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CareDx (CDNA) Q3 2026 Earnings Report
CDNA Q3 2026 EPS Results
- Actual EPS
- $0.70
- Consensus EPS
- $0.26
- Beat/Miss
- Beat by +$0.44
- One Year Ago EPS
- $0.03
CDNA Q3 2026 Revenue Results
- Actual Revenue
- $139.36M
- Expected Revenue
- $121.96M
- Beat/Miss
- Beat by +$17.41M
- YoY Revenue Growth
- +39.29%
Earnings Announcement Details
- Quarter
- Q3 2026
- Date
- 10/29/2026
- Time
- After Close
- Conference Call
- Thursday, October 29, 2026
CDNA Upcoming Earnings
CareDx's next earnings date is estimated for March 3, 2027, based on past reporting schedules.
Q3 2026 Earnings Call Audio
CDNA Q3 2026 Earnings Call
0:00 / 0:00
Q3 2026 Earnings Slide Deck
Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Sentiment|Positive
The call was strongly positive, characterized by broad-based revenue and testing-volume growth, higher margins and EBITDA, increased full-year guidance, a strong cash position, continued transplant adoption, progress integrating NavDx and advancing AlloHeme and HistoMap. The main limitations were the contribution from out-of-period revenue, the early nature of some NavDx evidence, the later expected timing of AlloHeme coverage and revenue, and the relatively small stated HistoMap market.
Company Guidance
CareDx increased 2026 full year revenue guidance by $30 million to $520 million to $530 million, or $525 million, with 38% year-over-year growth at the midpoint of the range, and full year adjusted EBITDA guidance by $23 million to $90 million to $100 million, or $95 million at the midpoint of the range and 18% of revenue; Q4 2026 assumptions include total revenue of $131 million to $141 million, or 25% year-over-year growth at the $136 million midpoint of the range, testing services revenue of $112 million to $122 million, or 50% year-over-year growth at the $117 million midpoint of the range, 76,000 to 80,000 tests, or 47% year-over-year growth at the 78,000 midpoint of the range, transplant volume of 61,000 to 63,000 tests, or 17% year-over-year growth at the 62,000 test midpoint of the range, 15,000 to 17,000 specialty oncology tests, approximately $1,500 revenue per test, 71% to 72% non-GAAP gross margins, non-GAAP operating expenses of approximately $79 million, plus or minus $2 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $16 million to $26 million, or $21 million at the midpoint of the range, representing approximately 15% of revenue; the company expects AlloHeme commercial launch in the first quarter of 2027, HistoMap broader commercial availability in 2027, solid organ transplant growth of 15% year-over-year in 2027, NavDx growth of 30% to 40% for the next 2 years, through 2027, and previously anticipated coverage for AlloHeme likely in '28 with significant revenues in 2029.
- Strong Third-Quarter Financial PerformanceThird-quarter revenue was $139 million, up 39% year over year and 6% sequentially. Testing volume reached 75,900 tests, up 51% year over year and 31% sequentially. Non-GAAP gross margin was 74%, compared with 71% in the prior-year quarter, and adjusted EBITDA was $30 million, or 22% of revenue, doubling from $15 million.
- Increased Full-Year 2026 GuidanceCareDx increased 2026 revenue guidance by $30 million to $520 million to $530 million, representing 38% year-over-year growth at the $525 million midpoint. Full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance increased by $23 million to $90 million to $100 million, or $95 million at the midpoint and 18% of revenue.
- Strong Cash Position and Operating Cash FlowThe company ended the quarter with $250 million in cash and cash equivalents and no debt. Cash flow from operations was $13 million, including $11 million in seller-funded transaction expenses paid after closing and $1.5 million in option-related compensation paid post-close to specialty oncology employees.
- Testing Services and Transplant GrowthTesting services revenue was $119 million, up 65% year over year and 19% sequentially, representing 86% of total revenue compared with 72% in the prior-year quarter. Excluding $15 million of out-of-period revenue, testing services revenue increased 58% year over year and 24% sequentially, while transplant revenue increased 39% year over year and 9% sequentially.
- Specialty Oncology Expansion Through NavDxSpecialty oncology revenue was $12.5 million in the quarter. Compared with Naveris' reported results before the acquisition, specialty oncology revenue grew 37% year over year and 5% sequentially, at the higher end of the previously estimated 30% to 40% range. Specialty oncology volume was 15,150 tests and grew 35% year over year on the same illustrative basis.
- Improving Revenue per TestTesting-services revenue per test, including specialty oncology, increased 9% year over year, driven by a 22% year-over-year improvement in transplant revenue per test. Excluding out-of-period revenue, revenue per test was $1,377, up 4% year over year. Excluding specialty oncology, transplant revenue per test was $1,514, up 15% year over year, while specialty oncology revenue per test was $823, above the prior forecast of $775.
- Transplant Franchise MomentumTransplant testing grew 21% year over year in the quarter and reached 50,750 tests, up 5% sequentially. Kidney testing continued to grow well over 20% year over year, lung had a very strong quarter, and heart continued to grow in the mid-teens. Management said adoption continued across kidney, lung and heart surveillance protocols and other contexts of care.
- Expansion Opportunity in Lung TransplantManagement said lung has the lowest current volume base among the three organ segments and expects it to grow faster for some time. Lung patients generated more tests per patient in year one than patients in other adopted organ segments, and the company said its AlloHome remote-monitoring and spirometry solution has been well received by clinicians. Current mix was approximately 45% kidney, 45% heart and 10% lung.
- Clinical Evidence Supporting AlloSure KidneyIn the KOAR registry, among 131 patients with borderline changes or T cell-mediated rejection on biopsy, an AlloSure Kidney result of 1% or higher around the time of biopsy was independently associated with a nearly threefold higher risk of graft loss or a decline in kidney function of 30% or more. In a multinational randomized trial of 332 kidney transplant recipients, an AlloSure-based monitoring strategy resulted in 49% fewer biopsies between months 3 and 12, with similar rates of death, graft loss and acute rejection and no statistically significant difference in kidney function at 12 months.
- Progress on AlloHeme and HistoMap KidneyBoth organic pipeline programs remained on track. The ACROBAT Clinical Validation Steering Committee submitted the initial AlloHeme trial manuscript for peer review, and AlloHeme identified molecular relapse a median of 41 days before clinical diagnosis in data presented at Tandem. CLIA readiness activities are expected to be completed before year-end, supporting a planned first-quarter 2027 commercial launch. HistoMap Kidney's second independent validation study was published in Transplantation, and the company remains focused on completing CLIA readiness activities before year-end for broader commercial availability in 2027.
- HistoMap Evidence in Microvascular InflammationIn the published HistoMap study, among patients with microvascular inflammation, 50% of those molecularly classified as high risk of rejection experienced graft loss over follow-up of up to six years, compared with 15% of those classified as low risk, demonstrating more than a threefold difference in long-term graft outcomes.
- NavDx Evidence in Radiation De-escalationTwo independent Phase II studies presented at ASTRO evaluated NavDx in radiation de-escalation settings for HPV-driven head and neck cancer. In a 35-patient postoperative study, cancer control in the treated region was 97% at 12 and 24 months, with favorable patient-reported swallowing function at one year. In a separate study, 12 of the first 15 patients had a greater than 95% decline in NavDx score by week four, received a lower radiation dose than the current standard and achieved complete response at three months, with no cancer returning in the treated region at the interim analysis.
- NavDx Prognostic Evidence and Broader Use CasesA newly published eight-center study of 332 patients found that patients whose NavDx results remained positive during the early period after definitive radiation faced a much greater risk of recurrence, while no recurrences were observed among patients whose results later became negative. Investigators are also evaluating NavDx in additional treatment decision-making contexts, including radiation de-escalation.
- NavDx Integration and Revenue Cycle ExecutionFollowing the July 1 acquisition, CareDx expanded its commercial and medical field teams, enabled electronic ordering through its care portal, increased use of standard surveillance orders and began integrating NavDx ordering into Epic Aura, with Epic-based ordering expected to begin by January 1, 2027. On October 1, NavDx was moved onto the CareDx billing platform and 100% of revenue-cycle-management workflows were brought in-house. Management said it was already seeing revenue-cycle-collection momentum.
- Transplant Workflow and Patient Engagement ExpansionThe company had 21 transplant centers live on Epic Aura and expected half of transplant orders to flow through EMR integrations by year-end. CareDx also launched a patient website and patient portal connecting kidney, heart and lung transplant patients to AlloSure results; more than 5,000 patients had registered as of the call.
- Operational Discipline and Margin ManagementOperating expenses remained around $75 million from the second to the third quarter, despite approximately $1.5 million of transaction-related spending in the third quarter. Management stated that the company had positive net income in all three quarters of 2026 and in the third quarter of 2025, while adjusted EBITDA increased 23% sequentially.
- Planned 2027 Commercial Launches and Digital IntegrationAlloHeme is planned to launch in the first quarter of 2027 with a limited, targeted team focused on leading stem-cell and bone-marrow transplant centers. Management said AlloHeme would launch natively on Epic Aura, with 100% of ordering expected to flow through EMR integration on day one. HistoMap Kidney will be promoted by the existing AlloSure Kidney field team.
- Long-Term Revenue and Data Platform OpportunitiesManagement reiterated prior long-range assumptions of 15% year-over-year growth for solid-organ transplant and 30% to 40% growth for NavDx through 2027, and suggested using fourth-quarter ASP guidance as a modeling basis for 2027. CareDx also said it continues to invest in its VANTx data platform, which includes statistical and open-learning models for clinicians, and is developing a strategy to use specialty-oncology data similarly.
CDNA Earnings History
| Report Date | Fiscal Quarter | Forecast / EPS | Last Year's EPS | EPS YoY Change | Press Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 03, 2027 | 2026 (Q4) | 0.36- | 0.12 | ― | ― |
| Oct 29, 2026 | 2026 (Q3) | 0.260.70 | 0.03 | 2233.33% (+0.67) | |
| Jul 30, 2026 | 2026 (Q2) | 0.230.37 | -0.16 | 331.25% (+0.53) | |
| Apr 28, 2026 | 2026 (Q1) | 0.130.34 | -0.19 | 278.95% (+0.53) | |
| Feb 24, 2026 | 2025 (Q4) | 0.020.12 | 1.51 | -92.05% (-1.39) | |
| Nov 04, 2025 | 2025 (Q3) | -0.080.03 | -0.14 | 121.43% (+0.17) | |
| Aug 06, 2025 | 2025 (Q2) | -0.10-0.16 | -0.03 | -433.33% (-0.13) | |
| Apr 30, 2025 | 2025 (Q1) | -0.21-0.19 | -0.32 | 40.63% (+0.13) | |
| Feb 26, 2025 | 2024 (Q4) | -0.411.51 | -2.21 | 168.33% (+3.72) | |
| Nov 04, 2024 | 2024 (Q3) | -0.25-0.14 | -0.43 | 67.44% (+0.29) |
The table shows recent earnings report dates and whether the forecast was beat or missed. See the change in forecast and EPS from the previous year.
Beat Missed
