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Dauch Corporation
(NYSE:DCH)
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Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$5.50
▼(-14.46% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/09/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial quality (losses, margin compression, negative free cash flow, and high leverage). Offsetting factors include a supportive technical setup (price above major moving averages with positive momentum) and a constructive earnings call with raised 2026 guidance, synergy progress, and improving adjusted free cash flow outlook. Valuation remains challenged due to negative earnings and no dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Revenue Scale
The acquisition materially expands Dauch’s revenue base and operating scale, while the combined portfolio broadens its customer and product footprint. Greater scale can improve purchasing leverage, support cross-selling, and create a stronger platform for sustained growth over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Profitability Compression
Revenue growth is not currently translating into sustainable earnings, as both gross and operating margins have weakened and the company remains loss-making. Persistent margin pressure would reduce internal funding capacity, limit resilience in a cyclical industry, and make the enlarged business harder to deleverage.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Scale
The acquisition materially expands Dauch’s revenue base and operating scale, while the combined portfolio broadens its customer and product footprint. Greater scale can improve purchasing leverage, support cross-selling, and create a stronger platform for sustained growth over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Dauch Corporation (DCH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.40B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.56M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.86
Revenue Growth40.98%
EPS Growth-406.06%
CountryUS
Employees18,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Parts
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.07
Shares Outstanding237,604,600
10 Day Avg. Volume3,133,253
30 Day Avg. Volume2,557,959
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.24
Price to Book (P/B)1.16
Price to Sales (P/S)0.13
P/FCF Ratio4.98
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$9.76Price Target Upside51.83% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)0.93
Revenue Forecast (FY)$10.72B
Dauch Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Dauch Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, engineers, and manufactures driveline and metal forming technologies that supports electric, hybrid, and internal combustion vehicles. It operates through two segments, Driveline and Meta...
Dauch Corporation Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive operational and financial trajectory for the newly combined company: materially higher adjusted EBITDA in dollars, a large improvement in adjusted free cash flow, concrete synergy realization ($70M run-rate to date) and an upward update to full-year guidance. These positives are balanced against meaningful integration and acquisition-related impacts on GAAP earnings, higher interest expense and elevated net debt (net leverage ~2.6x), as well as near-term launch-related production downtime and the longer timeline for certain procurement/operations synergies. On balance, the operational momentum, synergy progress and cash flow improvement outweigh the near-term financial and execution challenges.Positive Updates
Quarterly Sales and Scale from Acquisition
Reported Q2 2026 sales of $2.96B (company also referenced 'approximately $3.0B'), vs $1.54B in Q2 2025 (increase driven by the Dowlais acquisition and FX/metal pass-throughs); management noted that on an organic basis sales were in line with production levels and that Dowlais contributed ~$1.45B of gross sales in the quarter.
Negative Updates
GAAP Earnings Weakness Despite Adjusted Results
GAAP net income in Q2 2026 was ~$1M (near breakeven) versus $39.3M in Q2 2025 (down ~97%), while adjusted EPS declined to $0.32 from $0.34 (-~5.9%), reflecting acquisition, integration and one-time items that impacted GAAP profitability.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly Sales and Scale from Acquisition
Reported Q2 2026 sales of $2.96B (company also referenced 'approximately $3.0B'), vs $1.54B in Q2 2025 (increase driven by the Dowlais acquisition and FX/metal pass-throughs); management noted that on an organic basis sales were in line with production levels and that Dowlais contributed ~$1.45B of gross sales in the quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Dauch raised the low end of its 2026 guidance and now targets sales of $10.6–$10.8 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $1.36–$1.425 billion (including JV SDS equity income of $70–$80 million), and adjusted free cash flow of $260–$325 million; the guide is based on production assumptions of North America 15.1M units, Europe 16.9M, China 31.6M and global ~91.1M (with GM full‑size pickup/SUV production at 1.35–1.40M units and a model changeover beginning in September expected to cause temporary downtime), CapEx of 4.5%–5% of sales, an adjusted effective tax rate of ~25%–30% with cash taxes of ~$160–$170 million, and approximately 245 million shares for modeling.Dauch Corporation Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 8.22B | 5.84B | 6.12B | 6.08B | 5.80B | 5.16B |
| Gross Profit | 822.50M | 625.00M | 741.40M | 624.30M | 704.90M | 722.70M |
| EBITDA | 736.20M | 663.50M | 718.50M | 664.40M | 732.90M | 740.70M |
| Net Income | -165.40M | -19.70M | 35.00M | -33.60M | 64.30M | 5.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 11.05B | 6.67B | 5.06B | 5.36B | 5.47B | 5.64B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 880.80M | 708.90M | 552.90M | 519.90M | 511.50M | 530.20M |
| Total Debt | 5.29B | 4.17B | 2.74B | 2.89B | 3.13B | 3.23B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.53B | 6.03B | 4.50B | 4.75B | 4.84B | 5.18B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.51B | 640.00M | 562.80M | 604.90M | 627.30M | 457.80M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -30.70M | 149.30M | 204.30M | 199.40M | 273.50M | 357.20M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 306.90M | 411.60M | 455.40M | 396.10M | 448.90M | 538.40M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -511.10M | -169.60M | -254.80M | -184.50M | -243.00M | -161.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 506.60M | 1.40B | -156.20M | -205.50M | -217.20M | -401.40M |
Dauch Corporation Technical Analysis
Negative
6.43
Price Trends
6.16
Negative
6.07
Negative
6.35
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.17
Positive
32.46
Neutral
14.53
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DCH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.43 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.26, above the 50-day MA of 6.16, and above the 200-day MA of 6.35, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.53 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DCH.
Dauch Corporation Risk Analysis
Dauch Corporation disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Dauch Corporation reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Dauch Corporation Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $12.45B | 29.98 | 7.37% | 1.12% | 2.17% | 111.19% | |
65 Neutral | $2.46B | 16.61 | 9.71% | 1.50% | -1.13% | -47.30% | |
63 Neutral | $4.84B | 13.64 | -46.50% | 1.25% | 8.47% | 29.11% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
55 Neutral | $3.25B | -18.56 | -13.31% | 1.55% | -15.78% | -355.78% | |
55 Neutral | $1.41B | 29.80 | 2.77% | 3.48% | 4.98% | ― | |
51 Neutral | $1.40B | -5.32 | -15.15% | ― | 40.98% | -406.06% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
DCH
Dauch Corporation
5.46
-0.72
-11.65%
BWA
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61.32
17.80
40.91%
DAN
Dana Incorporated
27.14
7.42
37.62%
VC
Visteon
90.46
-31.12
-25.60%
ADNT
Adient
17.63
-7.01
-28.45%
GTX
Garrett Motion
25.72
12.15
89.47%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.