Akebia Therapeutics (AX9) AI Stock Analysis

Akebia Therapeutics

(Frankfurt:AX9)

Rating:―N/A

Action:N/A

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Positive Factors

Strong Gross MarginA gross margin near 79% indicates favorable product-level economics and leaves meaningful capacity to support commercial investment. This provides a stronger foundation for future operating leverage, although the benefit depends on Akebia converting gross profit into sustainable operating profitability.

Negative Factors

Persistent Operating LossesThe return to negative EBIT and EBITDA, combined with a recent revenue decline, shows that improved gross profitability has not yet translated into consistent earnings power. Continued operating losses can constrain reinvestment and make future financial performance more dependent on successful revenue stabilization.

Akebia Therapeutics (AX9) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)

Market Cap: EUR 195.78M
Dividend Yield: ―
Average Volume (3M): ―
Price to Earnings (P/E): -6.5
Beta (1Y): 1.09
Revenue Growth: 0.30%
EPS Growth: 40.06%
Country: Germany
Employees: 194
Sector: Healthcare
Sector Strength: 51
Industry: Biotechnology

Akebia Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Akebia Therapeutics, Inc., established in 2007 and headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, is a biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering and commercializing therapies for patients suffering from kidney diseases. The firm's leading experime...

Akebia Therapeutics Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026(Q1-2026)|% Change Since:-46.44%|Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026

Earnings Call SentimentNeutral

The call highlights strong commercial momentum for Vafseo (32% revenue growth, ~60% patient growth quarter-over-quarter, higher prescriber engagement and improved adherence under observed dosing) and meaningful pipeline progress with supportive clinical data and upcoming readouts. However, legacy product Auryxia faces notable generic-driven revenue decline (≈-17%), the company swung to a net loss in the quarter, experienced sizable inventory write-downs and higher operating expenses, and cash declined q/q. While the launch and clinical developments are encouraging and provide a clear growth narrative, the near-term financial headwinds and competitive/enrollment risks temper the outlook.

Positive Updates

Strong Vafseo Quarterly Revenue Growth

Vafseo net product revenues were $15.8M in Q1 2026 versus $12.0M in Q1 2025, a 32% year-over-year increase and the highest quarter of Vafseo revenue to date.

Negative Updates

Overall Revenue Decline

Total revenues were $53.5M in Q1 2026 versus $57.3M in Q1 2025, a decline of $3.8M or approximately -6.6% year-over-year, driven by lower Auryxia revenues despite higher Vafseo sales.

Company Guidance

Akebia’s call guided to continued commercial and pipeline execution: Q1’26 total revenues were $53.5M with Vafseo net product revenue of $15.8M (highest quarter-to-date; +32% YoY from $12.0M) and Auryxia $36.2M (down from $43.8M), license/collab revenues $1.6M; Vafseo patients grew to nearly 7,500 (≈60% QoQ), ~1,025 prescribers (+28% vs Q4’25) with ~30% from non‑USRC dialysis organizations, ~2/3 of patients on 3x/week dosing and first‑refill adherence ≈86% (85–90% range); cash was $162.6M (vs $184.8M 12/31/25) and expected to fund operations ≥2 years; company expects TDAPA opportunity for the balance of 2026 and bundle entry planning for 2027, anticipates Auryxia revenues to decline in 2026, and reiterated pipeline milestones—VOCAL topline by year‑end 2026, VOICE early 2027, AKB‑9090 Phase I (up to 70 participants) topline early 2027, praliciguat Phase II targeting ~60 patients, and AKB‑097 Phase II basket to start H2’26 with initial data in 2027.

Akebia Therapeutics Risk Analysis

Akebia Therapeutics disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Akebia Therapeutics reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

1 New Risk

1.If we fail to develop or maintain proper and effective internal control over financial reporting, our ability to produce accurate and timely financial statements could be impaired, investors may lose confidence in us and the trading price of our common stock may decline.Q1, 2026

Akebia Therapeutics Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (51)

Financial Indicators

DE:AX9 against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PLX	79Outperform	$208.68M	10.75	31.61%	―	30.14%	181.54%
Sector *	51Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
ELDN	46Neutral	$225.09M	-2.80	-136.45%	―	―	-1475.42%
EQ	46Neutral	$86.87M	-5.34	-41.15%	―	-100.00%	64.23%
RANI	42Neutral	$82.24M	-2.19	-129.93%	―	306.42%	70.84%
UNCY	41Neutral	$104.18M	-2.23	-88.81%	―	―	43.63%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

DE:AX9 and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
DE:AX9	Akebia Therapeutics	0.65	-1.25	-65.97%
PLX	Protalix Biotherapeutics	2.59	0.20	8.37%
ELDN	Eledon Pharmaceuticals, Inc.	2.77	-1.59	-36.47%
EQ	Equillium	1.37	-0.18	-11.61%
UNCY	Unicycive Therapeutics, Inc.	3.74	-0.70	-15.77%
RANI	Rani Therapeutics Holdings, Inc. Class A	0.59	-1.56	-72.56%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Akebia Therapeutics AI Stock Analysis