Mineral Resources Limited (F5J) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

MinRes guided FY‑27 mining services volumes of 370–390 million tonnes (↑9–14% vs FY‑26), driven by running Onslow Iron beyond nameplate (Onslow finished FY‑26 at a ~38 Mt run rate and transshippers 6–7 lift installed port capacity towards ~40 Mt), the Bald Hill restart (targeting nameplate ~140 kt SC6 by the Dec quarter), increased mining at Mt Marion (investments to add ~100 kt and a new float plant/underground development) and growth in the external order book; Wodgina FY‑27 sales are guided to 360–390 kt SC6 (↑14–23%) with FOB costs of ~$640–$710/t (↓4–13%). FY‑27 capital guidance is $1.425 billion gross / $1.27 billion net (Mt Marion and Wodgina shown at 50% = $475m), sustaining CapEx ~$815m for FY‑27 (with a forward run‑rate of $700–750m), and diesel is assumed at ~$1.25/L; balance sheet priorities remain (minimum liquidity $1.0bn), with FY‑26 net debt down $1.1bn to $4.3bn (net debt/underlying EBITDA 1.7x), liquidity $2.4bn (cash $1.6bn + $800m undrawn RCF), a declared fully franked dividend of $0.83/share (20% payout of underlying NPAT of $822m), expected POSCO proceeds of ~US$765m (pro‑forma net debt ~A$3.2bn, leverage ~1.2x), and ongoing focus on low‑risk brownfield growth while maintaining ~70% of the Mining Services order book on >15‑year indexed contracts.