Geo Group (GEG) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

For the fourth quarter of 2026, GEO increased GAAP net income guidance to a range of $591 million to $595.5 million, adjusted net income guidance to a range of $46 million to $51 million, or a range of $0.35 to $0.39 per diluted share, on quarterly revenue of $777 million to $827 million, and adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $149 million to $154 million; for the full year 2026, it increased GAAP net income guidance to a range of $726.3 million to $730.5 million and adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $568 million to $573 million, while providing full year 2027 adjusted net income guidance of a range of $185 million to $190 million, a range of $1.40 to $1.44 per diluted share, on annual revenues of $2.975 billion to $3.025 billion, based on an effective tax rate of approximately 28% inclusive of known discrete items; total unreimbursed capital expenditures for the full year 2026 are expected to be between $140 million and $150 million, with normal unreimbursed CapEx expected to decline to approximately $100 million in 2027, and 2027 potential upside includes the expected activation of 4 new ICE facilities, transition of the 1.88 thousand-bed Graceville facility and 985-bed Bay facility on 07/01/2027, additional ISAP, secured transportation and skip tracing revenue, and possible sales before the end of 2026 of up to 4 additional facilities.