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Evolution Petroleum
(NYSE MKT:EPM)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$4.00
▲(14.94% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/17/26
EPM’s score is driven mainly by a strong balance sheet and improved recent cash generation, complemented by a constructive earnings-call tone highlighting Q4 recovery and capital-light royalty growth. The score is held back by a weakened earnings trajectory (loss in 2026), only neutral technical momentum with longer-term downtrend signals, and valuation uncertainty from a negative P/E despite the very high dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Low leverage
Very low leverage reduces financial risk and preserves flexibility to fund development, pursue acquisitions, or withstand commodity volatility. This stronger balance-sheet position also limits interest burden and supports the company’s ability to sustain operations and shareholder distributions.
Negative Factors
Profitability deterioration
The shift from strong profits to a 2026 loss demonstrates that earnings power and margins remain vulnerable. Even with positive operating earnings, weaker net profitability can constrain internally funded investment, pressure returns on equity, and make shareholder distributions less secure over time.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Low leverage
Very low leverage reduces financial risk and preserves flexibility to fund development, pursue acquisitions, or withstand commodity volatility. This stronger balance-sheet position also limits interest burden and supports the company’s ability to sustain operations and shareholder distributions.
Read all positive factors
Evolution Petroleum Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue By Segment
Breaks down income from different business areas, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability.
Breaks down income from different business areas, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyEvolution Petroleum (EPM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$147.43M
Dividend Yield13.08%
Average Volume (3M)475.70K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.36
Revenue Growth0.59%
EPS Growth-345.77%
CountryUS
Employees11
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.07
Shares Outstanding40,172,226
10 Day Avg. Volume297,164
30 Day Avg. Volume475,701
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.13
Price to Book (P/B)2.09
Price to Sales (P/S)1.46
P/FCF Ratio-18.67
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.22
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.09
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit13.65
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.69
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.94Price Target Upside41.88% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)0.03
Revenue Forecast (FY)$87.68M
Evolution Petroleum Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Evolution Petroleum Corporation, an energy company, engages in the development, production, ownership, exploitation, and investment of onshore oil and gas properties in the United States. The company was founded in 2003 and is based in Houston, Te...
How the Company Makes Money
Evolution Petroleum makes money primarily by selling its share of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) production from properties where it owns working interests, typically as a non-operator. Revenue is generated when production ...
Evolution Petroleum Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Sep 15, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was broadly optimistic. Management highlighted a significant fourth-quarter recovery, stable full-year production and reserves, stronger liquids pricing, improving operating performance, active development across royalty assets, continued dividends and additional capital-light growth opportunities. These positives were tempered by natural gas pricing weakness, lower year-over-year fourth-quarter production and adjusted EBITDA, lower full-year operating cash flow, limited forward visibility and the need to manage leverage and liquidity.Positive Updates
Strong Fourth-Quarter Recovery
Fourth-quarter revenue increased 20% sequentially to $24.2 million, while adjusted EBITDA more than doubled sequentially to $6.5 million from $3.1 million. The improvement was driven by higher realized oil and NGL prices, increased production, the roll-off of the prior-period Delhi transportation adjustment, the cessation of winter weather impacts, Louisiana royalty contributions and improved Delhi performance.
Negative Updates
Natural Gas Pricing Headwinds
Natural gas pricing remained a headwind in the fourth quarter, particularly at Jonah. Regional differentials weighed on field-level realizations, while Henry Hub pricing was pressured by additional production, including Permian gas moving to the Gulf Coast, and market expectations for a warm winter.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Fourth-Quarter Recovery
Fourth-quarter revenue increased 20% sequentially to $24.2 million, while adjusted EBITDA more than doubled sequentially to $6.5 million from $3.1 million. The improvement was driven by higher realized oil and NGL prices, increased production, the roll-off of the prior-period Delhi transportation adjustment, the cessation of winter weather impacts, Louisiana royalty contributions and improved Delhi performance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For fiscal '27, the company put out “another kind of $4 million to $6 million” in capital expenditures, which “doesn't yet include any CapEx potential in Chaveroo,” assumes some activity in SCOOP/STACK, and “could certainly accelerate more than we thought”; Chaveroo development-well AFEs were a “preliminary number” of “about $3.6 million to $3.9 million.” Management did not provide production or LOE guidance, said total-asset LOE was “right around $20 per BOE” in the fourth quarter and would “go down a little bit over time,” and declared a fiscal Q1 2027 quarterly dividend of $0.12 per share, marking its 52nd consecutive quarterly payment.Evolution Petroleum Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 86.34M | 85.84M | 85.88M | 128.51M | 108.93M |
| Gross Profit | 13.22M | 14.51M | 19.00M | 55.83M | 52.75M |
| EBITDA | 26.26M | 26.83M | 27.02M | 60.02M | 49.77M |
| Net Income | -2.43M | 1.47M | 4.08M | 35.22M | 32.63M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 168.70M | 160.25M | 162.88M | 132.65M | 148.05M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.14M | 2.51M | 6.45M | 11.03M | 8.28M |
| Total Debt | 56.95M | 37.57M | 39.66M | 184.00K | 21.28M |
| Total Liabilities | 108.29M | 88.44M | 81.75M | 40.56M | 72.53M |
| Stockholders Equity | 60.40M | 71.81M | 81.13M | 92.09M | 75.51M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -6.75M | 11.41M | -26.90M | 44.28M | -2.41M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 23.52M | 33.05M | 22.73M | 51.27M | 52.46M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -27.18M | -21.64M | -49.63M | -6.99M | -54.87M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 7.29M | -15.35M | 22.32M | -41.53M | 5.42M |
Evolution Petroleum Technical Analysis
Positive
3.48
Price Trends
3.55
Positive
3.68
Negative
3.82
Negative
Market Momentum
0.02
Negative
55.96
Neutral
82.42
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EPM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.48 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.59, below the 50-day MA of 3.55, and below the 200-day MA of 3.82, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.42 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EPM.
Evolution Petroleum Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
85 Outperform | $247.27M | 2.59 | 16.62% | ― | 89.03% | 80.68% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
63 Neutral | $147.43M | -49.46 | -3.80% | 13.08% | 0.59% | -345.77% | |
55 Neutral | $374.32M | -1.46 | -122.23% | ― | 2.69% | -289.33% | |
52 Neutral | $184.90M | 8.92 | 5.13% | 59.31% | -23.70% | 30.67% | |
42 Neutral | $131.05M | -1.53 | -474.82% | 4.17% | -9.01% | -293.99% |
* Energy Sector Average
EPM
Evolution Petroleum
3.67
-0.59
-13.91%
GTE
Gran Tierra Energy
10.58
6.16
139.37%
AMPY
Amplify Energy
4.46
-0.14
-3.04%
EP
Empire Petroleum
3.15
-0.88
-21.78%
IMPP
Imperial Petroleum
5.42
0.90
19.91%
Evolution Petroleum Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Evolution Petroleum boosts dividend amid reserve growth
Positive
Sep 15, 2026
Evolution Petroleum reported stronger fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results for the period ended June 30, 2026, with Q4 net income rising to $4.6 million and revenues up 15% year over year to $24.2 million on better realized pricing. Pr...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Evolution Petroleum expands Midland Basin royalty portfolio
Positive
Aug 21, 2026
On August 20, 2026, Evolution Petroleum closed a $16 million acquisition of mineral and royalty interests covering about 3,420 net royalty acres in the core Midland Basin, spanning five Texas counties. Funded with proceeds from a recent equity off...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Evolution Petroleum Completes Equity Offering for Permian Acquisition
Positive
Aug 20, 2026
On August 18, 2026, Evolution Petroleum priced a registered underwritten public offering of 3,700,000 shares of common stock at $3.25 per share, with underwriters receiving a 30-day option for an additional 555,000 shares that was fully exercised ...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Evolution Petroleum Expands Permian Royalty Acreage Portfolio
Positive
Aug 18, 2026
On August 18, 2026, Evolution Petroleum agreed to acquire mineral, royalty and overriding royalty interests spanning about 3,420 net royalty acres in the core Midland Basin of the Permian Basin in Texas for approximately $16 million in cash. The d...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.