Erste Group Bank AG (EBKDY) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

For 2026, Erste expects organic loan growth of 6%-8%, “towards the upper end” of that range excluding Erste Bank Polska, with year-end net loan stock “north of EUR 290 billion”; net interest income should increase “above 6%” excluding Erste Bank Polska and exceed the enlarged-group target of EUR 11 billion “by a comfortable margin”; fees ex-Polska should grow “by about 10%,” while fees including Polska remain “about EUR 4 billion”; the cost-income ratio should be “below 46%” ex-Polska and “lower than 45%” including Polska; costs remain “about EUR 7 billion” on a fixed adjusted basis, with roughly a 3% cost uplift ex-Polska, and Polish integration costs were forecasted at up to EUR 180 million; risk costs including Polska are targeted at “the lower end” of the 25 basis points-30 basis points range; group NPL ratio is expected to stay “more or less at current levels” and NPL coverage is projected “somewhere around 70%”; return on tangible equity should be higher than 20%, earnings per share uplift higher than 20%, and reported net profit higher than EUR 4 billion, while the 14.25% CET1 management target remains unchanged as a base case; detailed 2027 guidance will be provided with fourth quarter results at the end of February.