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Canadian Tire (CDNTF) AI Stock Analysis

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CDNTF

Canadian Tire

(Other OTC:CDNTF)

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Positive Factors
Digital and eCommerce GrowthRapid eCommerce growth demonstrates that CTC is extending customer reach beyond physical stores and improving digital engagement. Higher conversion and average order values can support durable sales productivity, while digital harmonization and ship-to-home capabilities strengthen the multi-banner retail model.
Negative Factors
Flat Revenue and Volatile ProfitabilityA history of broadly flat revenue and uneven margins suggests CTC has not yet established consistent multi-year earnings momentum. Profit swings can constrain investment planning and make results more sensitive to category mix, demand conditions and execution across its retail banners.

Canadian Tire Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Revenue by SegmentShows how different business segments contribute to overall sales, highlighting areas of strength and potential growth or decline within Canadian Tire's diverse operations.

C$0.00C$1.00BC$2.00BC$3.00BC$4.00BC$5.00BMar 21Jun 21Sep 21Dec 21Mar 22Jun 22Sep 22Dec 22Mar 23Jun 23Sep 23Dec 23Mar 24Jun 24Sep 24Dec 24Mar 25Jun 25Sep 25Dec 25Mar 26Jun 26
Chart Insights

Canadian Tire's Retail segment shows fluctuating revenue with a recent dip in Q1 2025, reflecting potential retail environment uncertainties. However, the earnings call highlights robust strategic execution, with a 13% increase in retail EBITDA and strong loyalty program engagement. Financial Services and CT REIT segments maintain steady growth, underscoring diversification benefits. Despite macroeconomic challenges and anticipated cost pressures, Canadian Tire's strategic focus on growth and efficiency through its True North transformation strategy suggests resilience and potential for sustained performance improvements.

Data provided by:The Fly

Canadian Tire (CDNTF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%CDNTF-6.77%SPY+11.79%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
$5.77B
Dividend Yield
3.40%
Average Volume (3M)
3
Price to Earnings (P/E)
15.7
Beta (1Y)
0.45
Revenue Growth
1.84%
EPS Growth
-6.31%
Country
US
Employees
13,973
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Sector Strength
61
Industry
Specialty Retail

Canadian Tire Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Canadian Tire Corporation, Limited serves the Canadian market with a diverse portfolio of retail goods and consumer services. The company's operations are divided into three primary segments: Retail, CT REIT, and Financial Services. The Retail segmen...

Canadian Tire Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 12, 2026(Q2-2026)|% Change Since:-1.06%|Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call presented a net-positive picture: strong headline metrics (EPS +10%), banner-level momentum (SportChek and Mark's), robust eCommerce growth and margin improvement offset weather-driven softness at Canadian Tire Retail and some timing/investment-related pressure on SG&A and inventory. Management emphasized strategic progress — AI pricing, MOSaiC customer intelligence, digital harmonization, loyalty expansion — and maintained confidence in full-year margin targets and a path to long-term growth. Short-term operational challenges (weather, dealer restocking, elevated bank SG&A and receivable dynamics) were acknowledged but framed as manageable and largely timing or environment-driven.

Positive Updates

Earnings per Share Growth
Diluted normalized EPS of $3.94, up 10% year-over-year, driven by higher Retail IBT, a lower share count and a favorable blended tax rate.

Negative Updates

Canadian Tire (CTR) Weather-Driven Weakness
CTR comparable sales declined 0.8% year-over-year in Q2 (but were +5.5% on a 2-year stack); management attributed declines to unusually wet spring/summer with major outdoor categories (e.g., Gardening, summer climate control) driving more than 100% of the sales challenge.

Company Guidance

Guidance and outlook highlighted a full‑year retail gross margin “North Star” target of 35%+ (Q2 margin excl. Petroleum 35.1%, +33 bps y/y) while expecting some Q3 headwinds from higher transportation fuel surcharges and targeted investments; CapEx is now guided to $450–$500 million in 2026 with 30 store refresh projects completed in H1 and the pipeline to more than double by year‑end (modestly below an original 70‑project plan); the company expects eCommerce to continue to significantly outpace bricks‑and‑mortar (eCom comps +12% YTD, CTR eCom +14%), plans to lean into digital and loyalty (Triangle sales +3.5%, >2 million active loyalty members, CT Money issuance rising) and to keep investing in bank‑related growth (CTFS GAAR +4.2%) even as CTFS SG&A is expected to run at ~28% through H2; other Q2 metrics to anchor models include diluted normalized EPS $3.94 (+10% y/y), consolidated comparable sales +0.7% (SportChek +8%, Mark’s +4.2%, CTR -0.8% / 2‑yr stack +5.5%), retail revenue -1.1% (retail sales excl. Petroleum +2.5%), Retail IBT $201M (+1.2%), normalized retail EBITDA $498M (+2.2%), Retail ROIC 11.1% (+80 bps), corporate inventory +7% (CTR dealer inventory +1%), allowance $935M (allowance rate 11.8%), aging 3.3% and net write‑off ~7.2%, plus ongoing buybacks ($85M repurchased in Q2).

Canadian Tire Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

CDNTF against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
TSE:LNFTSE:LNF69NeutralCAD 1.80B11.3912.76%5.57%-0.15%-2.29%
TSE:GBTTSE:GBT68NeutralCAD 399.74M10.056.81%2.86%-1.49%44.76%
TSE:PETTSE:PET63NeutralCAD 1.34B13.76110.16%2.56%5.62%7.18%
Sector *61Neutral$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-40%-20%0%CDNTFTSE:GBTTSE:LNFTSE:PETDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
CDNTF and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
CDNTFCanadian Tire Corp157.21-16.17-9.33%
TSE:GBTBMTC Group Inc.12.57-0.45-3.45%
TSE:LNFLeon's Furniture26.20-2.09-7.38%
TSE:PETPet Valu Holdings Ltd.19.95-14.89-42.74%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.