Mercury NZ (MRY) AI Stock Analysis

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Mercury NZ

(Frankfurt:MRY)

Rating:―N/A

Action:N/A

Date:―

No summary available

Positive Factors

Renewable generation and earnings growthHigher renewable output from newly commissioned projects is driving a substantial earnings rebound and expanding Mercury’s generation base. FY27 guidance remains above FY26, while the raised FY30 EBITDAF floor indicates management expects the benefits of capacity growth to persist.

Negative Factors

Revenue softness and earnings volatilityThe sharp profit recovery has not yet translated into consistent top-line growth, and historical margin swings show that earnings remain sensitive to operating conditions. Revenue softness and uneven profitability make the durability of the rebound less certain over the medium term.

Mercury NZ (MRY) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)

Market Cap: EUR 5.56B
Dividend Yield: 5.01%
Average Volume (3M): 875
Price to Earnings (P/E): 30.2
Beta (1Y): -0.04
Revenue Growth: -14.94%
EPS Growth: ―
Country: Germany
Employees: 1,301
Sector: Utilities
Sector Strength: 66
Industry: Renewable Utilities

Mercury NZ Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mercury NZ Limited is a prominent New Zealand energy provider focused on the generation, wholesale, and retail sale of electricity, alongside other related ventures. The company's operations are divided into distinct Generation/Wholesale, Retail, and...

Mercury NZ Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 16, 2026(Q4-2026)|% Change Since:3.82%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 22, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call presents a broadly positive operational and financial performance: strong FY '26 EBITDAF (+36%), material generation growth (+15%), disciplined OpEx management, delivery of multiple projects on time and on budget, a strengthened balance sheet (~2.0x net debt/EBITDAF) and an increased dividend (FY '26 +13%). Management provided constructive FY '27 guidance and lifted the FY '30 lower EBITDAF target, while preserving capital discipline. Key risks include hydrology/El Niño uncertainty, some non‑recurring elements in cost savings, timing/FID and transmission constraints for future growth (notably data-center driven demand) and a drilling program whose outcomes will only become clear next year. Overall, highlights significantly outweigh the lowlights, indicating confidence in execution and a positive near- to medium-term outlook.

Positive Updates

Strong EBITDAF Growth

FY '26 EBITDAF increased 36% year-on-year to $1,068m, driven primarily by higher renewable generation and cost discipline; FY '27 guidance set at $1,075m and FY '30 lower-end guidance raised to $1.2bn (range $1.2bn–$1.25bn).

Negative Updates

Non-structural Elements in Cost Reductions

Approximately $10m of maintenance reduction included an $8m one-off decline in non-recurring geothermal well repairs, indicating not all FY '26 OpEx reductions are fully structural.

Company Guidance

Mercury guided FY27 EBITDAF of $1,075m (from a reported FY26 EBITDAF of $1,068m, up 36% on FY25; FY26 normalized base ~$1,050m), FY27 ordinary dividend of $0.29/share (FY26 $0.27, +13%; 18 consecutive years of growth) and FY27 hydro generation of 4.1 TWh with stay‑in‑business CapEx of $150m; it raised the FY30 EBITDAF floor to $1.2bn (range $1.2–1.25bn) based on delivered and near‑term projects, assuming a long‑term price of $120–$130/MWh (real FY27$). Key metrics underpinning the guidance include FY26 generation of 9.1 TWh (+15%), ~1.1 TWh of new generation added this year, 87% of FY30 generation contracted, OpEx held at the $370m target (down $26m vs FY25, ~10% real), $710m reinvested (66% of FY26 EBITDAF), net debt/EBITDAF ~2.0x (peak leverage ~2.6x before declining), $610m liquidity headroom, a $75m geothermal appraisal drilling program, a 3.5 TWh by‑2030 build target (including PKH FID: 192 MW, ~$506m capex, $2.6m/MW, first generation mid‑2028), and safety and customer stats (TRIFR 0.31; ~41% of customers have ≥2 products; churn ~13.7%).

Mercury NZ Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (66)

Financial Indicators

DE:MRY against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NZ:VCT	69Neutral	NZD 4.55B	18.96	6.64%	5.72%	8.27%	47.72%
Sector *	66Neutral	$17.65B	18.10	5.60%	3.62%	6.62%	11.55%
NZ:MEL	64Neutral	NZD 14.67B	111.07	1.38%	4.71%	-19.65%	―
NZ:CEN	63Neutral	NZD 9.23B	20.31	8.71%	5.27%	-6.33%	-0.10%
NZ:IFT	61Neutral	NZD 12.55B	22.19	7.31%	1.65%	-8.97%	―
NZ:GNE	57Neutral	NZD 3.15B	30.52	2.78%	7.27%	-24.15%	-49.61%

* Utilities Sector Average

Performance Comparison

DE:MRY and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
DE:MRY	Mercury NZ Ltd.	3.18	0.20	6.53%
NZ:CEN	Contact Energy Limited	8.53	-0.45	-5.04%
NZ:IFT	Infratil Limited	12.52	0.39	3.25%
NZ:MEL	Meridian Energy Limited	5.52	-0.14	-2.54%
NZ:VCT	Vector	4.55	-0.19	-4.05%
NZ:GNE	Genesis Energy Limited	2.39	0.07	3.06%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Mercury NZ AI Stock Analysis