Commercial National Financial (CEFC) AI Stock Analysis

Commercial National Financial

(Other OTC:CEFC)

Select Model

Rating:76Outperform

Price Target:$18.00▲(13.53% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:08/06/26

The score is primarily driven by solid financial performance (healthy profitability, improving leverage, and steady cash generation) and supportive technical strength (price above key moving averages with positive momentum). Valuation is also favorable with a moderate P/E and a ~3.6% dividend yield, while some margin and cash flow variability and a 2025 debt uptick prevent a higher score.

Positive Factors

Cash generationConsistent operating cash flow and FCF near parity with net income mean earnings are largely cash-backed. Over 2-6 months this durability supports dividend maintenance, steadier capital allocation and reduced need for short-term external funding, improving resilience across economic cycles.

Negative Factors

Margin volatilityYear-to-year swings in operating margins reduce predictability of earnings and make capital planning harder. Structural margin variability can signal sensitivity to funding costs or revenue mix, limiting confidence in sustained earnings power and complicating long-term strategic decisions.

Commercial National Financial (CEFC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $62.85M
Dividend Yield: 3.72%
Average Volume (3M): 2,130
Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.1
Beta (1Y): 0.28
Revenue Growth: -1.54%
EPS Growth: 3.05%
Country: US
Employees: 95
Sector: Financial
Sector Strength: 68
Industry: Banks - Regional

Commercial National Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Commercial National Financial Corporation operates as the holding company for Commercial Bank that provides various banking products and services to individuals, agricultural and commercial businesses, and light industries in Michigan. It accepts var...

Commercial National Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong overall fundamentals supported by solid revenue momentum, healthy profitability, improving leverage versus earlier years, and generally good cash conversion. The score is tempered by margin volatility (including a 2024 operating margin inconsistency), a rise in total debt in 2025, and uneven free cash flow growth.

Income Statement

78Positive

Balance Sheet

71Positive

Cash Flow

74Positive

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	28.12M	28.15M	29.17M	27.39M	25.63M	21.71M
Gross Profit	23.06M	22.35M	21.08M	20.37M	22.62M	19.30M
EBITDA	8.30M	8.05M	8.16M	8.57M	10.87M	8.45M
Net Income	6.82M	6.61M	5.86M	6.17M	8.08M	6.37M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	564.72M	554.21M	566.64M	579.16M	613.75M	610.80M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	37.65M	57.37M	57.33M	36.68M	70.03M	49.44M
Total Debt	18.31M	23.31M	14.95M	27.40M	32.40M	47.80M
Total Liabilities	510.12M	497.93M	516.11M	532.35M	574.44M	565.91M
Stockholders Equity	54.60M	56.28M	50.53M	46.81M	39.31M	44.89M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0	6.26M	4.82M	5.67M	7.99M	4.41M
Operating Cash Flow	0	6.45M	6.19M	6.70M	8.85M	5.24M
Investing Cash Flow	0	15.88M	34.91M	9.47M	17.00M	-76.15M
Financing Cash Flow	0	-20.54M	-18.45M	-44.31M	6.51M	56.86M

Commercial National Financial Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

CEFC against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OPHC	83Outperform	$115.50M	5.29	16.39%	―	24.01%	20.16%
CEFC	76Outperform	$62.87M	9.11	12.20%	3.72%	-1.54%	3.05%
ASRV	70Outperform	$83.42M	9.14	7.48%	2.44%	2.43%	75.47%
Sector *	68Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
TCBS	65Neutral	$49.87M	14.34	6.14%	1.44%	5.94%	51.02%
HFBL	64Neutral	$69.25M	10.68	11.12%	2.43%	7.94%	43.98%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

CEFC and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
CEFC	Commercial National Financial Corporation	15.86	3.90	32.60%
ASRV	AmeriServ Financial, Inc.	4.91	1.88	62.15%
HFBL	Home Federal Bancorp Inc. Of Louisiana	22.85	6.90	43.23%
OPHC	Optimumbank	9.15	5.05	123.17%
TCBS	Texas Community Bancshares, Inc.	17.36	1.70	10.83%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 06, 2026

Commercial National Financial AI Stock Analysis