Carlyle Group (3VU) AI Stock Analysis

Carlyle Group

(XETRA:3VU)

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Positive Factors

Fundraising ScaleRecord AUM of $485B and $56B of inflows over 12 months indicate broad fundraising traction across the platform. A larger capital base can support recurring management fees and deepen Carlyle’s institutional franchise, creating a durable foundation for future earnings.

Negative Factors

Revenue ContractionTTM revenue declined approximately 66% and earnings have been volatile, including a loss year in 2023. Such cyclicality indicates Carlyle’s results remain materially exposed to realizations, valuations and transaction conditions, making sustainable earnings progression less predictable.

Carlyle Group (3VU) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)

Market Cap: EUR 14.32B
Dividend Yield: 3.31%
Average Volume (3M): 236
Price to Earnings (P/E): 39.7
Beta (1Y): 0.82
Revenue Growth: -47.44%
EPS Growth: -72.63%
Country: Germany
Employees: 2,500
Sector: Financial
Sector Strength: 68
Industry: Asset Management

Carlyle Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Carlyle Group Inc. is a leading global investment firm that employs both direct investment and fund-of-fund strategies. Its direct investment expertise is extensive, encompassing management-led leveraged buyouts, privatizations, and divestitures,...

Carlyle Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026(Q2-2026)|% Change Since:-8.17%|Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call emphasized broad and multi-dimensional momentum: record distributed and fee-related earnings, industry-leading realizations and strong fundraising drove AUM to a record $485 billion and produced multiple segment-level records (AlpInvest, Global Credit, transaction fees). Management highlighted disciplined reinvestment in growth (AI/technology, wealth platform) and continued fundraising momentum into a declared 'super cycle.' Offsetting factors include quarter-to-quarter volatility in realized performance revenues, deliberate reinvestment pressure that keeps margins steady near 47%, and macro/seasonal risks (Middle East war, energy pressures, inflation, and historically quieter summer months) that could impact near-term timing. On balance, the positive operational and financial achievements materially outweigh the noted risks and timing uncertainties.

Positive Updates

Record Distributed Earnings and Fee-Related Earnings

Distributed earnings (DE) of $472 million in Q2 — the highest pretax DE quarter in nearly 4 years — and record fee-related earnings (FRE) of $358 million, up 11% year-over-year, with a 47% comp ratio/margin.

Negative Updates

Quarter-to-Quarter Volatility in Realized Performance Revenues

Net realized performance revenues increased more than fivefold from the prior quarter, but management emphasized that realizations are difficult to predict quarter-to-quarter and the third quarter historically sees lower transaction flow (seasonal risk to near-term revenue visibility).

Company Guidance

Management’s guidance emphasized continued fundraising and realization-driven earnings growth: they said the firm expects 2026 comp ratio/FRE margin to remain roughly in line with last year at about 47% (with margin expansion as flagship fund flows hit in 2027–28), and that nearly all core strategies will be in-market raising capital over the next few years to support the 3‑year strategic plan. Carlyle enters H2 after $30B of organic inflows in H1 and $56B over the last 12 months, with record AUM of $485B; current-quarter metrics include distributable earnings of $472M and record FRE of $358M. Net accrued performance revenues were $2.4B (≈$7 of pretax EPS), realizations returned ~$7B this quarter ($37B over 12 months), Global Credit’s Unum block should add >$5B AUM on close, the quarterly dividend was $0.35/share, $304M of buybacks were executed in the quarter and $1.6B remains on a $2B repurchase authorization.

Carlyle Group Risk Analysis

Carlyle Group disclosed 71 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Carlyle Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

Carlyle Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

DE:3VU against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BX	73Outperform	$147.36B	26.16	40.77%	4.41%	8.78%	28.70%
OWL	73Outperform	$16.11B	74.10	7.53%	8.81%	10.81%	67.68%
KKR	71Outperform	$84.73B	28.09	10.32%	0.81%	31.83%	48.98%
ARES	68Neutral	$42.33B	91.53	10.34%	4.03%	6.81%	-45.32%
Sector *	68Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
TPG	67Neutral	$17.95B	31.75	21.91%	4.80%	21.39%	193.47%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

DE:3VU and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
DE:3VU	The Carlyle Group Lp	35.98	-8.33	-18.80%
KKR	Kohlberg Kravis Roberts	94.39	-22.39	-19.17%
BX	Blackstone Group L.P.	118.51	-21.51	-15.36%
ARES	Ares Management Lp	128.15	-21.17	-14.18%
OWL	Blue Owl Capital Inc	10.33	-4.64	-30.99%
TPG	Tpg Inc Class A	46.68	-5.73	-10.94%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Carlyle Group AI Stock Analysis