Tesla Faces Challenges: Discrepancies in Delivery Estimates and Chinese Market Struggles Lead to Sell RatingWe believe the Street’s Q3 delivery estimate for Tesla is recklessly low, and in this note we lay out why. But don’t confuse better deliveries with better earnings: even if deliveries surprise to the upside, our model still points to Tesla missing Consensus’ Q3 GAAP-EPS forecast. Looking ahead to 4Q25E, however, the picture gets even more concerning – i.e., both revenue and GAAP- EPS appear set up for what can only be described as a frightening print. China Update. Tesla sold 15,350 cars last week in China, modestly ahead of our 14,650 estimate – a rare win for Tesla in China. Through 11 weeks, Tesla has moved 128,710 units in Q3, well ahead of the pace in 1Q25A and 2Q25A (which were both sub-100k at the same point in the quarter).