.77M | 389.14M | 514.78M |
| Total Liabilities | 6.47B | 3.99B | 3.01B | 2.03B | 1.60B | 1.40B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.34B | 2.45B | 1.70B | 1.28B | 999.92M | 805.67M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.44B | 1.03B | 737.99M | 544.73M | 253.17M | 157.82M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.01B | 1.19B | 849.06M | 639.57M | 301.53M | 180.15M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.02B | -467.27M | -343.51M | -193.01M | -97.18M | -246.72M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -689.57M | -287.13M | -160.76M | -298.62M | -205.91M | 70.45M |
Comfort Systems Technical Analysis
Negative
1561.96
Price Trends
1619.51
Negative
1708.85
Negative
1597.49
Negative
Market Momentum
-73.86
Positive
25.32
Positive
4.56
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FIX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1561.96 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1600.63, below the 50-day MA of 1619.51, and below the 200-day MA of 1597.49, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -73.86 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 25.32 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.56 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FIX.
Comfort Systems Risk Analysis
Comfort Systems disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Comfort Systems reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Comfort Systems Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $30.84B | 21.77 | 38.42% | 0.23% | 18.92% | 33.51% | |
76 Outperform | $9.53B | 20.73 | 44.00% | ― | 22.66% | 83.09% | |
73 Outperform | $49.17B | 34.43 | 55.24% | 0.21% | 46.11% | 108.71% | |
69 Neutral | $17.44B | -60.01 | 10.11% | ― | 14.09% | -293.77% | |
66 Neutral | $4.28B | 25.89 | 24.17% | ― | 16.06% | 121.28% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
54 Neutral | $1.05B | 37.43 | 2.49% | ― | 8.89% | -54.65% |
* Industrials Sector Average
FIX
Comfort Systems
1,279.37
456.06
55.39%
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16.07%
MYRG
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APG
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Comfort Systems Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Comfort Systems announces CFO retirement and succession plan
Positive
Oct 22, 2026
On October 16, 2026, Comfort Systems USA announced that longtime Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Bill George will retire following the filing of the company’s Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2026, after a 30-ye...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Comfort Systems USA Reports Surging Results and Backlog Growth
Positive
Oct 22, 2026
Comfort Systems USA, Inc. is a leading national provider of commercial, industrial and institutional HVAC, ventilation and electrical contracting services, operating 211 locations in 155 U.S. cities. Its broad footprint in nonresidential construct...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Comfort Systems Highlights Strong 2026 Growth and Backlog
Positive
Aug 3, 2026
On August 3, 2026, Comfort Systems USA posted a detailed investor presentation outlining year‑to‑date 2026 performance and strategic positioning, underscoring strong growth in revenue, earnings and adjusted EBITDA. The materials showed...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Comfort Systems USA Posts Record Q2 2026 Results
Positive
Jul 23, 2026
Comfort Systems USA reported record second-quarter 2026 results on July 23, 2026, highlighted by a sharp jump in profitability and cash generation. Net income for the quarter rose to $441.6 million from $230.8 million a year earlier, with diluted ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.