Nordex (NDX1) AI Stock Analysis

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Nordex

(OTC:NDX1)

Rating:64Neutral

Price Target:

€19.50

▲(14.17%Upside)

Nordex's overall stock score is bolstered by strong technical analysis and a positive earnings call. Financial performance shows resilience but requires improvement in operational efficiency and leverage management. Valuation is a concern due to a high P/E ratio, indicating that the stock may be overvalued.

Positive Factors

Free Cash Flow

Free cash flow of €4 million was much stronger than the expected -€50 million, mainly due to working capital and lower capital expenditure.

Order Intake

A record order intake for the quarter has been achieved, indicating strong demand.

Profitability

Nordex is off to a solid start, surprising positively on profitability and free cash flow.

Negative Factors

Sales Disappointment

Nordex's Q1 sales did disappoint, leading to a significant miss on sales expectations.

Sales Performance

Nordex's Q1 sales did disappoint, leading to an 11% miss on sales due to lower installation volumes and timing of projects.

Nordex (NDX1) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)

Market Cap

€4.11B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)538.83K

Price to Earnings (P/E)138.0

Beta (1Y)0.92

Revenue Growth4.58%

EPS GrowthN/A

CountryDE

Employees10,559

SectorIndustrials

Sector Strength84

IndustryIndustrial - Machinery

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.03

Shares Outstanding236,450,360

10 Day Avg. Volume504,256

30 Day Avg. Volume538,832

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.07

Price to Book (P/B)2.77

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio-4.37

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

€19.50

Price Target Upside14.17% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering6

Nordex Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNordex SE, together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and distributes multi-megawatt onshore wind turbines worldwide. It operates through Projects and Services segments. The company provides project development services, as well as acquires rights and creates the infrastructure required to construct wind power systems at suitable locations. It also offers maintenance and remote monitoring services for wind farms, as well as spare parts, and repair and technical enhancement services for existing turbines. The company was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Hamburg, Germany.

How the Company Makes MoneyNordex makes money primarily through the sale of wind turbines and related services. The company's revenue model includes the manufacturing and installation of wind turbines, which are sold to energy companies, utilities, and independent power producers. Nordex also generates income from long-term service contracts that ensure the maintenance and operational efficiency of its installed turbines. Additionally, the company benefits from strategic partnerships and collaborations with other energy providers and technology firms, which help expand its market reach and technological capabilities. Government policies and incentives for renewable energy adoption also play a significant role in driving demand for Nordex's products and services.

Nordex Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 25, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 8.38%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 28, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call presented a strong start to 2025 with significant growth in order intake, improved profitability, and service business expansion. However, there are challenges with revenue decrease and installation delays. Overall, the company remains confident in achieving its guidance and medium-term goals.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Start to 2025

Nordex delivered improved margins and a positive free cash flow in Q1 2025. Total order book grew by 21%, with a turbine order intake of 2.2 gigawatts, up 5% from the previous quarter, and a 12% year-on-year increase in euro value.

Improved Profitability

Total EBITDA rose by 53%, reaching €80 million, translating into a 5.5% EBITDA margin and a positive net income of €8 million, more than the total net income for the full year 2024.

Service Business Growth

Service EBIT increased by 1.7% with a margin of 16.8%. Service revenue grew by 19% to €197 million in Q1 2025, with an order book increase of 37% year-on-year.

Order Book Expansion

Total order book grew to €13.5 billion, with a 12% increase in the turbine order book to €8.2 billion. The service order book reached €5.2 billion, reflecting expansion over the past 2 years.

Strategic Market Developments

Positive developments in Europe, especially Germany, where 12 to 14 gigawatts are expected to be auctioned in 2025. No expected material impact from U.S. tariff discussions on financial performance.

Negative Updates

Revenue Decrease

Sales slightly above €1.4 billion compared to €1.6 billion in the previous year, mainly due to low installation levels and timing effects on production.

Installation Delays

Installations slightly over 1 gigawatt, down 5% year-on-year, due to customer delays. Despite this, a positive free cash flow of €4 million was achieved.

High Non-Allocated Costs

Non-allocated costs stood at €104 million, the highest Q1 level in recent history, with no specific breakdown provided.

Company Guidance

During the Nordex SE Q1 2025 Results Conference Call, the company reported a strong beginning to the year with a total order book growth of 21% and a turbine order intake of 2.2 gigawatts, reflecting a 5% increase and a 12% year-on-year rise in euro value. The firm's total EBITDA for the first quarter surged by 53%, achieving €80 million with an EBITDA margin of 5.5% and a net income of €8 million. The service EBIT increased by 1.7%, reaching a margin of 16.8%, and the service revenue grew by 19% to €197 million. Despite initial softness in installations, Nordex managed a positive free cash flow of €4 million and maintains confidence in achieving positive free cash flow for the full year 2025. The company continues to anticipate achieving its medium-term EBITDA margin target of 8%, driven by strategic developments in Europe, especially Germany, and remains unaffected by U.S. tariff changes.

Nordex Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Nordex has shown resilience in improving its financial performance, with notable progress in profitability and cash flow generation. Revenue growth is strong, and operational efficiency is gradually improving. The balance sheet is stable, though attention to leverage is necessary. Overall, the company is on a positive trajectory with a need for continued focus on margin improvement and debt management.

Income Statement

Neutral

The company has shown a positive trend in revenue growth, with the most recent TTM revenue increasing by 10.7% from 2023 to 2024. Gross profit margin improved significantly from 2022 to 2024, though it declined in the latest TTM period. Net income turned positive in the TTM period, indicating improved profitability. However, margins such as EBIT and EBITDA remain relatively low, pointing to challenges in operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The company has maintained a stable balance sheet with an improving equity position. The debt-to-equity ratio is manageable, and the equity ratio indicates moderate financial stability. However, the overall leverage has been a concern in previous years, and the recent improvement in net debt position is a positive sign.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cash flow from operations has improved markedly, with a substantial increase in free cash flow in the TTM period. The company has managed capital expenditures well, contributing to positive free cash flow growth. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, indicating solid cash generation relative to net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	7.16B	7.30B	6.49B	5.69B	5.44B	4.65B
Gross Profit	1.16B	1.53B	127.81M	486.05M	826.96M	547.36M
EBITDA	343.13M	313.32M	17.16M	-241.65M	60.06M	100.11M
Net Income	29.82M	8.84M	-302.83M	-497.76M	-230.16M	-129.71M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.64B	5.63B	5.42B	4.76B	4.11B	4.41B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.13B	1.17B	925.92M	662.06M	792.12M	793.32M
Total Debt	540.01M	500.56M	475.07M	581.89M	487.00M	919.83M
Total Liabilities	4.64B	4.63B	4.44B	3.88B	3.05B	3.64B
Stockholders Equity	988.31M	990.65M	976.60M	878.06M	1.06B	773.53M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	503.18M	265.56M	28.32M	-555.46M	-42.09M	-516.06M
Operating Cash Flow	658.14M	429.75M	161.20M	-350.09M	127.56M	-352.20M
Investing Cash Flow	-129.77M	-159.08M	-139.68M	-163.81M	-152.09M	231.82M
Financing Cash Flow	-39.31M	-37.88M	285.66M	345.53M	62.34M	405.80M

Nordex Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price17.08

Price Trends

50DMA

17.05

Positive

100DMA

15.42

Positive

200DMA

13.97

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.09

Positive

RSI

47.61

Neutral

STOCH

26.15

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:NDX1, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 17.08 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.54, above the 50-day MA of 17.05, and above the 200-day MA of 13.97, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DE:NDX1.

Nordex Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
KRN	77 Outperform	€4.25B	14.83	15.25%	1.89%	14.42%	26.41%
G1A	75 Outperform	€9.49B	25.16	16.56%	1.68%	1.79%	0.06%
DUE	74 Outperform	€1.54B	14.80	4.78%	2.69%	-10.85%	-3.64%
JUN3	72 Outperform	€3.99B	13.54	12.41%	2.08%	-2.78%	-3.44%
ENR	71 Outperform	$73.01B	340.21	1.79%	―	17.17%	―
Sector *	68 Neutral	$2.47B	13.06	7.40%	4.69%	-0.87%	8.24%
NDX1	64 Neutral	€4.11B	137.99	3.02%	―	4.58%	―

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

DE:NDX1

Nordex

17.40

5.42

45.24%

DE:G1A

GEA Group AG

58.75

20.08

51.93%

DE:DUE

Durr AG

22.30

2.99

15.47%

DE:JUN3

Jungheinrich

39.10

8.68

28.52%

DE:KRN

Krones AG

137.00

20.57

17.67%

DE:ENR

Siemens Energy

92.40

67.76

275.00%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 05, 2025