Vistra Corp (0V6) AI Stock Analysis

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Vistra Corp

(XETRA:0V6)

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Positive Factors

Strong Cash GenerationVistra’s recent operating and free cash flow provides substantial internal funding for debt reduction, growth projects, and shareholder returns. Although cash generation varies by year, the strong TTM rebound demonstrates meaningful earnings-to-cash conversion and supports financial flexibility over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

High LeverageElevated leverage reduces Vistra’s margin for error when power-market conditions weaken or refinancing costs rise. Debt obligations can absorb cash that might otherwise support investment or shareholder returns, while greater balance-sheet sensitivity makes maintaining credit metrics and deleveraging important ongoing priorities.

Vistra Corp (0V6) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)

Market Cap: EUR 41.89B
Dividend Yield: 0.72%
Average Volume (3M): 2,416
Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.7
Beta (1Y): 0.64
Revenue Growth: 12.85%
EPS Growth: 162.51%
Country: Germany
Employees: 6,390
Sector: Utilities
Sector Strength: 66
Industry: Independent Power Producers

Vistra Corp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vistra Corp., along with its various holdings, functions as a unified entity primarily engaged in retail electricity supply and power generation. The company organizes its operations across six distinct segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset, an...

Vistra Corp Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 06, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:10.40%|Next Earnings Date:Mar 03, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was strongly positive, supported by record third-quarter adjusted EBITDA, higher 2026 guidance, the completed Cogentrix acquisition, robust year-to-date growth, improving credit metrics, expanded share repurchases, and a substantial long-term free cash flow outlook. The company also emphasized strong customer demand and contracting opportunities. Offsetting concerns included lower near-term ERCOT prices, overstated interconnection queues, grid-connection delays, and political and regulatory uncertainty affecting project timing.

Positive Updates

Record Third-Quarter Adjusted EBITDA

Vistra delivered approximately $2.4 billion of adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter, a company record. Adjusted EBITDA of $2.378 billion increased more than 50% compared with the third quarter of 2025.

Negative Updates

Lower ERCOT Prices

ERCOT prices have been trending lower. Vistra attributed this to several factors, including some cryptocurrency-mining facilities coming offline to convert into data centers and the data-center audit and permitting pause.

Company Guidance

Vistra narrowed its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $7.1 billion to $7.5 billion and its 2026 adjusted free cash flow before growth guidance to $4.3 billion to $4.7 billion, and introduced 2027 guidance of $7.7 billion to $8.5 billion of adjusted EBITDA and $4.3 billion to $5.1 billion of adjusted free cash flow before growth. The Cogentrix transaction is expected to deliver high single-digit adjusted free cash flow accretion over the near term, increasing to double-digit accretion beginning in 2029. Vistra still sees load growth of 4% to 6% in ERCOT and 2% to 3% in PJM through 2030, adjusted free cash flow per share growing from just under $10.5 in 2025 to approximately $14 in 2027, and approximately 70% growth in adjusted free cash flow before growth per share from 2027 to 2030, with a 2030 free cash flow per share outlook of $24; its planning assumes $1 billion a year in share repurchases, $300 million a year in dividends, and roughly $3 billion a year of share repurchases.

Vistra Corp Risk Analysis

Vistra Corp disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vistra Corp reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

Vistra Corp Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (66)

Financial Indicators

DE:0V6 against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NEE	69Neutral	$182.36B	15.58	20.37%	2.80%	13.47%	76.73%
EXC	67Neutral	$47.21B	17.75	8.95%	3.64%	6.67%	-7.99%
Sector *	66Neutral	$17.65B	18.10	5.60%	3.62%	6.62%	11.55%
CEG	65Neutral	$88.56B	24.27	14.69%	0.67%	20.74%	7.00%
TLN	52Neutral	$14.73B	-59.72	-18.95%	―	20.33%	-214.53%
NRG	49Neutral	$18.56B	23.23	25.38%	2.15%	12.70%	54.89%

* Utilities Sector Average

Performance Comparison

DE:0V6 and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
DE:0V6	Vistra Corp.	111.68	-55.36	-33.14%
EXC	Exelon Corp.	45.62	1.39	3.14%
NEE	NextEra Energy Inc.	86.95	4.55	5.52%
NRG	NRG Energy Inc	88.29	-76.00	-46.26%
CEG	Constellation Energy Corporation	249.95	-108.98	-30.36%
TLN	Talen Energy Corp	338.64	-54.99	-13.97%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Vistra Corp AI Stock Analysis