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Comfort Systems
(NYSE:FIX)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$1,283.00
▼(-17.86% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/24/26
Overall score reflects strong financial performance and a very upbeat earnings outlook with record backlog and continued growth guidance, partially offset by very weak technical momentum (deep downtrend) and only moderate valuation support given a ~25 P/E and minimal dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Record Backlog and Demand
The record backlog and extended 18–24 month duration provide substantial revenue visibility beyond the current quarter. Strong technology-sector bookings and continued demand support future utilization, helping the company plan labor and capacity while reducing dependence on short-cycle project wins.
Negative Factors
Labor Availability Constraint
Labor availability could limit how quickly Comfort Systems converts its sizable backlog into revenue and earnings. Meeting the 2027 growth outlook requires continued hiring, training, mobility, and workforce execution, creating a structural capacity constraint even when customer demand remains strong.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Record Backlog and Demand
The record backlog and extended 18–24 month duration provide substantial revenue visibility beyond the current quarter. Strong technology-sector bookings and continued demand support future utilization, helping the company plan labor and capacity while reducing dependence on short-cycle project wins.
Read all positive factors
Comfort Systems Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Highlights how much each business unit contributes to total sales, pointing to where the company’s growth and customer concentration live. Shifts in segment revenue can reveal strategic wins or vulnerabilities tied to specific markets, geographies, or types of commercial customers.
Highlights how much each business unit contributes to total sales, pointing to where the company’s growth and customer concentration live. Shifts in segment revenue can reveal strategic wins or vulnerabilities tied to specific markets, geographies, or types of commercial customers.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyComfort Systems (FIX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$40.61B
Dividend Yield0.26%
Average Volume (3M)414.82K
Price to Earnings (P/E)25.0
Beta (1Y)1.82
Revenue Growth50.70%
EPS Growth95.97%
CountryUS
Employees22,700
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryEngineering & Construction
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)46.37
Shares Outstanding34,985,905
10 Day Avg. Volume598,739
30 Day Avg. Volume414,816
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.33
Price to Book (P/B)13.47
Price to Sales (P/S)3.62
P/FCF Ratio31.98
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.39
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.49
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit17.54
Enterprise Value/Ebitda24.83
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$2,105.83Price Target Upside34.82% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)49.06
Revenue Forecast (FY)$12.99B
Comfort Systems Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Comfort Systems USA, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides mechanical and electrical installation, renovation, maintenance, repair, and replacement services for the mechanical and electrical services industry in the United States. The com...
How the Company Makes Money
Comfort Systems primarily makes money by delivering mechanical contracting projects and ongoing service work for commercial and industrial customers. Its key revenue streams generally include: (1) Installation and construction/project work: revenu...
Comfort Systems Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 22, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 25, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive. Management reported record revenue, earnings, EBITDA, backlog, and demand, along with substantial growth in electrical, mechanical, technology, modular, and service activities. The company also raised its dividend, repurchased shares, expanded capacity, and expressed confidence in its 2026-2027 outlook. The principal challenges were electrical margin pressure, a cost mix with more equipment and materials, early-stage project economics, labor availability, and the need for additional diligence before adding programmatic modular customers, but management characterized these issues as manageable and maintained a confident outlook.Positive Updates
Record Earnings and Revenue Growth
Third-quarter revenue was $3.8 billion, an increase of $1.3 billion or 54% compared to last year. Earnings were $13.91 per share, $5.66 higher than the same quarter last year, and net income was $489 million versus $292 million in the prior-year quarter.
Negative Updates
Electrical Segment Margin Decline
Despite electrical segment revenue growth of over 80%, electrical margins declined to 24.3% from 26.2% in the third quarter of 2025. Management said the prior-year quarter benefited from discrete gains, including a customer emerging from bankruptcy, which improved electrical margins by approximately 1.8%; excluding that effect, margins were roughly flat.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Earnings and Revenue Growth
Third-quarter revenue was $3.8 billion, an increase of $1.3 billion or 54% compared to last year. Earnings were $13.91 per share, $5.66 higher than the same quarter last year, and net income was $489 million versus $292 million in the prior-year quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management expects continuing growth and strong results for the remainder of 2026 and into 2027, with full year same store revenue in the mid-40% range and full year 2027 same store revenue growth in the mid-20% range; 2027 gross profit margins are likely to continue in the strong ranges achieved in average over recent quarters, the tax rate is expected to continue to be around 23% for the rest of 2026 and in 2027, full year CapEx is estimated at 4% to 5% of revenue with CapEx likely to remain at elevated levels during the first half of 27, modular capacity is expected to be over 4 million square feet by the end of 26 and approximately 6 million square feet by the end of 27, and backlog is expected to represent roughly 18 to 24 months.Comfort Systems Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
88
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
84
Very Positive
Cash Flow
90
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 12.54B | 9.10B | 7.03B | 5.21B | 4.14B | 3.07B |
| Gross Profit | 3.21B | 2.20B | 1.48B | 990.51M | 741.61M | 563.21M |
| EBITDA | 2.27B | 1.44B | 817.10M | 478.63M | 329.30M | 264.20M |
| Net Income | 1.63B | 1.02B | 522.43M | 323.40M | 245.95M | 143.35M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 9.81B | 6.44B | 4.71B | 3.31B | 2.60B | 2.21B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.16B | 981.90M | 549.94M | 205.15M | 57.21M | 58.78M |
| Total Debt | 374.43M | 785.95M | 308.60M | 256.77M | 389.14M | 514.78M |
| Total Liabilities | 6.47B | 3.99B | 3.01B | 2.03B | 1.60B | 1.40B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.34B | 2.45B | 1.70B | 1.28B | 999.92M | 805.67M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.44B | 1.03B | 737.99M | 544.73M | 253.17M | 157.82M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.01B | 1.19B | 849.06M | 639.57M | 301.53M | 180.15M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.02B | -467.27M | -343.51M | -193.01M | -97.18M | -246.72M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -689.57M | -287.13M | -160.76M | -298.62M | -205.91M | 70.45M |
Comfort Systems Technical Analysis
Negative
1561.96
Price Trends
1608.17
Negative
1701.63
Negative
1598.13
Negative
Market Momentum
-94.75
Positive
21.05
Positive
6.36
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FIX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1561.96 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1575.73, below the 50-day MA of 1608.17, and below the 200-day MA of 1598.13, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -94.75 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 21.05 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.36 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FIX.
Comfort Systems Risk Analysis
Comfort Systems disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Comfort Systems reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Comfort Systems Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $28.57B | 20.16 | 38.42% | 0.25% | 18.92% | 33.51% | |
71 Outperform | $40.61B | 25.03 | 55.24% | 0.26% | 50.70% | 95.97% | |
69 Neutral | $8.60B | 18.71 | 44.00% | ― | 22.66% | 83.09% | |
69 Neutral | $17.21B | -58.88 | 10.11% | ― | 14.09% | -293.77% | |
66 Neutral | $3.96B | 23.94 | 24.17% | ― | 16.06% | 121.28% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
54 Neutral | $983.32M | 34.96 | 2.49% | ― | 8.89% | -54.65% |
* Industrials Sector Average
FIX
Comfort Systems
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19.13%
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Comfort Systems Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Comfort Systems announces CFO retirement and succession plan
Positive
Oct 22, 2026
On October 16, 2026, Comfort Systems USA announced that longtime Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Bill George will retire following the filing of the company’s Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2026, after a 30-ye...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Comfort Systems USA Reports Surging Results and Backlog Growth
Positive
Oct 22, 2026
Comfort Systems USA, Inc. is a leading national provider of commercial, industrial and institutional HVAC, ventilation and electrical contracting services, operating 211 locations in 155 U.S. cities. Its broad footprint in nonresidential construct...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Comfort Systems Highlights Strong 2026 Growth and Backlog
Positive
Aug 3, 2026
On August 3, 2026, Comfort Systems USA posted a detailed investor presentation outlining year‑to‑date 2026 performance and strategic positioning, underscoring strong growth in revenue, earnings and adjusted EBITDA. The materials showed...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.