Esquire Financial Holdings (ESQ) Risk Analysis

Our accounting policies and methods are fundamental to how we record and report our financial condition and results of operations. Our management must exercise judgment in selecting and applying many of these accounting policies and methods so they comply with GAAP and reflect management's judgment of the most appropriate manner to report our financial condition and results. In some cases, management must select the accounting policy or method to apply from two or more alternatives, any of which may be reasonable under the circumstances, yet which may result in our reporting materially different results than would have been reported under a different alternative. Certain accounting policies are critical to presenting our financial condition and results of operations. They require management to make difficult, subjective or complex judgments about matters that are uncertain. Materially different amounts could be reported under different conditions or using different assumptions or estimates. Management considers the accounting policy relating to the allowance for credit losses to be a critical accounting policy. Because of the uncertainty of estimates involved in these matters, we may be required to do one or more of the following: significantly increase the allowance for credit losses or sustain credit losses that are significantly higher than the reserve provided. These could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition or results of operations.

From 2016 through 2025, we experienced significant growth following our initial public offering, a capital raise and the conversion from a savings and loan holding company with a savings bank subsidiary to a bank holding company with a national bank subsidiary. On March 12, 2026, the Company announced the entry into a merger agreement with Signature that, if approved, will nearly double the size of the Company. As a result of our recent accelerated growth, our ability to forecast our future results of operations and plan for and model future growth is limited and subject to a number of uncertainties. We have encountered and will continue to encounter risks and uncertainties frequently experienced by growing companies in the financial services industry, such as the risks and uncertainties described herein. Accordingly, we may be unable to prepare accurate internal financial forecasts and our results of operations in future reporting periods may be below the expectations of investors. If we do not address these risks successfully, our results of operations could differ materially from our estimates and forecasts or the expectations of our stockholders, causing our business to suffer and our stock price to decline.

On April 1, 2022, the Company finalized the sale of its legacy NFL consumer post settlement loan portfolio to a third party sponsored entity (or "Fund") in exchange for a nonvoting economic interest in the Fund as the loan portfolio's duration has extended over several years as a result of revisions to various claims administration protocols, the ongoing effects of the pandemic, revisions to qualifying physician requirements and the controversial use of race-based norms on former NFL players' concussion claims.  The following summarizes the chronology of related events and its impact to our risk: On December 10, 2018, the United States District Court for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania (the "Court") appointed a special investigator in the NFL Concussion Injury Litigation (Case No. 12-md-2323) to ensure the integrity of the NFL Concussion Settlement Program, the efficient processing of valid claims, and impose appropriate sanctions if wrongdoing is found in response to allegations of fraudulent claims. Additionally, on May 8, 2019, the Court modified the rules regarding qualifying physicians by limiting NFL claimants to utilizing doctors in their immediate area (a range of 150 miles from the claimant's home address). We believe that these Court rulings, including other administrative processes enacted by the claims administrator, have extended the duration of the Fund's assets which may increase its credit risk and our risk of loss of our investment. Although we have not encountered any such fraud at this time within our portfolio, if it is determined that any of the Fund's NFL loan borrowers or others committed fraud when filing their application to the NFL Concussion Settlement Program or to Esquire Bank as originator for the related loan, we may experience a loss on our investment, which could have an adverse effect on our operating results. Specifically, the uncertainty related to our borrowers' ("claimants") access to qualified testing, doctors, their attorneys and other administrative support, has introduced incremental duration risk which may further extend the settlement of claims and payoff of the NFL loans beyond the contractual maturity. Moreover, in August 2020, certain former NFL players filed lawsuits with the Court challenging the use of "race norming" to systematically disfavor Black players who submitted claims in the NFL Concussion Settlement Program. In general, the lawsuits alleged that "race-norming" was being used in the claims administration process to artificially reduce estimates of Black players' pre-concussion cognitive functioning levels thereby concluding that Black players suffered lesser impairments from their concussions than their medical diagnoses and tests otherwise indicated.  As a result, the plaintiffs allege that Black claimants were determined not to qualify for settlement payments despite sustaining incapacitating injuries comparable to their white counterparts. In March 2021, the Court dismissed one of the lawsuits on procedural grounds. On June 2, 2021, the NFL and class counsel voluntarily pledged to abandon "race-norming" in the assessment of all settlement claims both prospectively and retrospectively. On October 23, 2021, there was further agreement that no race norms or race demographic estimates shall be used in the settlement program going forward and the NFL will not be able to appeal to settlement administrators to require race norms be applied. On March 4, 2022, the Court formally approved an agreement to eliminate any consideration of race in the Settlement Program and modified the neuropsychological testing protocol. Overall, we believe this may represent a positive development for NFL claimants but may again further extend the NFL portfolio duration as the claim settlement process is re-calibrated and new claims protocols are developed for retrospective and prospective claims. If the processing of claims for the Fund's loan portfolio continues to extend beyond our maturity for these loans due to the aforementioned fraud, revisions to qualifying physician requirements, revised protocols due to "race-norming" claims, or the additional administrative processes, portfolio delinquencies, credit downgrades and further losses as the result of possible charge-offs of these loans could occur or increase in the future, which would negatively impact our investment. As of December 31, 2025, the carrying amount of our investment in the Fund and our total exposure is $9.0 million, with a remaining life of 3.3 years.

Liquidity is essential to the Company's business. The Company relies on its ability to generate deposits and effectively manage the repayment of its liabilities to ensure that there is adequate liquidity to fund operations. An inability to raise funds through deposits, borrowings, the sale and maturities of loans and securities and other sources could have a substantial negative effect on liquidity. The Company's most important source of funds is its deposits. Deposit balances can decrease when customers perceive alternative investments as providing a better risk adjusted return, which are strongly influenced by such external factors as the direction of interest rates, local and national economic conditions and the availability and attractiveness of alternative investments. Further, the demand for deposits may be reduced due to a variety of factors such as current negative trends in the banking sector, the level of and/or composition of our uninsured deposits, demographic patterns, changes in customer preferences, reductions in consumers' disposable income, the monetary policy of the FRB or regulatory actions that decrease customer access to particular products. If customers move money out of bank deposits and into other investments such as money market funds, the Company would lose a relatively low-cost source of funds, which would increase its funding costs and reduce net interest income. Any changes made to the rates offered on deposits to remain competitive with other financial institutions may also adversely affect profitability and liquidity. Other primary sources of funds consist of cash flows from operations, maturities and sales of investment securities and/or loans, brokered deposits, borrowings from the FHLB and/or FRB discount window, and unsecured borrowings. The Company also may borrow funds from third-party lenders, such as other financial institutions. The Company's access to funding sources in amounts adequate to finance or capitalize its activities, or on terms that are acceptable, could be impaired by factors that affect the Company directly or the financial services industry or economy in general, such as disruptions in the financial markets or negative views and expectations about the prospects for the financial services industry, a decrease in the level of the Company's business activity as a result of a downturn in markets or by one or more adverse regulatory actions against the Company or the financial sector in general. Any decline in available funding could adversely impact the Company's ability to originate loans, invest in securities, meet expenses, or to fulfill obligations such as meeting deposit withdrawal demands, any of which could have a material adverse impact on its liquidity, business, financial condition and results of operations.

As of December 31, 2025, approximately $685.1 million, or 33%, of our total Bank deposits of $2.06 billion, were not FDIC insured. This excludes $11.8 million of the Company's deposits held by the Bank. We have traditionally obtained funds through deposits for use in lending and investment activities. The interest rates stated for borrowings typically exceed the interest rates paid on deposits. Deposit outflows can occur for a number of reasons, including; clients may seek investments with higher yields, clients with uninsured deposits may seek greater financial security during prolonged periods of volatile and unstable market conditions or clients may simply prefer to do business with our competitors, or for other reasons. If a significant portion of our deposits were withdrawn, we may need to rely more heavily on more expensive borrowings and other sources of funding to fund our business and meet withdrawal demands, adversely affecting our net interest margin. The occurrence of any of these events could materially and adversely affect our business, results of operations or financial condition.

The Bank has deposit accounts whose ownership is based on a fiduciary relationship. The FDIC's regulations generally state that the titling of the deposit account (together with the underlying records) must indicate the existence of the fiduciary relationship in order for insurance coverage to be available on a "pass-through" basis. Fiduciary relationships include, but are not limited to, relationships involving a trustee, agent, nominee, guardian, executor, or custodian. A bank with fiduciary deposit accounts with balances of more than $250,000 must diligently use the available data on these deposit accounts, including data indicating the existence of different principal and income beneficiaries to determine its best estimate of the uninsured portion of these accounts. As of December 31, 2025, the Company had approximately $1.23 billion of law firm escrow (or trust) deposits that were evaluated by management to identify an appropriate estimate of FDIC insurance coverage that passes through each deposit account to the beneficial owner of the funds held in the account. To a lesser extent, the Bank maintains fiduciary accounts for our qualified settlement fund relationships as well as bankruptcy trustee relationships where management estimates are also employed to determine FDIC coverage.  Management's uninsured balance estimate may understate the amount of the Bank's uninsured deposits and may not reflect the assessment of the FDIC if the Bank is placed into receivership. Such understated amounts of uninsured deposits would result in less deposit insurance coverage available to our depositors and could materially and adversely affect our business, results of operations or financial condition.

At December 31, 2025, our commercial loans totaled $1.25 billion, or 70.8% of our total loans, including $1.18 billion of Commercial Litigation-Related Loans, which represented 94.6% of our commercial loans. We intend to increase our originations of commercial loans, including our Commercial Litigation-Related Loans, which consist of working capital lines of credit, case cost lines of credit, term loans to law firms, and other commercial litigation-related loans. These loans generally have more risk than 1?–?4 family mortgage loans and commercial loans secured by real estate. Since repayment of commercial loans, including our Commercial Litigation-Related Loans, depends on the successful receipt of settlement proceeds or the successful management and operation of the borrower's businesses, repayment of such loans can be affected by adverse court decisions and adverse conditions in the local and national economy. Commercial Litigation-Related Loans present unique credit risks in that attorney or law firm revenues can be volatile depending on the number of cases, the timing of court decisions, the timing of the overall judicial process, and the timing of those settlements as well as related payments on those settlements. In our experience, an average case can take two to four years to litigate and settle. Determining the value of an attorney's or law firm's case inventory (borrowing base) is also inherently an imprecise exercise. Though repayment of case lines is not dependent on a favorable case settlement, unfavorable outcomes can ultimately impact the cash flows of the borrower. An adverse development with respect to one loan or one Commercial Litigation-Related Loan credit relationship can expose us to significantly greater risk of loss compared to an adverse development with respect to a 1?–?4 family mortgage loan or a commercial real estate loan. Because we plan to continue to increase our originations of these loans, commercial loans generally have a larger average size as compared with other loans such as commercial real estate loans, and the collateral for commercial loans is generally less readily-marketable, losses incurred on a small number of commercial loans could have a disproportionate and material adverse impact on our financial condition and results of operations.

At December 31, 2025, we had $372.8 million of multifamily loans and $107.3 million of commercial real estate loans. Multifamily and commercial real estate loans represented 27.3% of our total loan portfolio at December 31, 2025. Multifamily and commercial real estate loans are often larger and involve greater risks than other types of lending because payments on such loans are often dependent on the successful operation or development of the property or business involved. Repayment of such loans is often more sensitive than other types of loans to adverse conditions in the real estate market or the general business climate and economy. Accordingly, a downturn in the real estate market and a challenging business and economic environment may increase our risk related to multifamily and commercial real estate loans. Unlike 1?–?4 family mortgage loans, which generally are made on the basis of the borrower's ability to make repayment from their employment and other income and which are secured by real property whose value tends to be more easily ascertainable, multifamily and commercial real estate loans typically are made on the basis of the borrower's ability to make repayment from the cash flow of the commercial venture. If the cash flow from business operations is reduced, the borrower's ability to repay the loan may be impaired. Due to the larger average size of each multifamily and commercial real estate loan as compared with other loans such as 1?–?4 family loans, as well as collateral that is generally less readily-marketable, losses incurred on a small number of multifamily and commercial real estate loans could have a material adverse impact on our financial condition and results of operations.

At December 31, 2025, our consumer loans held for investment totaled $22.8 million, or 1.3% of our total loan portfolio, of which $3.1 million, or 13.8%, were post-settlement consumer loans. Consumer loan collections are dependent on the borrower's continuing financial stability and are therefore more likely to be affected by adverse personal circumstances, such as a loss of employment or unexpected medical costs. While our Consumer Litigation-Related Loans, which consist of post-settlement consumer loans, are typically well secured by the settlement amount, we can still be exposed to the financial stability of the borrower as a result of unforeseen rulings or administrative legal anomalies with a particular borrower's settlement that eliminate or greatly reduce their settlement amount. Furthermore, the application of various federal and state laws, including bankruptcy and insolvency laws, may limit our ability to recover on such loans. As we increase our purchases or originations of consumer loans, it may become necessary to increase our provision for credit losses in the event our losses on these loans increase, which would reduce our profits.

Unlike larger financial institutions that are more geographically diversified, a large portion of our business is concentrated primarily in the state of New York, and in New York City in particular. As of December 31, 2025, 36.7% of our loan portfolio was in New York and our loan portfolio had concentrations of 27.8% in New York City. If the local economy, and particularly the real estate market, declines, the rates of delinquencies, defaults, foreclosures, bankruptcies and losses in our loan portfolio would likely increase. As a result of this lack of diversification in our loan portfolio, a downturn in the local economy generally and real estate market specifically could significantly reduce our profitability and growth and adversely affect our financial condition.

Loan customers may not repay their loans according to the terms of their loans, and the collateral securing the payment of their loans may be insufficient to assure repayment. We may experience significant credit losses, which could have a material adverse effect on our operating results. Various assumptions and judgments about the collectability of the loan portfolio are made, including the creditworthiness of borrowers and the value of the real estate and other assets serving as collateral for the repayment of many loans. In determining the amount of the allowance for credit losses, management reviews the loans and the loss and delinquency experience and evaluates economic conditions. At December 31, 2025, our allowance for credit losses as a percentage of total loans, net of unearned income, was 1.37%. The determination of the appropriate level of allowance is subject to judgment and requires us to make significant estimates of current credit risks and trends, all of which are subject to material changes. If assumptions prove to be incorrect, the allowance for credit losses may not cover probable incurred losses in the loan portfolio at the date of the financial statements. Significant additions to the allowance would materially decrease net income. Nonperforming assets totaled $8.6 million as of December 31, 2025, and consisted of one multifamily loan totaling $7.8 million and one commercial loan (a small business merchant uncorrelated to our primary commercial litigation lending platform and other commercial loans) totaling $736 thousand. Nonperforming loans may increase and nonperforming or delinquent loans may adversely affect future performance. In addition, federal and state regulators periodically review the allowance for credit losses and may require an increase in the allowance for credit losses or recognize further loan charge-offs. Any significant increase in our allowance for credit losses or loan charge-offs as required by these regulatory agencies could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition. Bank regulators periodically review our allowance for credit losses and may require an increase to the provision for credit losses or further loan charge-offs. Any increase in our allowance for credit losses or loan charge-offs as required by these regulatory authorities may have a material adverse effect on our results of operations or financial condition.

With a growing and generally unseasoned loan portfolio, our credit risk may continue to increase and our future performance could be adversely affected. While we believe we have underwriting standards designed to manage normal lending risks, it is difficult to assess the future performance of our loan portfolio due to the recent origination of many of these loans. As a result, it is difficult to predict whether any of our loans will become nonperforming or delinquent loans, or whether we will have any nonperforming or delinquent loans that will adversely affect our future performance. At December 31, 2025, the weighted average age of our loans was 8.03 years, 3.69 years, 3.26 years, 3.57 years and 4.26 years for our 1?–?4 family loans, multifamily loans, commercial real estate loans, commercial loans and consumer loans, respectively. At December 31, 2025, the weighted average age of our loan portfolio was 3.61 years, however, the average customer relationship is of a longer term.

As a part of the products and services that we offer, we make commercial, consumer and commercial real estate loans. The principal economic risk associated with each class of loans is the creditworthiness of the borrower, which is affected by the strength of the relevant business market segment, local market conditions, and general economic conditions. Additional factors related to the credit quality of commercial loans include the quality of the management of the business and the borrower's ability both to properly evaluate changes in the supply and demand characteristics affecting their market for products and services, and to effectively respond to those changes. Additional factors related to the credit quality of consumer loans, particularly consumer post-settlement loans, include the quality of the post-settlement claim and unforeseen court rulings or administrative legal anomalies which could impact the final settlement amount. Additional factors related to the credit quality of commercial real estate loans include tenant vacancy rates and the quality of management of the property. A failure to effectively measure and limit the credit risk associated with our loan portfolio could have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition, and results of operations.

Financial services institutions are interrelated as a result of trading, clearing, counterparty or other relationships. We have exposure to many different industries and counterparties, and routinely execute transactions with counterparties in the financial services industry, including commercial banks, brokers and dealers, investment banks and other institutional customers. Many of these transactions expose us to credit risk in the event of a default by a counterparty or client. In addition, our credit risk may be exacerbated when our collateral cannot be foreclosed upon or is liquidated at prices not sufficient to recover the full amount of the credit or derivative exposure due. Furthermore, successful operation of our payment processing business depends on the soundness of ISOs, third party processors, payment facilitators, clearing agents and others that we rely on to conduct our payment processing business. Any losses resulting from such third parties could adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations.

Our business strategy is to continue to grow our assets and expand our operations, including through strategic acquisitions, such as our announced merger with Signature. Our ability to grow depends, in part, upon our ability to expand our market share, successfully attract core deposits, and to identify loan and investment opportunities as well as opportunities to generate fee-based income. We can provide no assurance that we will be successful in increasing the volume of our loans and deposits at acceptable levels and upon terms acceptable to us. We also can provide no assurance that we will be successful in expanding our operations organically or through strategic acquisition while managing the costs and implementation risks associated with this growth strategy. We expect to continue to experience growth in the number of our employees and customers and the scope of our operations. Our success will depend upon the ability of our officers and key employees to continue to implement and improve our operational and other systems, to manage multiple, concurrent customer relationships, and to hire, train and manage our employees. In the event that we are unable to perform all these tasks and meet these challenges effectively, including continuing to attract core deposits, our operations, and consequently our earnings, could be adversely impacted.