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MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA
(BME:MRL)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
€12.50
▼(-10.27% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/30/26
The score is anchored by improving fundamentals and constructive earnings-call updates (raised FFO guidance, strong operational metrics and data-center commercialization), supported by a low P/E. These positives are tempered by weak technicals (price below key moving averages with negative momentum) and financial-quality/cash-flow concerns where reported earnings appear less repeatable than cash generation.
Positive Factors
Rental and FFO Growth
Double-digit rental and FFO growth, together with higher guidance, indicates stronger recurring operating performance and leasing execution. If maintained, this expands internally generated resources for investment and supports earnings visibility over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Phase 3 Funding and Dilution
Reliance on additional capital for Phase 3 creates execution and shareholder-return risk even with a strong current balance sheet. Equity or convertible issuance may dilute existing holders, while funding conditions could affect the pace and economics of development.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Rental and FFO Growth
Double-digit rental and FFO growth, together with higher guidance, indicates stronger recurring operating performance and leasing execution. If maintained, this expands internally generated resources for investment and supports earnings visibility over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA (MRL) vs. iShares MSCI Spain ETF (EWP)
Market Cap
€7.10B
Dividend Yield1.88%
Average Volume (3M)1.55M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.1
Beta (1Y)0.74
Revenue Growth13.21%
EPS Growth20.37%
CountryES
Employees296
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.41
Shares Outstanding620,000,000
10 Day Avg. Volume1,428,636
30 Day Avg. Volume1,546,717
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.06
Price to Book (P/B)0.87
Price to Sales (P/S)12.72
P/FCF Ratio17.27
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€16.14Price Target Upside15.87% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.53
Revenue Forecast (FY)€610.05M
MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, SA stands as a leading real estate firm traded on Spain's benchmark IBEX-35 stock index. Structured as a publicly listed SOCIMI, its core business involves the strategic acquisition, proactive management, operational over...
How the Company Makes Money
MERLIN Properties primarily makes money by owning commercial real estate and generating recurring rental income from tenants under lease contracts.
Key revenue streams:
1) Rental income (core): The company leases space in its properties (offices,...
MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 27, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strong operational and commercial performance with double‑digit revenue growth, meaningful data‑center commercialization progress (Phase 1 fully let, rapid conversion of bookings, materially higher MW commercialized), robust shopping center and logistics metrics, low LTV and strong liquidity. Key risks highlighted were rising financing and construction costs, grid/permitting timing for certain data center sites, and the need for additional funding for Phase 3 (with potential dilution). Overall the positives—substantial data‑center traction, solid traditional asset performance and a conservative balance sheet—outweigh the near‑term funding, cost and permitting challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line and FFO Growth
Double-digit revenue growth (+11.7%) with gross rental income of EUR 292m (+10% like-for-like). Total income EUR 307m and FFO EUR 180m, up +8% year‑on‑year. Company raised full-year FFO guidance from EUR 327m to EUR 340m (~EUR 0.55 per share from EUR 0.53).
Negative Updates
Rising Financial Expenses and FFO per Share Impact
Increase in financial expenses reduced per-share metrics: FFO per share down -1.8% YoY on a 620m share base (weighted metric would show a +2.6% increase). Management notes higher finance costs are unavoidable and may continue.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line and FFO Growth
Double-digit revenue growth (+11.7%) with gross rental income of EUR 292m (+10% like-for-like). Total income EUR 307m and FFO EUR 180m, up +8% year‑on‑year. Company raised full-year FFO guidance from EUR 327m to EUR 340m (~EUR 0.55 per share from EUR 0.53).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
MERLIN raised full‑year FFO guidance to EUR 340m (from EUR 327m), implying roughly EUR 0.55 per share versus the prior EUR 0.53 (H1 FFO was EUR 180m, +8% y/y), after H1 total income of EUR 307m and gross rental income of EUR 292m (+10% LFL); management reiterated like‑for‑like rental growth of 3.3% (shopping centers +6.4%), overall occupancy ~94.7% (shopping centers 96.9%, logistics 95%), GAV +3.7% LFL and NTA of EUR 15.99/share (shares trading at a ~4–5% NAV discount). On data centers they said commercialization has accelerated (160 MW let so far, previously 112 MW; 2026 target 200 MW now expected to be far exceeded and company said year‑end commercialization could reach ~340 MW), CapEx deployment is brought forward into 2026–28, balance sheet liquidity is EUR 2.6bn after a EUR 768m capital increase, LTV is 24.5% (management unwilling to exceed ~32–35%), investment‑grade ratings are maintained, and additional funding is planned via capital markets (likely including a convertible bond) to support Phase 3.MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
67
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 579.63M | 549.83M | 503.02M | 504.70M | 439.04M | 382.83M |
| Gross Profit | 494.60M | 467.82M | 508.64M | 420.96M | 389.94M | 336.51M |
| EBITDA | 1.02B | 954.23M | 430.52M | 36.60M | 153.42M | 518.04M |
| Net Income | 852.15M | 786.13M | 283.76M | -83.50M | 263.09M | 512.22M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 15.59B | 14.27B | 13.46B | 12.07B | 12.05B | 14.27B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.57B | 1.22B | 1.56B | 461.22M | 427.45M | 942.87M |
| Total Debt | 5.00B | 5.06B | 4.92B | 4.52B | 4.25B | 6.19B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.30B | 6.19B | 5.96B | 5.53B | 5.20B | 7.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | 9.29B | 8.07B | 7.50B | 6.54B | 6.85B | 7.03B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 405.03M | 297.30M | 225.96M | 220.44M | 158.79M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 415.60M | 316.78M | 227.97M | 222.16M | 162.46M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -576.31M | -294.38M | -274.75M | 1.18B | -454.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -177.02M | 1.07B | 78.56M | -1.70B | 335.39M |
MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA Technical Analysis
Negative
13.93
Price Trends
12.40
Negative
13.69
Negative
13.88
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.29
Negative
39.21
Neutral
64.02
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ES:MRL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.93 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.74, above the 50-day MA of 12.40, and above the 200-day MA of 13.88, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.29 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 39.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.02 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ES:MRL.
MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | €1.64B | 25.27 | 4.47% | 18.63% | 57.91% | ― | |
70 Outperform | €3.08B | 8.67 | 5.84% | 6.29% | 3.55% | -31.97% | |
69 Neutral | €1.38B | 6.93 | 8.76% | 4.55% | 81.78% | 36.27% | |
66 Neutral | €327.45M | 13.92 | 6.96% | 7.51% | 209.70% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
63 Neutral | €7.10B | 8.13 | 9.95% | 1.88% | 13.21% | 20.37% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
ES:MRL
MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA
11.47
-1.62
-12.35%
ES:COL
Inmobiliaria Colonial
5.09
-0.10
-1.91%
ES:RLIA
Realia Business
0.92
-0.10
-9.80%
ES:ARM
Arima Real Estate SOCIMI SA
13.40
4.24
46.34%
ES:MVC
Metrovacesa SA
10.84
1.11
11.37%
ES:YEPSA
Emperador Properties SOCIMI SA
10.60
4.38
70.47%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.