Louisiana-Pacific (LP3) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Management guided Q3 2026 Siding revenue of $460–$470 million (the low end would tie the prior record) and Siding EBITDA of $110–$120 million (~25% margin), affirmed prior full‑year Siding revenue/EBITDA/margin guidance, and said they expect Siding year‑over‑year volume and revenue growth in Q3 driven mainly by higher selling prices and modest volume gains; for OSB they forecast Q3 EBITDA of about negative $45 million and full‑year OSB EBITDA of roughly negative $120 million assuming current prices hold (OSB prices were noted as roughly $12 lower since the May call and about $15 below the guidance algorithm at quarter‑end). They reduced 2026 CapEx to about $320 million (a $70 million cut from prior guidance), with Siding representing roughly 75% of total CapEx and essentially all growth CapEx; Q2 operating cash flow was $140 million, Q2 CapEx was $59 million, $21 million was returned to shareholders, cash on hand was $228 million and total liquidity was just under $1 billion (including a $750 million undrawn revolver). Management also reiterated ExpertFinish capacity additions — Green Bay ramping, ~20 million feet coming at Bath later this year, and a new North Branch painting facility underway — to support the expected Siding recovery.