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CTO Realty Growth
(NYSE:CTO)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$22.00
▲(0.23% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/01/26
The score is driven primarily by a strong and constructive earnings update (raised FFO/AFFO guidance, strong NOI/leasing, improving leverage) and supportive valuation (high dividend yield with a mid-teens P/E). These positives are tempered by uneven historical financial performance and balance-sheet data inconsistencies, plus currently soft/neutral technical momentum.
Positive Factors
Strong leasing and NOI growth
Strong same-property NOI growth, high occupancy, and positive leasing spreads indicate durable tenant demand across the retail portfolio. This supports recurring rent growth, improves asset cash flows, and provides a foundation for continued earnings expansion as signed leases begin contributing.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Although leverage improved, a 5.8x net debt-to-EBITDA level still leaves CTO exposed to refinancing costs and interest-rate sensitivity. Debt may also fluctuate with acquisitions and dispositions, potentially limiting financial flexibility if deleveraging or asset sales take longer.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong leasing and NOI growth
Strong same-property NOI growth, high occupancy, and positive leasing spreads indicate durable tenant demand across the retail portfolio. This supports recurring rent growth, improves asset cash flows, and provides a foundation for continued earnings expansion as signed leases begin contributing.
Read all positive factors
CTO Realty Growth Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Separates rental and related income by property type or business line so you can see which segments drive the bulk of cash flow, identify growth engines, and assess dependence on any single market or tenant mix.
Separates rental and related income by property type or business line so you can see which segments drive the bulk of cash flow, identify growth engines, and assess dependence on any single market or tenant mix.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCTO Realty Growth (CTO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$759.83M
Dividend Yield7.76%
Average Volume (3M)384.73K
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.8
Beta (1Y)0.48
Revenue Growth14.26%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees42
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.42
Shares Outstanding37,485,455
10 Day Avg. Volume282,259
30 Day Avg. Volume384,729
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.87
Price to Book (P/B)1.05
Price to Sales (P/S)3.97
P/FCF Ratio9.20
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.84
Enterprise Value/Revenue8.69
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.52K
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.36
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$24.50Price Target Upside11.62% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)0.93
Revenue Forecast (FY)$176.79M
CTO Realty Growth Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
CTO Realty Growth, Inc., a publicly traded real estate enterprise headquartered in Florida, manages a diverse portfolio of income-generating properties. These assets span various markets throughout the United States, collectively encompassing arou...
How the Company Makes Money
CTO primarily makes money by generating recurring rental income from its commercial real estate portfolio. This includes base rent paid by tenants under lease agreements (typically multi-year leases) and may also include additional recoveries and ...
CTO Realty Growth Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial momentum: robust same-property NOI growth (10.1% for shopping centers), meaningful leasing activity and high occupancy (95.4%), raised FFO/AFFO guidance, materially increased investment-volume targets, and a high-yield structured investment book. Capital recycling and an accretive Dallas acquisition further support earnings growth. Headwinds noted were limited and manageable: an office vacancy being filled by the State of New Mexico, tougher Q3 comps due to unusually low bad debt in the prior year, one remaining anchor vacancy, near-term elevated taxes (largely non-cash), and leverage that remains elevated though improving. Overall, positives meaningfully outweigh the negatives, but timing and execution of certain pipeline and disposition items remain watch points.Positive Updates
Strong Same-Property NOI Growth
Shopping-center same property NOI increased 10.1% for the quarter versus prior year; total same property NOI (including noncore) increased 6.7% for the quarter and 4.5% for the six months ended June 30.
Negative Updates
Office Vacancy and One Large Tenant Move-Out
A tenant vacated 98k sq ft at the Albuquerque office property (part of 212k sq ft) in Dec 2025, negatively impacting year-to-date same property NOI; the State of New Mexico is expected to take possession and commence rent late 2026, and the asset is being prepared for sale (likely late 2026/early 2027).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Same-Property NOI Growth
Shopping-center same property NOI increased 10.1% for the quarter versus prior year; total same property NOI (including noncore) increased 6.7% for the quarter and 4.5% for the six months ended June 30.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised 2026 guidance, increasing core FFO to $2.09–$2.13 and AFFO to $2.21–$2.25 per diluted share (midpoint core FFO implies ~13% growth vs. 2025), and boosting investment volume guidance by >$100M to $300–$400M (from $175–$250M); key assumptions include shopping‑center same‑property NOI growth of 5%–6% (up from 3.5%–4.5%) and G&A of $20.0–$20.2M. They cited a $6.3M signed‑but‑not‑open pipeline (~5.8% of in‑place annual cash‑based rent) as a visible earnings tailwind, a target structured‑investment allocation of ~15% of undepreciated assets (pro forma structured book $222M, ~11.5% weighted yield), year‑to‑date investments of $234.2M at a 9.5% weighted yield (Q2 investments $153M at a 10.2% initial yield), dispositions of $90.7M at a 6.7% exit cap rate, total liquidity of $131.8M, and net debt to pro‑forma adjusted EBITDA of 5.8x (down 0.6x QoQ) with management expecting further deleveraging as the pipeline ramps.CTO Realty Growth Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 161.10M | 149.54M | 124.52M | 109.12M | 82.32M | 70.27M |
| Gross Profit | 922.00K | -8.41M | 91.30M | 78.94M | 59.46M | 47.84M |
| EBITDA | 123.22M | 97.48M | 75.03M | 71.70M | 46.56M | 55.78M |
| Net Income | 52.68M | 10.09M | -1.97M | 5.53M | 3.16M | 29.94M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.40B | 1.26B | 1.18B | 989.67M | 986.54M | 733.14M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 59.37M | 47.79M | 48.68M | 49.66M | 61.37M | 49.65M |
| Total Debt | 690.28M | 616.57M | 519.29M | 495.79M | 445.65M | 284.07M |
| Total Liabilities | 742.55M | 696.56M | 568.85M | 532.14M | 481.77M | 302.66M |
| Stockholders Equity | 663.18M | 567.35M | 612.80M | 457.53M | 504.77M | 430.48M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 14.19M | 64.60M | 59.87M | 46.42M | -257.83M | 27.58M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 66.94M | 64.60M | 59.87M | 46.42M | 56.10M | 27.58M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -123.67M | -71.50M | -232.67M | -52.56M | -267.63M | -102.97M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 81.40M | 30.66M | 172.35M | 2.77M | 201.38M | 72.91M |
CTO Realty Growth Technical Analysis
Negative
21.95
Price Trends
20.82
Negative
20.89
Negative
19.62
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.18
Positive
34.48
Neutral
15.63
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CTO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 21.95 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.45, above the 50-day MA of 20.82, and above the 200-day MA of 19.62, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.63 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CTO.
CTO Realty Growth Risk Analysis
CTO Realty Growth disclosed 95 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CTO Realty Growth reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
CTO Realty Growth Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $5.62B | 20.07 | 5.99% | 5.06% | 22.73% | 7.26% | |
69 Neutral | $3.41B | 22.67 | 5.00% | 6.78% | 6.71% | 46.35% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
64 Neutral | $759.83M | 13.76 | 8.92% | 7.76% | 14.26% | ― | |
59 Neutral | $567.29M | 21.91 | 11.69% | 10.32% | 10.78% | -30.46% | |
58 Neutral | $481.02M | 14.76 | 10.50% | 8.30% | 9.52% | 21.63% | |
57 Neutral | $516.26M | 360.25 | 0.36% | 6.24% | 8.87% | ― |
* Real Estate Sector Average
CTO
CTO Realty Growth
20.25
5.15
34.06%
GOOD
Gladstone Commercial
12.00
1.66
16.04%
OLP
One Liberty Properties
22.37
3.30
17.32%
EPRT
Essential Properties Realty
26.26
-4.25
-13.93%
BNL
Broadstone Net Lease
17.55
-0.05
-0.30%
FVR
FrontView REIT, Inc.
17.76
4.48
33.70%
CTO Realty Growth Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
CTO Realty Growth Secures Expanded $1 Billion Credit Facility
Positive
Sep 30, 2026
On September 29, 2026, CTO Realty Growth, Inc. entered into an amended and restated unsecured credit agreement with a KeyBank-led syndicate, establishing a $1.0 billion credit facility that replaces and expands its prior KeyBank arrangement. The p...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
CTO Realty Growth Posts Strong Q2 2026 Results
Positive
Jul 28, 2026
CTO Realty Growth reported second-quarter 2026 results on July 28, 2026, posting net income of $0.38 per diluted share, Core FFO of $0.53 per diluted share and AFFO of $0.55 per diluted share, marking a sharp improvement from prior-year losses. Th...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.