Allegiant Travel Company (AGH) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

For the fourth quarter, combined scheduled service growth is expected to be approximately 1.7% higher versus the fourth quarter of 2025, while combined capacity is expected to be roughly flat to the fourth quarter of '25; combined TRASM should exceed 20% on a year-over-year basis, fourth quarter TRASM is expected to set a record for the highest in the company's history, fuel cost is expected to be about $4.75 per gallon, operating margin approximately 6.5%, and consolidated earnings roughly $1.25 per share. Full year 2026 adjusted earnings per share guidance remains greater than $6, with the full year guide of greater than $6 including earnings from the Sun Country segment from the period after ownership. Fixed fee flying is expected to run at a small kind of low single digits kind of run rate going forward on an absolute basis, Sun Country scheduled service flying is expected to be down somewhere in the 10% range in the fourth quarter, and 2027 capacity growth could be up low single digits to maybe mid-single digits, with approximately 20 aircraft deliveries, around 45 MAX aircraft by year-end, more than $140 million in annual run rate synergies by 2029, 30-plus percent of ASMs probably for the combined company from the MAX fleet, and ASMs per gallon potentially reaching 88, maybe even closer to 90.