DHL Group (DHL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €44.98B
• Dividend Yield: 4.72%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.15M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.23
• Revenue Growth: 4.50%
• EPS Growth: -1.85%
• Country: DE
• Employees: 580,580
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics
• EPS (TTM): 0.68
• Shares Outstanding: 1,200,000,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,595,085
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,147,597
• PEG Ratio: 7.24
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.81
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.28
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €45.19
• Price Target Upside: 15.84% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14

DHL Group's stock score reflects a well-rounded financial performance with steady revenue growth and effective cost management. The technical indicators suggest a neutral trend with some caution due to potential overbought conditions. The valuation is attractive, with a reasonable P/E ratio and a strong dividend yield. While the financial metrics are robust, attention should be paid to improving profit margins and monitoring cash flow trends.

Positive Factors

Cost Management and Efficiency

Management confirms the EBIT improvement programme 'Fit for Growth', which aims to save over €1bn in costs through digitalisation and process optimisation.

Revenue Growth Ambition

The company confirms its ambition to grow revenue by 50% by 2030 with annual growth expected to surpass GDP growth.

Negative Factors

B2B Demand Challenges

B2B volumes have not seen better development into Q4, suggesting an incremental worsening in demand compared to trends experienced in earlier quarters.

Freight Forwarding Division Performance

The freight forwarding division DGFF underperformed, with EBIT falling 4.2% below expectations.

DHL Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

DHL Group (DHL) is a global leader in the logistics industry, providing a comprehensive range of services in international express, freight transportation, e-commerce, and supply chain management. The company operates in various sectors, including express delivery, freight forwarding, and supply chain solutions, serving businesses and consumers worldwide with its extensive network and expertise in logistics and transportation.

How the Company Makes Money

DHL Group makes money through its diversified portfolio of logistics services. Its primary revenue streams include express delivery services, where it charges fees for transporting parcels and documents quickly across the globe. The freight forwarding segment generates income by managing and coordinating the transportation of goods via air, ocean, and road freight. Additionally, DHL earns revenue from its supply chain solutions by offering integrated logistics management services, including warehousing, distribution, and value-added services tailored to specific industry needs. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and collaborations with e-commerce platforms, enhancing its service offerings and expanding its customer base. Key factors contributing to DHL's earnings include its global network, technological advancements in logistics, and its ability to adapt to market demands, such as the growing need for sustainable and efficient supply chain solutions.

DHL Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

DHL Group exhibits a strong financial position with steady revenue growth and effective operational efficiency. The debt levels are well-managed, and the company maintains good profitability metrics. Cash flow generation is strong, though recent free cash flow has decreased, which may require monitoring. Overall, DHL Group is in a stable financial position but should focus on enhancing profit margins and free cash flow growth.

Income Statement

DHL Group's revenue showed healthy growth from 2023 to TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with a slight increase of 0.66%. Despite a decline from 2022 to 2023, the company has managed to stabilize its revenue. The gross profit margin stands at 15.74% for TTM, indicating effective cost management. However, the net profit margin remained modest at 3.99%, showing room for improvement in profitability. The EBIT margin of 6.96% and EBITDA margin of 12.73% reflect stable operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The debt-to-equity ratio is 1.12, showing a balanced leverage position. Return on equity is calculated at 14.22%, indicating solid profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio of 33.16% depicts a reasonable degree of financial stability, though there is potential risk from significant liabilities.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow to net income ratio is a robust 2.49, signaling strong cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.24, suggesting adequate cash flow to support future investments. However, the free cash flow growth rate is negative, indicating a decrease in free cash flow from previous periods.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
84.74B	84.19B	81.76B	94.44B	81.75B	66.81B
	Gross Profit
13.34B	13.15B	13.10B	16.55B	15.44B	11.77B
	EBIT
5.90B	5.89B	6.34B	8.44B	7.62B	4.85B
	EBITDA
10.90B	10.81B	10.81B	12.73B	11.69B	8.54B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
3.38B	3.33B	3.68B	5.36B	5.05B	2.98B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
7.25B	2.19B	4.26B	3.19B	4.71B	5.80B
	Total Assets
71.63B	69.88B	66.83B	68.28B	63.59B	55.31B
	Total Debt
26.55B	22.44B	20.83B	20.22B	19.02B	18.35B
	Net Debt
20.26B	20.30B	17.18B	18.39B	17.39B	13.87B
	Total Liabilities
47.44B	45.66B	43.94B	44.58B	44.09B	41.23B
	Stockholders Equity
23.75B	23.79B	22.48B	23.24B	19.04B	13.78B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
4.18B	5.79B	5.88B	7.05B	6.26B	4.78B
	Operating Cash Flow
8.40B	8.72B	9.26B	10.96B	9.99B	7.70B
	Investing Cash Flow
-2.58B	-2.39B	-2.18B	-3.18B	-4.82B	-3.64B
	Financing Cash Flow
-4.06B	-6.35B	-6.90B	-7.41B	-6.22B	-2.25B

DHL Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 39.01
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:DHL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 39.01 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.14, above the 50-day MA of 37.01, and above the 200-day MA of 35.36, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.80 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.41 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DE:DHL.

DHL Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DTE	77 Outperform	€157.56B	13.96	19.60%	2.84%	4.90%	176.57%
DHL	76 Outperform	€44.98B	13.44	14.23%	4.72%	4.50%	-1.85%
FRA	67 Neutral	€5.31B	11.79	9.85%	―	10.66%	14.62%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$4.39B	12.06	5.17%	249.63%	4.03%	-11.04%
CON	61 Neutral	$14.93B	11.58	10.07%	3.14%	-14.83%	78.73%
BAS	59 Neutral	€39.74B	53.78	2.02%	7.62%	-2.04%	2258.97%
BAYN	56 Neutral	€21.78B	―	-9.56%	0.48%	-0.92%	-4.30%