tonies SE Class A (TNIE) AI Stock Analysis

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tonies SE Class A

(XETRA:TNIE)

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Rating:59Neutral

Price Target:EUR 14.50▲(5.84% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:08/20/26

The score is primarily supported by improving fundamentals (revenue acceleration, return to profitability, and a low-leverage balance sheet) and a constructive earnings call with reaffirmed 2026 targets. Offsetting this are weak/uneven cash-flow conversion (notably the 2025 drop in operating cash flow) and a very stretched valuation (high P/E), while technical indicators are broadly neutral.

Positive Factors

Strong revenue and installed-base growthRapid revenue growth alongside expanding Toniebox adoption strengthens the installed base that supports recurring purchases of figurines and content. This ecosystem effect can improve customer lifetime value and create a durable platform for further international expansion over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Weak and volatile cash conversionThe sharp deterioration in operating and free cash flow shows that improving accounting earnings have not yet translated consistently into cash generation. Volatile conversion can constrain internally funded growth, increase reliance on seasonal financing, and make execution more sensitive to inventory and working-capital requirements.

tonies SE Class A (TNIE) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)

Market Cap: EUR 1.68B
Dividend Yield: ―
Average Volume (3M): 191.83K
Price to Earnings (P/E): -114.2
Beta (1Y): 0.52
Revenue Growth: 36.50%
EPS Growth: -146.88%
Country: Germany
Employees: 587
Sector: Consumer Cyclical
Sector Strength: 61
Industry: Leisure

tonies SE Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

tonies SE, through its subsidiaries, develops, produces, and distributes digital, cloud based, and interactive audio platform and entertainment system for children in Germany, the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company of...

tonies SE Class A Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 20, 2026(Q2-2026)|% Change Since:11.38%|Next Earnings Date:May 11, 2023

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call presented a strong operational and commercial story: high double-digit revenue growth, rapid device and figurine sales, significant international acceleration (notably North America), major content and licensing wins, and confirmation of full-year guidance and midterm ambitions. Key near-term challenges were highlighted — lower gross margin (down ~6.6pp), a very low adjusted EBITDA margin in H1 (0.7%), working capital-driven free cash flow pressure, elevated one-off corporate costs, and supply-chain/tariff volatility. Management provided mitigations (sourcing diversification, secured chip supply, refinancing) and emphasized that many margin and cash effects are timing-related and that H2 (holiday season) will drive full-year performance. On balance the operational momentum, product innovation (Toniebox Lite), and content pipeline outweigh the transitory financial headwinds, but execution in H2 remains important to realize the stated targets.

Positive Updates

Strong Top-Line Growth

Group revenue of EUR 243 million in H1 2026, up 41% in constant currency versus prior year; Q2 revenue accelerated to +49% CC.

Negative Updates

Gross Margin Contraction

Gross margin declined to 64.3% in H1 2026 from 70.9% in the prior year (down ~6.6 percentage points), primarily due to a product mix shift toward Tonieboxes (lower gross margin product) and the timing/volatility of tariffs.

Company Guidance

Tonies confirmed full‑year 2026 guidance: at least 20% constant‑currency group growth to more than EUR 760m in revenue, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 9–11% and positive free cash flow for the year (guidance already reflects the Toniebox Lite launch); management also targets >30% constant‑currency growth in North America for 2026 and reiterated its midterm ambition of ~EUR 1.4bn revenue and 16–18% adjusted EBITDA margin by 2030. The company said it is on track after an H1 that delivered EUR 243m revenue (+41% CC), 830k+ Tonieboxes sold (+54% Y/Y), ~17m Tonies purchased (c. EUR 4m higher Y/Y), Toniebox revenue of EUR 57m (+69%), Tonies revenue of EUR 177m (+36%), accessories +15%, Q2 revenue +49% CC (North America Q2 +85%), H1 adjusted EBITDA margin of 0.7%, and noted seasonality with >2/3 of revenue in H2 (~50% in Q4); guidance assumes stable memory‑chip costs and FX, and management stated tariff and supply risks are mitigated.

tonies SE Class A Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement shows a clear turnaround with accelerating revenue growth and a move to positive net income, and the balance sheet is conservatively positioned with low leverage. The main drag is cash-flow quality: operating cash flow fell sharply in 2025 and free cash flow turned slightly negative again, highlighting uneven cash conversion despite improved earnings.

Income Statement

66Positive

Balance Sheet

78Positive

Cash Flow

45Neutral

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2026	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Mar 2023	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	696.66M	630.35M	480.55M	360.95M	258.28M	187.97M
Gross Profit	253.67M	236.46M	243.51M	119.44M	32.71M	51.16M
EBITDA	34.94M	48.45M	29.60M	16.89M	-14.78M	-227.37M
Net Income	-13.12M	13.11M	13.08M	-11.81M	-31.66M	-240.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	592.41M	641.06M	558.50M	492.35M	481.83M	438.03M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	32.95M	87.85M	86.67M	59.29M	54.92M	75.59M
Total Debt	40.29M	36.82M	20.36M	28.60M	12.43M	1.22M
Total Liabilities	251.17M	284.52M	212.10M	167.03M	147.20M	156.74M
Stockholders Equity	341.24M	356.54M	346.39M	325.32M	334.64M	281.30M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-34.65M	-1.38M	30.99M	-4.85M	-88.63M	-41.82M
Operating Cash Flow	-29.09M	4.86M	47.16M	8.14M	-75.08M	-32.88M
Investing Cash Flow	-17.50M	-18.17M	-14.11M	-12.91M	-13.55M	-8.94M
Financing Cash Flow	33.89M	17.01M	-9.11M	11.59M	67.93M	102.52M

tonies SE Class A Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive

Last Price13.70

Price Trends

50DMA12.40Positive

100DMA12.33Positive

200DMA11.53Positive

Market Momentum

MACD0.33Positive

RSI56.87Neutral

STOCH36.30Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:TNIE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.70 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.51, above the 50-day MA of 12.40, and above the 200-day MA of 11.53, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.33 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.30 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DE:TNIE.

tonies SE Class A Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

DE:TNIE against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DE:WEW	72Outperform	EUR 267.52M	8.16	29.50%	―	10.82%	1293.70%
Sector *	61Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
DE:TNIE	59Neutral	EUR 1.72B	-114.17	-3.76%	―	36.50%	-146.88%
DE:HFG	46Neutral	EUR 430.81M	-15.97	-5.43%	―	-11.68%	84.80%
DE:MRX	37Underperform	EUR 32.34M	-1.07	-68.17%	―	-12.21%	62.09%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

DE:TNIE and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
DE:TNIE	tonies SE Class A	13.70	5.65	70.19%
DE:WEW	Westwing Group	13.75	0.35	2.61%
DE:HFG	HelloFresh	2.88	-2.98	-50.78%
DE:EAD	Erlebnis Akademie AG	2.92	-1.16	-28.43%
DE:MRX	Mister Spex SE	0.95	-0.50	-34.43%
DE:MTP	Munchener Tierpark Hellabrunn AG	234.00	-26.00	-10.00%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 20, 2026

tonies SE Class A AI Stock Analysis