Geo Group stock analysis
Geo Group (GEG) Stock Price & Analysis
GEG Stock Chart & Stats
- Day’s Range
- EUR 22.32 - EUR 24.87
- 52-Week Range
- EUR 10.71 - EUR 29.11
- Previous Close
- EUR 22.55
- Volume
- N/A
- Average Volume (3M)
- 58
- Market Cap
- EUR 3.26B
- Enterprise Value
- EUR 5.49B
- Total Cash (Recent Filing)
- EUR 215.96M
- Total Debt (Recent Filing)
- EUR 1.66B
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 23.9
- Beta
- 0.15
- Next Earnings
- Feb 18, 2027 (Est.)
- EPS Estimate
- 0.33
- Next Dividend Ex-Date
- N/A
- Dividend Yield
- N/A
Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
Contracted Revenue Growth
The new ICE awards expand GEO’s contracted revenue base across approximately 4.8 thousand beds and provide multi-year visibility. Their staggered activations, together with additional facility transitions, can support durable growth beyond the current reporting period.
Operating Performance
Record quarterly revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted net income indicate that current contract activations are translating into meaningful operating scale. If execution continues, stronger earnings capacity can support reinvestment, debt reduction, and resilient performance over coming quarters.
Improved Liquidity And Leverage
Using asset-sale proceeds to redeem $650 million of secured notes materially improved GEO’s financing profile. Approximately $600 million of liquidity and roughly 1x net leverage provide greater flexibility to fund activations, manage volatility, and pursue capital allocation priorities.
Bears Say
Meaningful Leverage
Although leverage has improved substantially from 2021, debt remains meaningful relative to equity and can constrain financial flexibility. Interest obligations and refinancing needs could become more burdensome if facility utilization, contract economics, or government demand weaken.
Uneven Cash Conversion
Recent operating cash generation is healthy, but the history of negative free cash flow despite positive earnings shows that cash conversion is not consistently predictable. Uneven conversion can limit internally funded growth and complicate debt reduction or shareholder returns.
Government And Policy Dependence
GEO’s revenue is concentrated in government contracts, so budgeting priorities, detention policy, contract awards, renewals, and facility utilization directly affect demand. This dependence can make long-term revenue visibility less controllable than in a diversified commercial customer base.
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Geo Group Stock Smart Score
Company Description
Geo Group
The GEO Group, Inc. is dedicated to the operation, leasing, and ownership of secure correctional centers, administrative processing hubs, and community reentry facilities situated in the United States, Australia, and South Africa. The company's operations are segmented into four main areas: U.S. Secure Services, Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services, Reentry Services, and International Services. GEO Group provides a comprehensive suite of services. This includes offering counseling, educational programs, and treatment for alcohol and drug dependency within its various locations. It also leverages compliance technologies for monitoring services and implements empirically supported supervision and rehabilitation programs for individuals on parole, probation, or awaiting trial in a community setting. The firm's secure facility management services span security protocols, administrative tasks, rehabilitative initiatives, educational opportunities, and food provision. Its reentry services involve overseeing individuals in community-based programs and specialized centers, furnishing temporary housing, structured programming, employment assistance, and other essential support. Furthermore, GEO Group delivers monitoring and reporting solutions aimed at enhancing the participation of non-detained foreign nationals in the immigration court system. Additional services include secure transportation. Under its "GEO Continuum of Care" platform, the company offers extensive rehabilitation services, encompassing evidence-based cognitive behavioral therapy, post-release support, and academic and vocational training focused on life skills and therapeutic interventions. Beyond its operational roles, GEO Group also develops, designs, constructs, and finances new facilities, often under contract. Established in 1984, The GEO Group, Inc. maintains its corporate headquarters in Boca Raton, Florida.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Security & Protection Services
- CEO
- George C. Zoley
- Employees
- 18,000
- Website
- www.geogroup.com
- Address
- 4955 Technology Way, Boca Raton, FL, 33431, US
Geo Group (GEG) Earnings & Revenues
GEG Company Deck
GEG Earnings Call
Earnings Call SentimentPositive
The call was strongly positive overall. GEO reported record quarterly revenue and adjusted EBITDA, substantial year-over-year growth in adjusted net income, significant new ICE contracts, increased guidance, improved liquidity and leverage, and an expanded share repurchase authorization. The main negative items were the year-over-year decline in reported GAAP net income due to the prior-year asset-sale gain, a decline in nonresidential services revenue, higher operating and G&A expenses, ISAP performance below earlier expectations, and uncertainty around potential additional facility sales. The highlights significantly outweighed the lowlights.
View all DE:GEG earnings summariesGEG Stock 12 Month Forecast
Average Price Target
Technical Analysis
Overall Consensus
| Indicator | Bullish | Neutral | Bearish |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall Consensus | 9 | 6 | 7 |
| Technical Analysis | 3 | 6 | 1 |
| Moving Averages | 6 | 0 | 6 |
