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tonies SE Class A
(XETRA:TNIE)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
€13.00
▲(12.26% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/20/26
The score is primarily supported by improving fundamentals (revenue acceleration, return to profitability, and a low-leverage balance sheet) and a constructive earnings call with reaffirmed 2026 targets. Offsetting this are weak/uneven cash-flow conversion (notably the 2025 drop in operating cash flow) and a very stretched valuation (high P/E), while technical indicators are broadly neutral.
Positive Factors
Strong revenue growth and international expansion
High growth across the group and especially North America indicates expanding brand reach and market penetration. A rising international revenue mix can diversify demand and provide a larger base for sustained platform and content growth.
Negative Factors
Uneven cash conversion
Weak and volatile cash conversion limits the quality of reported earnings and can increase reliance on seasonal financing. Unless operating cash flow becomes more consistent, investment, inventory needs and expansion may place pressure on financial flexibility.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong revenue growth and international expansion
High growth across the group and especially North America indicates expanding brand reach and market penetration. A rising international revenue mix can diversify demand and provide a larger base for sustained platform and content growth.
Read all positive factors
tonies SE Class A (TNIE) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)
Market Cap
€1.50B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)174.93K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.58
Revenue Growth36.50%
EPS Growth-146.88%
CountryDE
Employees587
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryLeisure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.12
Shares Outstanding126,847,590
10 Day Avg. Volume206,961
30 Day Avg. Volume174,932
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-11.39
Price to Book (P/B)3.35
Price to Sales (P/S)1.89
P/FCF Ratio-863.21
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€20.00Price Target Upside72.71% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.35
Revenue Forecast (FY)€787.30M
tonies SE Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
tonies SE, through its subsidiaries, develops, produces, and distributes digital, cloud based, and interactive audio platform and entertainment system for children in Germany, the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company...
How the Company Makes Money
tonies SE primarily makes money by selling (1) hardware and (2) content tied to its platform. The hardware revenue stream comes from sales of the Toniebox audio player and related accessories. The content revenue stream comes from sales of “Tonie”...
tonies SE Class A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 20, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong operational and commercial story: high double-digit revenue growth, rapid device and figurine sales, significant international acceleration (notably North America), major content and licensing wins, and confirmation of full-year guidance and midterm ambitions. Key near-term challenges were highlighted — lower gross margin (down ~6.6pp), a very low adjusted EBITDA margin in H1 (0.7%), working capital-driven free cash flow pressure, elevated one-off corporate costs, and supply-chain/tariff volatility. Management provided mitigations (sourcing diversification, secured chip supply, refinancing) and emphasized that many margin and cash effects are timing-related and that H2 (holiday season) will drive full-year performance. On balance the operational momentum, product innovation (Toniebox Lite), and content pipeline outweigh the transitory financial headwinds, but execution in H2 remains important to realize the stated targets.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth
Group revenue of EUR 243 million in H1 2026, up 41% in constant currency versus prior year; Q2 revenue accelerated to +49% CC.
Negative Updates
Gross Margin Contraction
Gross margin declined to 64.3% in H1 2026 from 70.9% in the prior year (down ~6.6 percentage points), primarily due to a product mix shift toward Tonieboxes (lower gross margin product) and the timing/volatility of tariffs.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth
Group revenue of EUR 243 million in H1 2026, up 41% in constant currency versus prior year; Q2 revenue accelerated to +49% CC.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Tonies confirmed full‑year 2026 guidance: at least 20% constant‑currency group growth to more than EUR 760m in revenue, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 9–11% and positive free cash flow for the year (guidance already reflects the Toniebox Lite launch); management also targets >30% constant‑currency growth in North America for 2026 and reiterated its midterm ambition of ~EUR 1.4bn revenue and 16–18% adjusted EBITDA margin by 2030. The company said it is on track after an H1 that delivered EUR 243m revenue (+41% CC), 830k+ Tonieboxes sold (+54% Y/Y), ~17m Tonies purchased (c. EUR 4m higher Y/Y), Toniebox revenue of EUR 57m (+69%), Tonies revenue of EUR 177m (+36%), accessories +15%, Q2 revenue +49% CC (North America Q2 +85%), H1 adjusted EBITDA margin of 0.7%, and noted seasonality with >2/3 of revenue in H2 (~50% in Q4); guidance assumes stable memory‑chip costs and FX, and management stated tariff and supply risks are mitigated.tonies SE Class A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2026 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Mar 2023 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 696.66M | 630.35M | 480.55M | 360.95M | 258.28M | 187.97M |
| Gross Profit | 253.67M | 236.46M | 243.51M | 119.44M | 32.71M | 51.16M |
| EBITDA | 34.94M | 48.45M | 29.60M | 16.89M | -14.78M | -227.37M |
| Net Income | -13.12M | 13.11M | 13.08M | -11.81M | -31.66M | -240.50M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 592.41M | 641.06M | 558.50M | 492.35M | 481.83M | 438.03M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 32.95M | 87.85M | 86.67M | 59.29M | 54.92M | 75.59M |
| Total Debt | 40.29M | 36.82M | 20.36M | 28.60M | 12.43M | 1.22M |
| Total Liabilities | 251.17M | 284.52M | 212.10M | 167.03M | 147.20M | 156.74M |
| Stockholders Equity | 341.24M | 356.54M | 346.39M | 325.32M | 334.64M | 281.30M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -34.65M | -1.38M | 30.99M | -4.85M | -88.63M | -41.82M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -29.09M | 4.86M | 47.16M | 8.14M | -75.08M | -32.88M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -17.50M | -18.17M | -14.11M | -12.91M | -13.55M | -8.94M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 33.89M | 17.01M | -9.11M | 11.59M | 67.93M | 102.52M |
tonies SE Class A Technical Analysis
Positive
11.58
Price Trends
12.24
Negative
11.51
Positive
10.96
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.16
Positive
47.89
Neutral
56.23
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:TNIE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.58 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.89, below the 50-day MA of 12.24, and above the 200-day MA of 10.96, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.16 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DE:TNIE.
tonies SE Class A Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | €240.77M | 10.20 | 29.50% | ― | 8.79% | 438.95% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
59 Neutral | €1.50B | -98.33 | -3.76% | ― | 36.50% | -146.88% | |
55 Neutral | €403.29M | -12.14 | -5.43% | ― | -12.55% | 78.82% | |
41 Neutral | €38.12M | -1.26 | -68.17% | ― | -12.21% | 62.09% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.