BNP Paribas (BNPH) Q2 2026 Earnings Report

The call presented a predominantly positive operational and financial picture: strong top‑line growth (group revenues +12%), improved profitability metrics (operating income +~16%), a meaningful capital uplift (CET1 at 13% and EUR 858m AGI/Ageas capital gain), and upgraded efficiency ambitions. These positives were balanced against near‑term headwinds: sizable restructuring charges tied to AXA IM, volatility in the Corporate Center, used‑car resale pressure at Arval, slower asset management inflows quarter‑to‑quarter, and execution risk on ambitious cost targets. Management has concrete plans to deploy excess capital, improve cost efficiency, and pursue strategic integrations, and it characterized most challenges as manageable and already addressed in provisioning and planning.

BNP Paribas reconfirmed its ’26 and ’28 trajectories: management expects double‑digit earnings/EPS CAGR (>10% over 2025–28) with return on tangible equity to exceed 13% in 2028 (15% target by 2030) and cost/income to fall below 56% in 2028 and toward ~50% by 2030 (≈2 percentage points p.a. improvement from 2027). Q2 momentum underpins this — group revenues +12% ( +10.4% at constant scope/exch.), jaws +3.7pp at constant scope (+1.6pp reported), CIB +13% (Global Markets +17%, Equity & Prime +43%), CPBS +5%, CPB +9%, IPS +27% (≈+8% organic) — and cost discipline will be amplified by raising annual efficiency targets from €700m to €1bn (addressable cost base €15bn; ~80% of IT savings identified; ~25% of savings to be delivered in 2027). Prudential guidance: CET1 13% (up 20bps this quarter), LCR 149% (operating around 130–135%), cost of risk <40bps for 2026 (Q2: 39bps with €95m added to S2 provisions), Corporate Center gross operating loss revised to -€1.2bn (vs -€1.4bn) with ~€800m restructuring this year, Athlon to consume ~13bps CET1 in Q3 (offset by BMCI divestment in Q4), interim dividend €3.23 (50% of H1 ’26 EPS) and a minimum 60% payout policy from ’27 (50% dividend + 10% buyback) with the Board to consider annual distributions of excess capital above the 13% CET1 target.