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HelloFresh SE
(XETRA:HFG)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
€3.00
▲(4.90% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/18/26
The score is held back primarily by weakened profitability with rising leverage and a clearly bearish technical setup (below major moving averages with negative MACD). These are partially offset by still-positive cash generation and an earnings-call backdrop that reconfirms adjusted EBITDA guidance and highlights efficiency progress, but near-term revenue declines and cost headwinds limit upside.
Positive Factors
Structural efficiency gains
The completed efficiency actions should lower the company’s cost base beyond the current period and help fund product investment. Their structural nature could support EBITDA and cash generation if execution completes as planned.
Negative Factors
Persistent revenue contraction
Sustained top-line contraction limits operating leverage and reduces the scale benefits central to HelloFresh’s procurement, production and delivery model. Weak new-customer conversion also makes future growth more dependent on retention and pricing.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Structural efficiency gains
The completed efficiency actions should lower the company’s cost base beyond the current period and help fund product investment. Their structural nature could support EBITDA and cash generation if execution completes as planned.
Read all positive factors
HelloFresh SE (HFG) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)
Market Cap
€404.87M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.34M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.22
Revenue Growth-12.55%
EPS Growth78.82%
CountryDE
Employees21,783
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGrocery Stores
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.23
Shares Outstanding159,000,000
10 Day Avg. Volume1,732,601
30 Day Avg. Volume1,336,828
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.37
Price to Book (P/B)1.43
Price to Sales (P/S)0.14
P/FCF Ratio4.30
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€5.06Price Target Upside77.07% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)0.45
Revenue Forecast (FY)€6.33B
HelloFresh SE Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
HelloFresh SE, a Berlin, Germany-based company established in 2011, specializes in delivering meal kits designed to help customers prepare home-cooked meals using provided recipes. Their extensive offerings include premium and double-portion meal ...
How the Company Makes Money
HelloFresh primarily makes money by selling meal solutions directly to consumers via its online and app-based ordering channels. Its core revenue stream is the sale of meal kits (recipe-based boxes with pre-portioned ingredients) and, in addition,...
HelloFresh SE Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 13, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call emphasizes deliberate, long-term strategic investments and meaningful structural progress (efficiency program, stronger cohort metrics, product and digital enhancements, bond issuance and reconfirmed adjusted EBITDA). However, significant near-term revenue declines (group ~-7.8% CC), ready-to-eat sensitivity to acquisition pullback, higher procurement costs and external disruptions temper the immediate outlook. Management expects H2 operational improvements and has prioritized margin discipline over short-term top-line growth, making the tone balanced between clear long-term positives and short-term execution and macro headwinds.Positive Updates
Efficiency Program Progress
Reached ~85% completion of the previously announced EUR 300 million efficiency program by end of H1 2026, with the remaining ~15% planned for H2; savings are described as permanent structural changes funding product investments.
Negative Updates
Group Revenue Decline
Q2 2026 group revenue was EUR 1.5 billion, declining 7.8% in constant currency year-on-year; management expects constant currency revenue growth to trend toward the bottom end of the full-year range.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Efficiency Program Progress
Reached ~85% completion of the previously announced EUR 300 million efficiency program by end of H1 2026, with the remaining ~15% planned for H2; savings are described as permanent structural changes funding product investments.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reconfirmed the full-year adjusted EBITDA outlook while saying constant‑currency revenue is now trending toward the bottom of the full‑year range and that the back‑to‑school campaign will be the next meaningful read on conversion and marketing efficiency. Q2 group revenue was EUR 1.5bn (‑7.8% CC), group Q2 adjusted EBITDA was EUR 120.6m (7.8% margin), and H1 free cash flow was positive EUR 49.4m; at the midpoint of guidance management still expects full‑year free cash flow to be positive with H2 materially stronger than H2 2025. Key unit metrics: group AOV was EUR 71 (+6.5% CC), meal‑kit AOV was EUR 64.5 (+7.1% CC) with meal‑kit H1 AOV up 5.7% and order rate +4.1% in H1; meal‑kit Q2 adj. EBITDA was EUR 167m (15.1%) and H1 meal‑kit adj. EBITDA EUR 271m (11.7%), while ready‑to‑eat Q2 adj. EBITDA was EUR 13.1m (3%) and H1 RTE adj. EBITDA improved to ‑EUR 13.6m (from ‑EUR 26.4m). Operational and cost context: ~85% of the EUR 300m efficiency program is complete, group contribution margin was 25.2% (‑2.1pp y/y), procurement/cooking costs rose ~2.4pp, marketing spend declined 16.3% YoY to 14.9% of revenue (meal kit marketing 11.6% of revenue; RTE 19.2%), H1 CapEx was EUR 76.7m, and the company issued a EUR 350m bond (5.5% coupon, 2031) to extend maturities; management said at least ~EUR 24m of adjusted EBITDA improvement is needed in H2 to hit the midpoint, driven by further efficiency, contribution‑margin expansion and calibrated marketing.HelloFresh SE Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.36B | 6.76B | 7.66B | 7.60B | 7.61B | 5.99B |
| Gross Profit | 3.56B | 3.93B | 4.80B | 4.92B | 4.99B | 3.95B |
| EBITDA | 288.00M | 236.90M | 303.90M | 329.40M | 393.40M | 487.51M |
| Net Income | -34.80M | -92.60M | -136.40M | 19.40M | 127.00M | 242.81M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.14B | 2.18B | 2.63B | 2.58B | 2.54B | 2.21B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 246.90M | 219.90M | 496.10M | 442.70M | 511.90M | 835.50M |
| Total Debt | 750.70M | 708.50M | 914.30M | 714.20M | 666.20M | 461.70M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.51B | 1.51B | 1.74B | 1.56B | 1.58B | 1.31B |
| Stockholders Equity | 633.50M | 672.70M | 891.70M | 1.02B | 961.70M | 895.70M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 132.30M | 223.90M | 73.20M | 78.00M | -104.10M | 206.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 213.60M | 298.80M | 239.30M | 383.80M | 313.40M | 458.60M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -134.80M | -130.50M | -162.60M | -339.60M | -443.80M | -321.60M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -261.10M | -430.10M | -26.90M | -110.80M | -204.30M | -62.70M |
HelloFresh SE Technical Analysis
Negative
2.86
Price Trends
3.52
Negative
3.89
Negative
4.59
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.22
Positive
27.92
Positive
12.70
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:HFG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.86 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.16, below the 50-day MA of 3.52, and below the 200-day MA of 4.59, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 27.92 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.70 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DE:HFG.
HelloFresh SE Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | €247.46M | 10.36 | 36.00% | ― | 8.79% | 438.95% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
59 Neutral | €5.70B | 64.86 | 3.47% | ― | 23.48% | -63.82% | |
49 Neutral | €404.87M | -12.41 | -5.43% | ― | -12.55% | 78.82% | |
49 Neutral | €1.96B | -165.69 | -1.33% | ― | 4.26% | -366.13% | |
49 Neutral | €11.32B | -14.03 | -40.83% | ― | 11.42% | -34.78% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
DE:HFG
HelloFresh SE
2.86
-4.59
-61.59%
DE:CEC
CECONOMY AG
3.96
-0.49
-10.91%
DE:ZAL
Zalando
24.00
-0.27
-1.11%
DE:DHER
Delivery Hero SE
37.05
15.00
68.03%
DE:WEW
Westwing Group AG
12.80
0.20
1.59%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.