Check Point (CPW) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Management expects Q3 to represent the trough, with sequential improvement beginning in Q4 and product revenue to begin improving in the fourth quarter and beyond, although the recovery is expected to be more gradual and a measured recovery. Q4 revenue guidance is between $720 million to $770 million, with a midpoint of $745 million, representing a flat year-over-year; subscription revenues are expected to be between $351 million-$362 million, non-GAAP EPS between $2.71-$2.83, GAAP EPS $0.70 less, and adjusted free cash flow between $260 million and $290 million. Updated full-year guidance is total revenues between $2.732 billion-$2.782 billion, subscription revenues between $1.345 billion-$1.356 billion, non-GAAP EPS between $10.25-$10.37, GAAP EPS $2.74 less, and adjusted free cash flow between $1.136 billion to $1.166 billion. Management expects subscription growth to accelerate back in H1 2027, annual subscription next year in 2027 to cross the $1.5 billion, and said the 12%-20% firewall-product pricing increase could contribute up to three points to total revenue growth if fully realized, while the incremental FX impact in 2027 could reach up to $50 million incremental in 2027.