Leonardo SpA (FINMY) AI Stock Analysis

Leonardo SpA

(Other OTC:FINMY)

Select Model

Rating:74Outperform

Price Target:$32.00▲(10.76% Upside)

Action:upgraded

Date:08/04/26

The score is driven primarily by strengthening financial performance and a clearly upbeat earnings outlook with upgraded guidance and strong order momentum. Technical indicators also support the setup, though near-term momentum looks stretched. The main restraint is valuation (higher P/E and modest yield), alongside execution and integration/cash-flow risks noted on the call.

Positive Factors

Backlog and order momentumStrong order intake, a large backlog and book-to-bill above one provide substantial revenue visibility beyond the current reporting period. This supports capacity planning, reinforces Leonardo’s position in major defence programs, and creates a durable foundation for growth over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Cash conversion remains moderateCash generation is improving, but free cash flow still trails reported earnings and first-half cash flow remained negative. This can constrain internally funded investment and debt reduction, while working-capital needs and program spending may continue to create volatility in cash conversion.

Leonardo SpA (FINMY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $66.12B
Dividend Yield: 1.23%
Average Volume (3M): 44.30K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 26.5
Beta (1Y): 0.67
Revenue Growth: 18.14%
EPS Growth: 15.02%
Country: US
Employees: 62,762
Sector: Industrials
Sector Strength: 63
Industry: Aerospace & Defense

Leonardo SpA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Leonardo S.p.A. functions as a leading industrial and technology conglomerate, with its core activities encompassing the production of rotary-wing aircraft, defense electronics and security systems, aeronautics, and advanced space technologies. The c...

How the Company Makes Money

Leonardo primarily makes money by selling high-value aerospace and defence products and by providing long-term services tied to those products. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Platform and system sales: revenue from contracts to deliver he...

Leonardo SpA Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026(Q2-2026)|% Change Since:-6.50%|Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call presented a materially improved financial and commercial picture: strong order intake (+40% y/y), revenue growth (+10% y/y), higher profitability (ROS to 7.6%, Q2 EBITA +30%), upgraded full‑year guidance (orders, EBITA, FOCF) and active M&A/portfolio expansion (Iveco IDV, Raft). At the same time, management was candid about near‑term cash impacts (NH90 settlement, higher taxes), integration and non‑recurring costs, an elevated net debt post‑acquisition, lingering losses in Aerostructures and regulatory/timing risks around large strategic transactions. Overall, positives (commercial momentum, margin improvement, guidance upgrades) outweigh the negatives, though execution and integration risks remain important to monitor.

Positive Updates

Strong Order Momentum

Orders up ~40% year‑over‑year in H1 2026 (H1 orders ~EUR 16bn); total backlog ~EUR 59bn (including Iveco). Book‑to‑bill improved to 1.6 (vs 1.3 in 2025). Guidance for full‑year orders upgraded from ~EUR 26bn to EUR 28.2bn.

Negative Updates

Free Operating Cash Flow Still Negative in H1

Although FOCF improved substantially (c.+45% y/y), it remains negative in the first half (typical seasonality) and was impacted by a EUR 113m cash outflow related to the NH90 litigation settlement and ~EUR 100m higher taxes as prior tax losses have been exhausted.

Company Guidance

Leonardo upgraded its 2026 guidance: orders raised to €28.2bn (from prior €26/25bn targets), revenues confirmed at €22.1bn, EBITA increased to €2.21bn (implying a double‑digit EBITA margin target for 2026), free operating cash flow guidance lifted to €1.37bn and net debt pro forma targeted to fall to €2.2bn. This outlook incorporates the 9‑month consolidation of Iveco Defence Vehicles (IDV) (IDV 9‑month revenue target ~€1.1bn, orders ~€1.2bn; H1 IDV revenues ~€0.4bn, H1 IDV orders ~€0.6–0.7bn, IDV backlog ~€6bn), and follows a strong H1 (orders ~€16bn; backlog ~€59bn; book‑to‑bill 1.6; EBITA H1 ~€0.73bn; ROS 7.6%, +110bps; adjusted net income +74%; FOCF up ~40–45% YoY), which underpins the upgraded guidance.

Leonardo SpA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals are improving with strong multi-year revenue expansion, better operating profitability versus 2020–2021, and a declining debt-to-equity ratio (below 0.5 in 2025). The main offsets are 2025 gross margin compression and only moderate cash conversion, with free cash flow materially below net income.

Income Statement

78Positive

Balance Sheet

71Positive

Cash Flow

67Positive

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	20.71B	19.50B	17.76B	15.29B	14.71B	14.13B
Gross Profit	-3.58B	2.26B	2.02B	1.65B	1.22B	1.05B
EBITDA	-3.07B	1.85B	2.25B	1.54B	1.65B	1.38B
Net Income	1.13B	1.22B	1.07B	658.00M	927.00M	586.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	37.05B	34.51B	33.67B	30.69B	28.58B	28.38B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	985.59M	3.24B	2.56B	2.41B	1.51B	2.48B
Total Debt	4.51B	4.49B	4.70B	4.93B	4.61B	5.67B
Total Liabilities	25.73B	23.77B	23.47B	22.13B	20.88B	21.54B
Stockholders Equity	9.67B	9.56B	8.99B	7.80B	7.18B	6.43B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.09B	734.00M	646.00M	404.00M	523.00M	190.00M
Operating Cash Flow	2.25B	1.91B	1.54B	1.19B	1.28B	805.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-2.76B	-581.12M	-753.00M	-262.00M	-924.00M	-604.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-403.84M	-586.89M	-678.00M	-12.00M	-1.40B	30.00M

Leonardo SpA Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive

Last Price28.89

Price Trends

50DMA28.44Positive

100DMA29.49Negative

200DMA31.05Negative

Market Momentum

MACD0.03Negative

RSI60.57Neutral

STOCH84.40Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FINMY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 28.89 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.17, above the 50-day MA of 28.44, and below the 200-day MA of 31.05, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.40 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FINMY.

Leonardo SpA Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

FINMY against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LMT	79Outperform	$147.14B	22.53	78.85%	2.17%	7.86%	57.22%
NOC	77Outperform	$79.21B	17.55	25.70%	1.71%	6.51%	14.02%
LHX	75Outperform	$51.69B	25.75	10.17%	1.78%	7.33%	15.31%
EMBJ	74Outperform	$13.24B	30.84	12.81%	1.29%	19.91%	20.26%
FINMY	74Outperform	$33.36B	26.54	11.71%	1.23%	18.14%	15.02%
RTX	71Outperform	$269.62B	32.07	12.77%	1.41%	11.63%	26.50%
Sector *	63Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

FINMY and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
FINMY	Leonardo SpA	28.89	-0.91	-3.06%
EMBJ	Embraer S.A. Adr	73.40	9.40	14.69%
LHX	L3harris Technologies	277.61	-6.27	-2.21%
LMT	Lockheed Martin	636.95	161.30	33.91%
NOC	Northrop Grumman Corp.	557.54	-8.64	-1.53%
RTX	Rtx Corporation	199.80	25.35	14.53%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 04, 2026

Leonardo SpA AI Stock Analysis