Carrefour SA (CAR1) AI Stock Analysis

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Carrefour SA

(Frankfurt:CAR1)

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Positive Factors

Omnichannel and format diversityCarrefour’s broad store-format portfolio and omnichannel grocery capabilities serve multiple shopping missions and customer groups. This diversification can support resilience across changing consumer preferences, while combining physical locations with digital channels creates several durable routes to maintain customer access and sales.

Negative Factors

Revenue contractionThe sharp 2025 revenue decline interrupts the prior growth pattern and indicates that Carrefour’s sales base faced meaningful pressure. Sustained contraction would reduce operating leverage, weaken the company’s ability to absorb fixed retail costs, and make recovery in earnings more dependent on efficiency or mix improvements.

Carrefour SA (CAR1) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)

Market Cap: EUR 11.07B
Dividend Yield: 8.78%
Average Volume (3M): 1,338
Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.4
Beta (1Y): 0.40
Revenue Growth: -7.78%
EPS Growth: 125.00%
Country: Germany
Employees: 298,604
Sector: Consumer Defensive
Sector Strength: 62
Industry: Grocery Stores

Carrefour SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Carrefour S.A., a global retail giant established in Massy, France, in 1959, manages a comprehensive network of stores and digital channels across various countries, including France, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Poland, Romania, Brazil, Argentina, and Tai...

Carrefour SA Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 17, 2026(Q4-2025)|% Change Since:-6.09%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 17, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call presented a broadly constructive operational and financial picture: strong execution in France (margin milestone and market-share gains) and Spain (top-line and margin expansion), meaningful cost savings (EUR 1.1bn) and solid cash generation (net free cash flow ≈ EUR 1.565bn ex-Italy). Management confirmed controlled Cora & Match integration, tangible retail and e‑commerce wins in Latin America, and a shareholder-friendly dividend policy. Offsets included short-term dilution from Cora & Match (EUR 120m), notable FX and Argentina headwinds (~EUR 100m each), the Italy exit impact (net discontinued loss EUR 657m), a decline in gross margin (-22 bps) and stable EBITDA (no growth). Management expressed confidence for 2026 and reiterated targets (including EUR 130m synergies by 2027 and a EUR 1.7bn free cash flow ambition), positioning the group to improve underlying performance. Overall, positives in execution, cost discipline and cash generation slightly outweigh near-term headwinds and one-off impacts.

Positive Updates

France — Margin Milestone and Market Share Gain

Carrefour France core operating margin reached 3.0% (milestone), legacy recurring operating income grew 11.3% in 2025 and margin expanded by 31 basis points. Group market share in France rose to 22% (highest since 2015). Customer satisfaction improved (NPS +3 points in Q4) and Carrefour opened a record 456 new convenience stores in 2025.

Negative Updates

Cora & Match — Short-Term Dilutive Impact

Cora & Match posted a recurring operating loss of EUR 120 million in 2025, which includes EUR 95 million of non-recurring integration costs. Excluding those costs, Cora & Match still showed a negative recurring operating income (~EUR 25 million) in 2025 and compression of gross margin versus historical levels due to price alignment and increased promotions.

Company Guidance

Management reiterated confident 2026 guidance and quantified targets: a net free cash flow target of €1.7bn for 2026 (versus €1.565bn in 2025 excluding Italy), supported by a €75m benefit from Brazilian debt refinancing and a cost‑savings program already delivering €1.1bn pa (ex‑Italy); they confirmed €130m of Cora & Match synergies by 2027 (Cora integration in 2025: €145m OpEx vs €150m expected, €85m CapEx vs €100m expected, €95m non‑recurring costs; Cora ROI −€120m in 2025 or −€25m ex‑one‑offs) and said no further integration costs are expected in 2026. Capital allocation guidance: propose ordinary dividend €0.97/sh (+5.4% y/y) and, subject to Romania closing (EV €823m, 4.8x 2025 EBITDA; Romania FY25 margin 1%, NFF −€53m), a special €150m (€0.21/sh) for a total €1.18/sh (~8.3% cash yield on 31‑Dec‑2025 price). Other reference metrics cited on the call include FY25 recurring operating income €2.158bn (2.6% of net sales), core recurring margin 2.9% (France core 3%), adjusted EPS €1.60 and net debt ~€4bn; more 2026 detail to be provided with tomorrow’s strategic plan.

Carrefour SA Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

DE:CAR1 against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WMK	70Outperform	$2.04B	19.77	7.37%	1.68%	4.06%	6.87%
SFM	63Neutral	$4.51B	9.63	33.82%	―	5.25%	0.53%
Sector *	62Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
GO	56Neutral	$1.39B	-3.40	-44.12%	―	3.97%	-8190.34%
ACI	54Neutral	$6.21B	-433.67	-2.78%	5.07%	2.26%	-106.73%
KR	46Neutral	$40.51B	37.56	17.17%	2.07%	1.58%	-53.21%

* Consumer Defensive Sector Average

Performance Comparison

DE:CAR1 and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
DE:CAR1	Carrefour	2.62	0.27	11.35%
KR	Kroger Company	69.49	4.98	7.72%
WMK	Weis Markets	80.86	15.97	24.61%
SFM	Sprouts Farmers Market	50.56	-31.13	-38.11%
GO	Grocery Outlet Holding	13.12	1.93	17.25%
ACI	Albertsons Companies, Inc.	13.01	-4.14	-24.13%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Carrefour SA AI Stock Analysis