Aaon (AAO) AI Stock Analysis

Aaon

(XETRA:AAO)

Rating:―N/A

Action:N/A

Date:―

No summary available

Positive Factors

Backlog and Growth VisibilityThe upgraded sales outlook and backlog roughly double the prior year provide substantial forward revenue visibility. This supports production planning, capacity utilization and operating-scale benefits, while indicating that growth is supported by contracted demand rather than relying solely on near-term order momentum.

Negative Factors

Weak Free Cash FlowNegative trailing free cash flow and weak conversion of earnings into operating cash reduce financial flexibility despite strong reported growth. Sustained cash usage could constrain internally funded capacity expansion, increase reliance on financing, and make the business more sensitive to working-capital or investment demands.

Aaon (AAO) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)

Market Cap: EUR 5.61B
Dividend Yield: 0.54%
Average Volume (3M): 74
Price to Earnings (P/E): 35.0
Beta (1Y): 0.26
Revenue Growth: 43.13%
EPS Growth: 20.55%
Country: Germany
Employees: 5,897
Sector: Industrials
Sector Strength: 63
Industry: Industrial - Machinery

Aaon Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AAON, Inc., along with its affiliated companies, focuses on the engineering, manufacturing, promotion, and sale of heating and air conditioning systems throughout the United States and Canada. The enterprise's operations are divided into three distin...

Aaon Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 09, 2026(Q2-2026)|% Change Since:-20.98%|Next Earnings Date:Nov 08, 2026

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call presented a broadly positive operational and financial progress story: record revenue, double-digit EBITDA and EPS growth, exceptional BASX expansion, AAON brand share gains, improving cash flow and a rapidly ramping Memphis facility. Near-term margin pressure from mix, ramp-up overhead, outsourcing and inflationary cost timing were acknowledged as temporary headwinds, with management guiding to margin improvement in H2 (Q4 weighted) and providing an upgraded full-year sales growth outlook of 55%–60%. Given the strong revenue and profitability momentum, healthy backlog and visible actions to address cost pressures, the positives materially outweigh the temporary lowlights.

Positive Updates

Record Quarterly Revenue

Q2 net sales were a record $627.0 million, up 101% year-over-year and 26% sequentially, driven by higher throughput across facilities and successful capacity investments.

Negative Updates

Consolidated Gross Margin Pressure

Consolidated gross margin was 24.3% in Q2, down from 26.6% in Q2 2025 (a decline of ~230 basis points). Management attributes the decline to mix effects from rapid BASX/Memphis ramp, capacity ramp-up costs, increased outsourcing and inflationary price/cost timing.

Company Guidance

AAON updated 2026 guidance calls for sales growth of 55%–60%, gross margin of 25%–26%, SG&A of 13%–14% of sales, and depreciation & amortization of $95M–$100M; management said this reflects stronger-than-expected production, backlog conversion and execution. The guidance follows a very strong Q2 (net sales $627M, +101% YoY; gross profit $152.5M; gross margin 24.3% vs 26.6% a year ago; adjusted EBITDA $94.2M, +102.3%; adjusted diluted EPS $0.69, +213.6%), H1 operating cash flow +$55M (vs a $31M use prior year), cash + restricted cash $12.7M, debt $435M and leverage 1.48, YTD capex $102.6M, and backlog roughly double prior year levels. Management expects margin improvement into Q3–Q4 (Q4 weighted), driven by higher facility utilization, productivity gains, pricing and sourcing actions, with continued progress into 2027 and an AAON-brand implicit ~20% FY growth (BASX implied to more than double).

Aaon Risk Analysis

Aaon disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Aaon reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.

Legal & Regulatory - Litigation, compliance, new legislation, and taxation risks

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

Aaon Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

DE:AAO against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TT	71Outperform	$89.75B	29.06	36.01%	0.99%	10.34%	8.80%
MOD	68Neutral	$6.90B	46.19	12.64%	―	29.47%	-23.92%
LII	66Neutral	$11.77B	16.35	60.10%	1.50%	1.92%	-9.14%
Sector *	63Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
CARR	61Neutral	$43.88B	-25.00	-14.28%	1.74%	3.33%	-187.15%
MAIR	39Underperform	$11.62B	106.36	5.62%	―	―	―

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

DE:AAO and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
DE:AAO	Aaon Inc	61.80	-18.61	-23.14%
TT	Trane Technologies Plc	413.33	-15.63	-3.64%
LII	Lennox International	353.64	-132.77	-27.30%
MOD	Modine Manufacturing	123.34	-18.00	-12.74%
CARR	Carrier Global Corp.	55.17	-1.48	-2.62%
MAIR	Madison Air Solutions Corp. Class A	23.26	-8.49	-26.74%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Aaon AI Stock Analysis