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HelloFresh SE (DE:HFG)
XETRA:HFG
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HelloFresh SE
(XETRA:HFG)
Select Model
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
€7.50
▲(6.84% Upside)
HelloFresh SE's overall score reflects strong gross profit margins and strategic improvements, tempered by ongoing profitability challenges and weak technical indicators. The earnings call provided positive insights into efficiency gains and customer satisfaction, but order declines and valuation concerns weigh on the score.
Positive Factors
Efficiency Program Success
The efficiency program's success reflects improved operational performance, enhancing profitability and cash flow, which supports long-term financial health.
Contribution Margin Improvement
A higher contribution margin indicates better cost management and pricing power, which can sustain profitability and competitive positioning.
Free Cash Flow Growth
Strong free cash flow growth enhances financial flexibility, enabling strategic investments and shareholder returns, supporting long-term growth.
Negative Factors
Revenue Decline
A decline in revenue indicates potential market challenges and could impact future growth prospects if not addressed through strategic initiatives.
RTE Segment Challenges
Operational challenges in the RTE segment may hinder growth and customer retention, affecting overall business performance if not resolved.
Impact of Currency Fluctuations
Currency fluctuations can adversely affect profitability and financial results, adding uncertainty to financial planning and performance.
HelloFresh SE (HFG) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)
Market Cap
€1.21B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.34M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.21
Revenue Growth-8.97%
EPS Growth-66.04%
CountryDE
Employees21,783
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.26
Shares Outstanding166,940,570
10 Day Avg. Volume1,732,601
30 Day Avg. Volume1,336,828
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)N/A
P/FCF RatioN/A
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€10.42Price Target Upside48.43% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
HelloFresh SE Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionHelloFresh SE delivers meal kit solutions to prepare home-cooked meals using its recipes. The company offers premium meals, double portions, and others, as well as add-ons, such as soups, snacks, fruit boxes, desserts, ready-to-eat meals, and seasonal boxes. It also sells meal-kits through vending machines. The company has operations in the United States, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Germany, France, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom. It operates under the HelloFresh brand; and owns the Chefs Plate, EveryPlate, Factor75, Green Chef, and YouFoodz brand names. HelloFresh SE was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Berlin, Germany.
How the Company Makes MoneyHelloFresh generates revenue primarily through the sale of meal kits to its subscribers. The company operates on a subscription model where customers choose from various meal plans and receive weekly deliveries of pre-measured ingredients and recipes. Key revenue streams include the subscription fees paid by customers, which can vary depending on the selected meal plan and the number of servings per week. Additionally, HelloFresh benefits from partnerships with food producers and retailers, which can provide promotional opportunities and enhance brand visibility. Seasonal promotions, special meal offerings, and the expansion into new markets also contribute to revenue growth, alongside targeted marketing strategies aimed at customer acquisition and retention.
HelloFresh SE Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 30, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed picture with notable achievements in efficiency and strategic initiatives, yet faced ongoing challenges in the Ready-to-Eat segment and overall order declines. While there are signs of recovery and positive trends in customer satisfaction and innovation, the financial performance is still impacted by past operational issues and market pressures.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Stable Revenue Trend
Observed a stable revenue trend in Q3 with a decline of about 9% in constant currency, driven by a double-digit decline in orders, somewhat offset by a 4% increase in Average Order Value (AOV).
Adjusted EBITDA and Margin Improvements
Q3 adjusted EBITDA came in at EUR 40.3 million. Despite headwinds, maintained a double-digit adjusted EBITDA margin in meal kits with North America and International improving year-over-year.
Efficiency Program Progress
On track with the EUR 300 million efficiency program, with about 70% of initiatives implemented. Free cash flow before leases improved by over EUR 140 million year-to-date.
ReFresh Strategy and Product Innovation
Expanded meal kit weekly options to over 100, improving customer satisfaction and retention. Positive response to menu expansion and packaging upgrades among loyal and lapsed customers.
Free Cash Flow Improvement
Free cash flow year-to-date is up 4x year-over-year, and free cash flow per share is up over 5x year-over-year due to share buyback program.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline in Ready-to-Eat Segment
RTE segment saw revenue decline by about 5% year-over-year due to lower order rates from customers acquired in the first half of the year.
Continued Order Decline
Group orders down by about 13% year-over-year, with meal kits improving but RTE worsening sequentially.
Challenges in Ready-to-Eat Operations
Faced temporary operational setbacks in RTE earlier in the year, impacting customer satisfaction and retention, leading to additional costs.
USDA Recall Impact
Incurred a EUR 1.7 million inventory write-off due to a Listeria issue from a third-party manufacturer.
Company Guidance
During the HelloFresh Q3 2025 Results Call, Dominik Richter detailed the company's strategic focus on improving unit economics and customer experience over short-term revenue growth. The call highlighted a slight revenue decline of about 9% in constant currency, with a notable 4% increase in average order value (AOV). Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was reported at EUR 40.3 million, maintaining a double-digit margin despite FX headwinds and a mix of factors. The company implemented 70% of its EUR 300 million efficiency program, which is expected to reach 80% by year-end, and achieved significant improvements in free cash flow, which increased by over EUR 140 million year-to-date. The call also introduced the "ReFresh" strategy, with investments in expanding menu options and enhancing product quality, which positively impacted customer satisfaction metrics, including a sharp 18-point increase in Net Promoter Score since April. Despite challenges in the ready-to-eat (RTE) segment, HelloFresh has seen improvements in leading indicators and anticipates a recovery, aiming for profitable growth in 2026.HelloFresh SE Financial Statement Overview
Summary
HelloFresh SE demonstrates strong gross profit margins and improved leverage, but faces challenges in achieving profitability and consistent revenue growth. The cash flow position is strengthening, providing some financial flexibility.Income Statement
HelloFresh SE's income statement shows a mixed performance. The company experienced a decline in revenue growth, with a negative growth rate of -3.34% in the TTM period. Gross profit margin remains strong at 81.61%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is negative at -2.34%, reflecting challenges in achieving profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also low, suggesting operational inefficiencies.55
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reveals a moderate financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.0 in the TTM period, indicating reduced leverage. However, the return on equity is negative at -20.08%, highlighting profitability issues. The equity ratio is not explicitly provided, but the overall asset management appears stable.60
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis shows positive trends, with a significant free cash flow growth rate of 30.52% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.31, indicating decent cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.52, suggesting a reasonable conversion of earnings into cash.65
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 7.27B | 7.66B | 7.60B | 7.61B | 5.99B | 3.75B |
| Gross Profit | 6.08B | 4.80B | 4.92B | 4.99B | 3.95B | 2.47B |
| EBITDA | 339.80M | 303.90M | 339.90M | 395.60M | 506.00M | 465.90M |
| Net Income | -172.00M | -136.40M | 19.40M | 127.00M | 242.81M | 369.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.33B | 2.63B | 2.58B | 2.54B | 2.21B | 1.53B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 446.20M | 496.10M | 442.70M | 511.90M | 835.50M | 731.40M |
| Total Debt | 742.10M | 914.30M | 714.20M | 666.20M | 461.70M | 362.10M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.61B | 1.74B | 1.56B | 1.58B | 1.31B | 869.60M |
| Stockholders Equity | 720.20M | 891.70M | 1.02B | 961.70M | 895.70M | 656.40M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 244.60M | 73.20M | 78.00M | -104.10M | 206.80M | 517.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 366.50M | 239.30M | 383.80M | 313.40M | 458.60M | 601.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -135.40M | -162.60M | -339.60M | -443.80M | -321.60M | -210.50M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -172.20M | -26.90M | -110.80M | -204.30M | -62.70M | 163.40M |
HelloFresh SE Technical Analysis
Negative
7.02
Price Trends
7.53
Negative
8.04
Negative
8.98
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.06
Positive
41.42
Neutral
29.71
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:HFG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.02 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.34, below the 50-day MA of 7.53, and below the 200-day MA of 8.98, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DE:HFG.
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HelloFresh SE Corporate Events
HelloFresh Earnings Call: Efficiency Gains Amid Revenue Challenges
Sep 1, 2025
The latest earnings call from HelloFresh painted a mixed picture, reflecting both substantial progress in efficiency and profitability metrics and challenges in revenue and the Ready-to-Eat (RTE) segment. While the company has made strides in its strategic path towards future growth with significant product upgrades, current operational setbacks pose notable challenges. Additionally, currency fluctuations have added complexity to the financial landscape.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.