Nabors Industries (NBI1) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

For the fourth quarter, Nabors expects international drilling rig count to average between 92 and 93 and exit at 92, with average daily gross margin at approximately $19,500; Lower 48 rig count to average approximately 75 and reach 76 to 77 rigs operating at year-end, with approximately 95% utilization and daily adjusted gross margin between $14,500 and $14,700; Alaska and U.S. offshore combined EBITDA of approximately $12 million; Drilling Solutions EBITDA growth of 5% to approximately $46 million; Rig Technologies EBITDA up $3 million to approximately $8 million; capital expenditures of $250 million-$260 million, including $140 million-$150 million for SANAD newbuild and approximately $90 million for the fifth tranche; and consolidated adjusted free cash flow of $60 million-$70 million, including approximately $20 million of cash consumption by SANAD. Full-year guidance is consolidated capital spending of $710 million-$720 million, including $295 million-$305 million for the SANAD newbuild program, EBITDA of approximately $930 million, second half EBITDA approximately 18% above the first half, an annualized run rate of $1 billion heading into 2027, and adjusted free cash flow in the $100 million-$110 million range, including approximately $20 million of cash consumption by SANAD; cash interest expense in 2027 is expected to be at least $50 million below 2025, with approximately $30 million of the reduction already realized in 2026, and the net leverage target remains approximately one times.