Ibstock (2I5) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Ibstock guided that, despite a challenging market, it expects stronger adjusted EBITDA in H2 than H1 and a full‑year outcome around the lower end of current market expectations, with net debt of £151.3m and leverage of 2.5x at the half‑year expected to reduce towards ~2x by the end of 2026; H1 revenue was £164.2m (‑15% reported, ‑10% like‑for‑like) with adjusted EBITDA £25.7m (H1 2025: £35.5m), adjusted EPS 0.7p (vs 3p), an interim dividend of 0.5p, and adjusted free cash flow outflow of £22.3m (working capital outflow £17.3m); H1 clay revenue was £119.9m (core £118.1m, ‑8% LFL) with clay adjusted EBITDA £23.4m (19.5% margin) and a ~£5–6m deliberate EBITDA headwind from capacity/inventory actions, concrete revenue was £44.3m (‑26% reported, ‑11% LFL) with adjusted EBITDA £3.7m (8.3% margin), CapEx was £15.2m (c.£4m growth, £11m sustaining) and going forward sustaining CapEx is expected c.£20–25m; the June temporary energy/fuel surcharge (plus the Feb price increase) is expected to flow through for H2 with no further price rises planned, clay volumes are expected to improve low single digits H1→H2 (with production flexing if needed — c.45–55m fewer bricks in H2 vs H2 last year), Nostell/Futures net costs were £2.5m (orders in the low millions, enquiries in the tens of millions), and the group expects pricing actions and the normalization of CapEx and working capital to support deleveraging.