Churchill Downs AI Stock Analysis
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Churchill Downs (CHDN) AI Stock Analysis
Churchill Downs
(NASDAQ:CHDN)
CHDN scores well primarily on operating strength and a positive earnings outlook (record results, strong free cash flow, and substantial planned shareholder returns), supported by a reasonable P/E. The score is held back mainly by balance-sheet leverage risk and only mixed technical positioning (below longer-term moving averages).
Churchill Downs Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Adjusted EBITDA By SegmentShows profitability across different segments after removing one-time costs, offering a clearer picture of ongoing operational performance and efficiency.
Live & Historical Racing is driving bigger, predictable mid‑year EBITDA spikes (Derby season) and those peaks have grown year-over-year, while Wagering Services & Solutions is a steady, secular grower—signaling digital/contract scaling—and Gaming supplies a stable, gradually rising base. Offsetting these gains, the negative “Other” line is widening, compressing corporate margins. The business is becoming more recurring but remains highly seasonal and event‑concentrated, so investors should value growth in wagering services against concentrated cash flow and rising corporate overhead risk.
The FlyChurchill Downs (CHDN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $6.90B
- Dividend Yield
- 0.44%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 1.11M
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 15.6
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.50
- Revenue Growth
- 4.18%
- EPS Growth
- 16.31%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 7,800
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Sector Strength
- 61
- Industry
- Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
Churchill Downs Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Churchill Downs Incorporated (CDI) is a leading U.S. entertainment enterprise focused on horse racing, online wagering, and general gaming activities. Its extensive operations are categorized into three main divisions: Live and Historical Racing, Twi...
How the Company Makes Money
CHDN generates revenue primarily through a mix of casino gaming, horse racing-related operations, and online wagering/interactive gaming. (1) Casino gaming (historically reported as the largest contributor) monetizes customer visitation at its region...
Churchill Downs Earnings Call Summary
The call was strongly positive overall. The company reported record revenue and adjusted EBITDA, strong Kentucky and Gaming segment performance, robust free cash flow, increasing Derby demand, progress on regional asset sales, and multiple growth initiatives across the Derby, HRM and TwinSpires platforms. The main challenges were competitive pressure and a new tax affecting Central Virginia, a $6 million year-over-year decline in Virginia adjusted EBITDA excluding a prior-year insurance recovery, and the fact that the TCS and certain HRM product initiatives still require execution and ramp-up.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
Management expects to announce executed transactions for 9 regional gaming properties by year-end and expects bank leverage to remain around 3.8x to 3.9x through year-end and decline below 3.0x following completion of the regional gaming asset sales; 2026 maintenance capital is expected to be $90 million to $100 million, 2026 project capital $160 million to $180 million, and 2027 project capital between $200 million and $250 million. Derby 153 ticket sales are up about 25% so far compared to last year, with about 40% of the ticket inventory allocated for sale sold; Victory Run is on schedule and on budget for Derby 2028, with an interim upgraded seating experience for Derby 2027. The Thoroughbred Championship Series begins in 2027 with a 6-race Derby Division and 4-race Oaks Division, an incremental $5 million in prize money, a $1 million prize pool for the Oaks Division and up to an additional $1 million bonus; craps ETGs are planned around the end of the year and blackjack ETGs in 2027. Rockingham Grand Casino is expected to open on time and on budget in mid-2027 with around 800 to 850 HRMs and slots, 32 table games and a large event center; the Collinsville venue is expected to be a 150-unit HRM venue approximately 45 to 60 minutes from Winston-Salem and Greensboro, while 2 referendums could enable 2 facilities, each with 150 machines, representing 415 incremental HRMs against approximately 4,700 currently deployed and a right to deploy 5,000 HRMs across 10 sites. The company repurchased more than $48 million of shares during the third quarter and an additional $76 million from October 1 through October 27, authorized a new $750 million share repurchase program, and approved a 7% dividend increase payable on January 5, 2027.
Churchill Downs Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong operating profile supported by the income statement (78) and improving cash generation (cash flow score 70) with meaningful TTM free cash flow. The primary constraint is balance-sheet risk (balance sheet score 52) due to high leverage and elevated debt-to-equity, which reduces financial flexibility if conditions soften.
Income Statement
78PositiveBalance Sheet
52NeutralCash Flow
70Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.00B | 2.93B | 2.73B | 2.46B | 1.81B | 1.60B |
| Gross Profit | 1.12B | 982.60M | 938.50M | 795.70M | 566.40M | 446.10M |
| EBITDA | 1.16B | 1.07B | 1.07B | 1.01B | 875.10M | 536.80M |
| Net Income | 451.80M | 379.70M | 426.80M | 417.30M | 439.40M | 249.10M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.47B | 7.48B | 7.28B | 6.96B | 6.21B | 2.98B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 167.00M | 288.50M | 175.50M | 144.50M | 129.80M | 291.30M |
| Total Debt | 4.73B | 5.20B | 4.92B | 4.84B | 4.61B | 1.97B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.06B | 6.43B | 6.17B | 6.06B | 5.66B | 2.67B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.38B | 1.01B | 1.08B | 893.60M | 551.50M | 306.80M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 529.70M | 309.60M | 225.70M | -70.70M | 80.00M | 243.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 756.00M | 769.80M | 772.70M | 605.80M | 536.80M | 335.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -228.10M | -471.50M | -545.20M | -718.00M | -3.10B | -100.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -537.90M | -262.50M | -196.60M | 129.30M | 2.42B | -500.00K |
Churchill Downs Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CHDN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 100.64 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 90.27, above the 50-day MA of 84.53, and above the 200-day MA of 87.98, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 5.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.24 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.55 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CHDN.
Churchill Downs Risk Analysis
Churchill Downs disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Churchill Downs reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Latest Risks Added
2 New RisksChurchill Downs Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
MCRI74Outperform- CHDN70Outperform
RRR55Neutral
BYD53Neutral
PENN52Neutral
CZR43Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCRI | 74Outperform | $1.94B | 17.38 | 20.60% | 1.07% | 4.78% | 13.86% |
| CHDN | 70Outperform | $6.99B | 15.60 | 37.45% | 0.44% | 4.18% | 16.31% |
| Sector * | 61Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% |
| RRR | 55Neutral | $5.22B | 19.68 | 68.00% | 4.07% | 1.14% | -37.73% |
| BYD | 53Neutral | $5.53B | 11.71 | 19.89% | 1.01% | 0.33% | -71.04% |
| PENN | 52Neutral | $2.47B | -270.09 | -0.50% | ― | 6.72% | 98.91% |
| CZR | 43Neutral | $5.97B | -11.18 | -15.71% | ― | 3.08% | -128.00% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHDN | Churchill Downs | 100.64 | 1.21 | 1.21% | |
| BYD | Boyd Gaming Corp | 77.50 | -2.55 | -3.18% | |
| MCRI | Monarch Casino & Resort | 111.94 | 16.71 | 17.55% | |
| PENN | PENN Entertainment | 18.15 | 3.35 | 22.64% | |
| CZR | Caesars Entertainment Inc | 29.28 | 9.53 | 48.25% | |
| RRR | Red Rock Resorts Inc | 50.18 | -6.86 | -12.03% |
Churchill Downs Corporate Events
Churchill Downs adds independent director to expanded board
PositiveOn October 27, 2026, Churchill Downs Incorporated expanded its Board of Directors and appointed investment veteran Michael Tucker as a Class II director, with his term running until the 2028 Annual Meeting of Shareholders. The Board determined Tucker...
Churchill Downs Announces Expanded $750 Million Buyback Plan
PositiveOn October 27–28, 2026, Churchill Downs Incorporated’s board approved a new $750 million share repurchase program, replacing its prior $500 million authorization from July 2025 and rolling in the $306 million still remaining under that earlier plan....
Churchill Downs Extends Credit Facilities and Adds Term Loan
PositiveOn September 28, 2026, Churchill Downs Incorporated closed an amendment to its senior secured credit agreement, extending the maturity of its revolving credit facility and term loan A from 2029 to 2031 and adjusting pricing to a SOFR-based spread lin...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Oct 29, 2026