On Holding AG (49G) AI Stock Analysis

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On Holding AG

(BX Swiss:49G)

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Positive Factors

Revenue and margin scaleStrong revenue growth is being accompanied by unusually high gross margins and rising net income, indicating that On is scaling without sacrificing profitability. This combination supports continued investment in product innovation, stores, technology and marketing while strengthening the brand’s ability to compound earnings.

Negative Factors

Promotional and inventory pressurePersistent promotion in wholesale can pressure realized pricing and make margin targets harder to sustain, even with current full-price discipline. Higher inventory also increases the need for careful assortment and sell-through management, creating a potential drag on cash conversion if demand or channel conditions weaken.

On Holding AG Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

On Holding AG, together with its subsidiaries, develops and distributes performance sports products under the On brand in Switzerland, the rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the United States, the rest of the Americas, and the Asia-Pacific. The...

On Holding AG Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 10, 2026(Q3-2026)|Next Earnings Date:Mar 18, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was strongly positive. Record revenue, the highest underlying gross margin and adjusted EBITDA margin in company history, strong cash generation, broad regional and category growth, successful product launches and raised margin guidance significantly outweighed the limited challenges around promotional conditions, timing shifts, softer online traffic, LightSpray supply constraints and expected moderation in Asia Pacific growth.

Positive Updates

Record Revenue and Margin Expansion

Q3 net sales reached a record CHF 931.4 million, growing 17.8% at constant currency and 17.2% reported. Underlying gross margin, excluding tariff refunds, reached a record 66.9%, while adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 130 basis points to a record 21.9%.

Negative Updates

DTC Slightly Below Internal Bar in Q3

Management said it landed slightly below its exceptionally high internal bar in Q3. DTC was slightly below expectations after Q2 was above expectations, although management characterized this as quarterly fluctuation rather than a trend.

Company Guidance

On reiterated full year net sales growth in the low 20s at constant currency and expects growth to accelerate in the fourth quarter, predominantly DTC-led; it raised full-year gross margin guidance from at least 65% to around 66%, excluding tariff refunds, and expects an adjusted EBITDA margin in the range of 19.5% to 20%, excluding tariff refunds, or a gross margin of around 67.5% and an adjusted EBITDA margin in the range of 21% to 21.5%, including tariff refunds. Asia Pacific growth is expected to move closer to the mid- to high 20s corridor through 2029, while no outlook was given for quarter 4 per region. For the 3-year plan, growth is expected to start at the high end of the high teens range and end at the lower end of the range, not linear, with new sports launching gradually in 2027; LightSpray’s 10% penetration target is directional and could be reached by '29 or 2030 or '28.

On Holding AG Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

CH:49G against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DECK	78Outperform	$11.80B	11.21	43.56%	―	6.30%	11.78%
CROX	76Outperform	$7.32B	11.59	48.76%	―	0.70%	329.45%
WWW	70Outperform	$1.80B	12.62	32.99%	1.75%	7.31%	―
BIRK	66Neutral	$6.51B	17.60	12.12%	―	19.55%	19.15%
Sector *	61Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
NKE	40Underperform	$56.92B	18.03	21.24%	4.34%	-1.36%	6.80%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

CH:49G and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
CROX	Crocs	156.88	83.49	113.76%
DECK	Deckers Outdoor	84.53	1.71	2.06%
NKE	Nike Inc	37.76	-24.36	-39.22%
WWW	Wolverine World Wide	22.87	7.78	51.57%
BIRK	Birkenstock Holding plc	35.70	-4.44	-11.06%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

On Holding AG AI Stock Analysis